Evapotranspiration and canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands following mountain pine beetle attack

Over the past decade, British Columbia (BC), has experienced the largest mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak on record. This study used the eddy‐covariance (EC) technique to examine the impact of the MPB attack on evapotranspiration (E) and associated canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands with secondary structure (trees, saplings and seedlings surviving the attack) located in central BC. MPB‐06, an 85‐year‐old almost pure stand of pine trees, was first attacked in 2006, and by 2010, ~80% of the trees had been killed. MPB‐03, a 110‐year‐old stand with an overstory consisting of over 90% pine and a developed sub‐canopy, was first attacked in 2003 and by 2007 had > 95% pine canopy mortality. EC measurements began in August 2006 at MPB‐06 and in March 2007 at MPB‐03, and continued for four years. Annual total E ranged from 226 mm to 237 mm at MPB‐06, and from 280 to 297 mm at MPB‐03, showing relatively little year‐to‐year change at both sites over the four years. Increased E from the accelerated growth of the surviving vegetation (secondary structure, shrubs and herbs) compensated for reduction in E due to the death of the overstory. Monthly average daytime canopy conductance, the Priestley–Taylor (α), and the canopy–atmosphere decoupling coefficient (Ω) steadily increased during the growing season reaching approximate maximum values of 5 mm s^?1, 0.75 and 0.12, respectively. Potential evapotranspiration was approximated using a vapour pressure deficit‐dependent α obtained at high soil water content. Calculated water deficits indicated some water‐supply limitation to the surviving trees and understory at both sites. Rates of root zone drainage during the growing season were low relative to precipitation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glyphosate persistence in seawater

Glyphosate is one of the most widely applied herbicides globally but its persistence in seawater has not been reported. Here we quantify the biodegradation of glyphosate using standard “simulation” flask tests with native bacterial populations and coastal seawater from the Great Barrier Reef. The half-life for glyphosate at 25 °C in low-light was 47 days, extending to 267 days in the dark at 25 °C and 315 days in the dark at 31 °C, which is the longest persistence reported for this herbicide. AMPA, the microbial transformation product of glyphosate, was detected under all conditions, confirming that degradation was mediated by the native microbial community. This study demonstrates glyphosate is moderately persistent in the marine water under low light conditions and is highly persistent in the dark. Little degradation would be expected during flood plumes in the tropics, which could potentially deliver dissolved and sediment-bound glyphosate far from shore.     

Projected changes in reported campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis rates as a function of climate change: a New Zealand study

Two pathogens whose reported incidence rates may alter under climate change and variability were selected for study: the bacterium Campylobacter and the protozoan oocyst Cryptosporidium. Both are of particular importance in New Zealand, given its extensive and intensive agricultural farming systems, and therefore to other agriculturally-based economies. Local and international studies have indicated that rates of illnesses associated with these pathogens (campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis) may increase as temperature rises and as rainfall becomes more intense. An existing calibrated linear SIR (Susceptible-Ill-Recovered) model was used to make predictions of the proportional change in the reported rates of these two zoonoses. This method uses analytical solutions of the SIR model and a simple exponential approach to describe the temporal changes in pathogen contact rates—and hence of reported disease rates. These changes reflect climate change impacts only and do not consider adaptation or mitigation measures. Projections cannot be made of the actual-but-unknown-illness rates because of under-reporting throughout the country. The SIR model outputs provide projected changes in reported disease incidence as a function of temperature and rainfall for the years 2015, 2040 and 2090. These are calculated for three climate change scenarios: low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A2) emissions of greenhouse gases and for four seasons. Projections show the potential for substantial changes in reported rates by the year 2090 across New Zealand, with children most at-risk. Maximum increases in reported illness rates tend to occur in summer when pathogen contact rates are greatest. Average annual rates of increase of reported campylobacteriosis are predicted to rise by as much as 20 % and by 36 % for cryptosporidiosis (children, A2 scenario, 2090). To our knowledge, this is the first time that SIR modelling has been coupled with climate change projections.     

Unified global and regional wave model on a multi-resolution grid

Models for ocean surface wave forecasting in weather centres comprise global and regional systems in order to efficiently meet service demands. Regional models cannot run alone and have to use large area or global models to provide boundary wave spectra. The modern two-way nesting technique is to run the two models together with the regional model domain covered by both resolutions. An alternative method is to use a single multi-resolution grid that fits irregular coastlines and provides refined resolutions in selected regions. This paper presents a multi-resolution model based on a spherical multiple-cell (SMC) grid, which is designed to relax the CFL restriction of Eulerian advection time step at high latitudes by merging the conventional latitude-longitude grid cells. The implementation of the SMC grid in WAVEWATCH III is described, and a multi-resolution (6, 12 and 25 km) global SMC configuration is compared with a suite of nested grid ocean surface wave models, including 35-km global, 8-km European and 4-km UK regional models. Verification against buoy and platform wave observations indicates that the unified model is better than the 35-km global and very close in performance to the two regional models.     

A typology of dairy farmer perceptions towards climate change

Dairy farming is an industry which could potentially mitigate a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. However, perception and acceptance towards climate change is a significant barrier to voluntary adoption of best practice techniques. A number of countries have set targets for reducing emissions, of which Scotland has one of the most ambitious agendas. This paper presents results from an extensive survey of 540 dairy farmers, conducted in 2009, with the aim of understanding attitudes, values and intentions towards climate change. Only half of these farmers agreed that temperatures would rise in the future and this could significantly hinder adoption of voluntary measures to meet emissions targets. To explore this further a typology was developed on the responses to attitude and value statements, using principal components and cluster analysis methods. Six distinct types were found to exist which had a range of outlooks towards the impact of climate change in the future. However, five of the six types stated no intention to adopt practices which would reduce emissions. The typology approach supports diversified engagement strategies and a more innovation-led or resource maximisation view towards farming was expressed by several of these types. This may indicate that policy makers should focus on ‘win-win’ technologies as a means to effectively engage with these. However, a number of types were disengaged from the process which was driven by uncertainties towards projections for global warming and this needs to be addressed by both scientists and policy makers to ensure greater participation within the farming community.     

The Australia clause and REDD: a cautionary tale

If a binding agreement can be reached on a post-2012 international climate regime, it is likely to include the phased introduction of a market-linked mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD). Under such a scheme, countries that reduce net REDD emissions below a pre-set baseline would receive credits that could be sold in carbon markets and used by purchasing nations to meet their international mitigation obligations. This paper draws on the Australian experience with deforestation to identify some of the issues that might obstruct progress on REDD. For the past 20 years, Australia has had the highest rate of deforestation in the developed world; ~416,000 ha of forests were cleared annually between 1990 and 2009, resulting in the emission of almost 80 MtCO₂-e/yr. It is also the only developed country that will rely on reduced deforestation emissions as the primary way of meeting its quantified emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol. Australia’s approach to deforestation issues provides valuable insights into the difficulties an international REDD scheme might encounter.     

Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30–60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over the Indian region, from 1975 to 2008. The MAC is essentially given by the year-to-year changes in the annual and semi-annual components; it displays a slow northward migration of OLR anomalies coupled with an alternation between the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. The impact of these oscillatory modes on rainfall is then analyzed using a 1-degree gridded daily data set, focusing on Monsoonal India (north of 17°N and west of 90°E) during the months of June to September. Daily rainfall variability is partitioned into three states using a Hidden Markov Model. Two of these states are shown to agree well with previous classifications of “active” and “break” phases of the monsoon, while the third state exhibits a dipolar east–west pattern with abundant rainfall east of about 77°E and low rainfall to the west. Occurrence of the three rainfall states is found to be an asymmetric function of both the MAC and ISO components. On average, monsoon active phases are favored by large positive anomalies of MAC, and breaks by negative ones. ISO impact is decisive when the MAC is near neutral values during the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Active monsoon spells are found to require a synergy between the MAC and ISO, while the east–west rainfall dipole is less sensitive to interactions between the two. The driest years, defined from spatially averaged June–September rainfall anomalies, are found to be mostly a result of breaks occurring during the onset and withdrawal stages of the monsoon, e.g., mid-June to mid-July, and during September. These breaks are in turn associated with anomalously late MAC onset or early MAC withdrawal, often together with a large-amplitude, negative ISO event. The occurrence of breaks during the core of the monsoon—from late July to late August—is restricted to a few years when MAC was exceptionally weak, such as 1987 or 2002. Wet years are shown to be mostly associated with more frequent active spells and a stronger MAC than usual, especially at the end of the monsoon season. Taken together, our results suggest that monthly and seasonal precipitation?predictability is higher in the early and late stages of the summer monsoon season.     

Campaign-style U-Pb titanite petrochronology:Along-strike variations in timing of metamorphism in the Himalayan metamorphic core

Present-day along-strike heterogeneities within the Himalayan orogen are seen at many scales, from variations within the deep architecture of the lithospheric mantle, to differences in geomorphologic surface processes. Here, we present an internally consistent petrochronologic dataset from the Himalayan metamorphic core(HMC), in order to document and investigate the causes of along-strike variations in its Oligocene-Miocene tectonic history. Laser ablation split-stream analysis was used to date and characterise the geochemistry of titanite from 47 calc-silicate rocks across >2000 km along the Himalaya.This combined U-Pb-REE-Zr single mineral dataset circumvents uncertainties associated with interpretations based on data compilations from different studies, mineral systems and laboratories, and allows for direct along-strike comparisons in the timing of metamorphic processes. Titanite dates range from ～30 Ma to 12 Ma, recording(re-)crystallization between 625 ℃ and 815 ℃. Titanite T-t data overlap with previously published P-T-t paths from interleaved peltic rocks, demonstrating the usefulness of titanite petrochronology for recording the metamorphic history in lithologies not traditionally used for thermobarometry. Overall, the data indicate a broad eastward-younging trend along the orogen.Disparities in the duration and timing of metamorphism within the HMC are best explained by alongstrike variations in the position of ramps on the basal detachment controlling a two-stage process of preferential ductile accretion at depth followed by the formation of later upper-crust brittle duplexes.These processes, coupled with variable erosion, resulted in the asymmetric exhumation of a younger,thicker crystalline core in the eastern Himalaya.     

在EBEX-2000实验资料中湍流耗散率、长度尺度和结构参数特征

采用2000年8月在美国加州棉花地两个高度上应用超声三分量仪、快速响应温度和湿度仪进行的EBEX-2000 (International Energy Balance Experiment, 2000, 简称EBEX-2000) 风速三分量、温度和湿度湍流实验观测数据, 计算分析了在不同稳定度下的湍流能量和热量耗散率和湍流结构参数特征.并与Kansas和长白山原始森林湍流实验得到的结果进行了比较, 得到了一些湍流特征量在不同下垫面情况下的一些有意义的特征.     

Diffuse gas emissions at the Ukinrek Maars,Alaska: Implications for magmatic degassing and volcanic monitoring

Diffuse CO₂ efflux near the Ukinrek Maars, two small volcanic craters that formed in 1977 in a remote part of the Alaska Peninsula, was investigated using accumulation chamber measurements. High CO₂ efflux, in many places exceeding 1000 g m⁻² d⁻¹, was found in conspicuous zones of plant damage or kill that cover 30,000–50,000 m² in area. Total diffuse CO₂ emission was estimated at 21–44 t d⁻¹. Gas vents 3-km away at The Gas Rocks produce 0.5 t d⁻¹ of CO₂ that probably derives from the Ukinrek Maars basalt based on similar δ¹³C values (∼−6‰), ³He/⁴He ratios (5.9–7.2 R_A), and CO₂/³He ratios (1–2 × 10⁹) in the two areas. A lower ³He/⁴He ratio (2.7 R_A) and much higher CO₂/³He ratio (9 × 10¹⁰) in gas from the nearest arc-front volcanic center (Mount Peulik/Ugashik) provide a useful comparison. The large diffuse CO₂ emission at Ukinrek has important implications for magmatic degassing, subsurface gas transport, and local toxicity hazards. Gas–water–rock interactions play a major role in the location, magnitude and chemistry of the emissions.