Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari

To develop indicator–based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non–specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio–economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process–based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator–based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and land–owning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil–based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator–based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community.     

State forestry and spatial scale in the development discourses of post-colonial Tanzania: 1961–1971

At independence, Tanzanian foresters believed that state-led forestry could provide a lasting contribution to the development aspirations of the newly independent country. Yet they were gradually marginalized within Julius Nyerere's project of socio-economic transformation. By exploring the spatial dimensions of competing land use discourses of the time, I hope to offer an interpretation as to how and why forestry's marginalization happened. I argue that at least some of this marginalization was the result of differences inherent in the scale of focus between forestry and the larger, contemporaneous socio-economic and political discourses dominant in the period. At independence, Nyerere positioned development efforts more squarely within the national political institutions of the state and for the nation, writ whole. With its professional and discursive ties to an international forestry order and its spatial biases, Tanzanian foresters were poorly placed to respond or adapt to changes in the political discourse and in the economic conditions of resource extraction. In short, they were unable to adjust to changes in the scale of development praxis in Tanzania. I conclude by suggesting two points. First, that the history of land use and natural resource management choices in post-colonial Tanzania can be better understood through a historical-geographical, or spatialized, theoretical framework. Second, that current historical-geographical theory could be fine tuned through reflection on its utility in describing and explaining land use politics in post-colonial developing contexts.     

Digital effects in the spatial economy of film: towards a research agenda

A new assemblage of digital technologies, organized around compressed software formats and broadband Internet infrastructures, is reconfiguring the motion picture industry. In this paper, I review the impacts of digitization upon the spatial economy of film in the United States via a commodity chain framework. The discussion raises some important themes for conceptual debate in economic geography.     

System identification of the Vincent Thomas suspension bridge using earthquake records

The Vincent Thomas Bridge in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, is a critical artery for commercial traffic flow in and out of the Los Angeles Harbor, and is at risk in the seismically active Southern California region, particularly because it straddles the Palos Verdes fault zone. A combination of linear and non‐linear system identification techniques is employed to obtain a complete reduced‐order, multi‐input–multi‐output (MIMO) dynamic model of the Vincent Thomas Bridge based on the dynamic response of the structure to the 1987 Whittier and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Starting with the available acceleration measurements (which consists of 15 accelerometers on the bridge structure and 10 accelerometers at various locations on its base), an efficient least‐squares‐based time‐domain identification procedure is applied to the data set to develop a reduced‐order, equivalent linear, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom model. Although not the main focus of this study, the linear system identification method is also combined with a non‐parametric identification technique, to generate a reduced‐order non‐linear mathematical model suitable for use in subsequent studies to predict, with good fidelity, the total response of the bridge under arbitrary dynamic environments. Results of this study yield measurements of the equivalent linear modal properties (frequencies, mode shapes and non‐proportional damping) as well as quantitative measures of the extent and nature of non‐linear interaction forces arising from strong ground shaking. It is shown that, for the particular subset of observations used in the identification procedure, the apparent non‐linearities in the system restoring forces are quite significant, and they contribute substantially to the improved fidelity of the model. Also shown is the potential of the identification technique under discussion to detect slight changes in the structure's influence coefficients, which may be indicators of damage and degradation in the structure being monitored. Difficulties associated with accurately estimating damping for lightly damped long‐span structures from their earthquake response are discussed. The technical issues raised in this paper indicate the need for added spatial resolution in sensor instrumentation to obtain identified mathematical models of structural systems with the broadest range of validity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formation of metal in Grosvenor Mountains 95551 and comparison to ordinary chondrites

Siderophile element abundances in individual metal grains in the ungrouped chondrite Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95551 and in the ordinary chondrites Tieschitz H3.6, Soko-Banja LL4, and Allegan H5 were measured with laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Matrix metal in GRO 95551 falls into two distinct compositional groups, a high-Ni group with 7.2 ± 0.4 wt% Ni and a low-Ni group with 3.7 ± 0.1 wt% Ni, indicating that kamacite/taenite equilibration at ∼1020 K was followed by rapid cooling. The nonrefractory siderophile elements P, Co, Cu, Ga, Ge, As, Pd, and Au also partition between the high-Ni and low-Ni metal in a manner consistent with kamacite/taenite fractionation, but the refractory siderophiles Ru, Re, Os, Ir, and Pt show correlated variations that are unrelated to kamacite/taenite partitioning and indicate that variations in refractory components of the metal were not completely erased during equilibration at ∼1020 K. The Ni-normalized bulk metal composition of GRO 95551 is refractory depleted and volatile rich relative to Bencubbin and related metal-rich chondrites but bears strong similarities to equilibrated ordinary chondrite metal. GRO 95551 represents a new chondrite type with chemical affinity to the ordinary chondrites. Individual metal grains in unequlibrated ordinary chondrites also have correlated variations in refractory siderophile contents that cannot be produced by redox processes alone; these variations span three orders of magnitude and diminish with increasing metamorphic grade of the ordinary chondrites.     

Invariants in toroidal and tangentially geostrophic frozen-flux velocity fields

We derive two new types of invariant that must be obeyed by the radial magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary if the hypothesis of frozen flux is valid and the fluid motion is either toroidal or tangentially geostrophic there. These general invariants incorporate specific invariants that are already known and can, in principle, be tested using magnetic data that cover an interval of time.     

A new form of the cokriging equations

Myers developed a matrix form of the cokriging equations, but one that entails the solution of a large system of linear equations. Large systems are troublesome because of memory requirements and a general increase in the matrix condition number. We transform Myers’s system into a set of smaller systems, whose solution gives the classical kriging results, and provides simultaneously a nested set of lower dimensional cokriging results. In the course of developing the new formulation we make an interesting link to the Cauchy-Schwarz condition for the invertibility of a system, and another to a simple situation of coregionalization. In addition, we proceed from these new equations to a linear approximation to the cokriging results in the event that the crossvariograms are small, allowing one to take advantage of a recent results of Xie and others which proceeds by diagonalizing the variogram matrix function over the lag classes.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.