Analysis of landslide causes and associated damages in the Kashmir Himalayas of Pakistan

This article deals with the analysis of landslide causes and associated damages in the Kashmir Himalayas of Pakistan. The present study is based on Muzaffarabad, which lies in the lesser Himalayas. Geologically, the Kashmir Himalaya is the young and most dynamic system in the world. In Muzaffarabad, mostly, people live on the fragile mountain slopes, and therefore, they are highly vulnerable to the risk of landslides. To achieve the objectives of the study, data were collected both from primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained through intensive field work and human perception survey, while secondary data were obtained from the related line agencies. The analysis reveals that in the study area, immature geology, active seismic zone, wide range of temperature and seasonal rain are the major physical factors, whereas human interventions on the fragile slopes are intensifying factors which in effect contribute to the landslide incidence. As a result, the adverse impacts on housing, sources of livelihood earnings and human casualties are escalating day-by-day. There are several implementing agencies which are responsible for reducing the risk of landsliding. So far, these agencies have not reduced the landslide damages rather their intensity and frequency have been increased especially after 2005 Kashmir earthquake.     

Evidence for temporally coherent increases in the abundance of small Discostella (Bacillariophyceae) species over the past 200 years among boreal lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (Canada)

Journal of Paleolimnology - Increased relative abundances and accumulation rates of the small, centric diatom Discostella have been recorded in numerous paleolimnological investigations of north...     

Sequestration rental policies and price path of carbon

Abstract

Carbon rental has been suggested as a way of providing incentives to sequester carbon in biomass in the context of emissions trading systems for GHG emissions. A rental system works by issuing a credit for sequestered carbon that must be repaid after some fixed term. Rental systems avoid many of the difficulties of ensuring the permanence of sequestered carbon that exist in other institutional arrangements. This article adapts the results of Herzog et al. (2003) to argue that a rental system requires that carbon prices rise more slowly than the value of alternative investments in order to provide adequate incentives, and that there are good reasons to believe that this may not happen. Proponents need to directly address this potential difficulty in advancing arguments that carbon rental should be adopted as policy.     

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

     

Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends

Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, and associated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate-change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve as an early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer-term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.     

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.     

Nutrient Loading and Transformations in the Columbia River Estuary Determined by High-Resolution In Situ Sensors

The Columbia River estuary is characterized by relatively large tidal currents and water residence times of a few days or less. These and other environmental conditions tend to suppress water column productivity and favor the export of riverborne nutrients to the coastal ocean. However, hotspots of biological activity may allow for significant nutrient transformation and removal within the estuary, but these processes have previously been difficult to quantify due to the challenges of obtaining measurements at appropriate frequency and duration. In this study, nutrient biogeochemical dynamics within the salt-influenced region of the estuary were quantified using high-resolution in situ observations of nutrients and physical water properties. During 2010, three autonomous nutrient sensors (Satlantic SUNA, SubChem Systems Inc. APNA, WET Labs Cycle-PO4) that together measured nitrate?+?nitrite, orthophosphate, ammonium, silicic acid, and nitrite were deployed on fixed observatory platforms. Hourly measurements captured tidal fluctuations and permitted an analysis of river and ocean end-member mixing. The results suggested that during summer, the lower estuary released high concentrations of ammonium and phosphate despite low concentrations in the river and coastal ocean. This was likely a result of organic matter accumulation and remineralization in the estuarine turbidity maximum and the lateral bays adjacent to the main channel.     

Chemical dispersant effectiveness testing: influence of droplet coalescence

Thermodynamic and kinetic investigations were performed to determine the influence of coalescence of chemically dispersed crude oil droplets in saline waters. For the range of pH (4-10) and salinity (10 per thousand, 30 per thousand, 50 per thousand ) values studied, zeta-potential values ranged from -3 to -10 mV. As the interaction potential values calculated using Derjaguin-Landau-Verway-Overbeek (DLVO) theory were negative, the electrostatic barrier did not produce significant resistance to droplet coalescence. Coalescence kinetics of premixed crude oil and chemical dispersant were determined within a range of mean shear rates (Gm = 5, 10, 15, 20 s(-1)) and salinity (10 per thousand, 30 per thousand ) values. Coalescence reaction rates were modeled using Smoluchowski reaction kinetics. Measured collision efficiency values (alpha = 0.25) suggest insignificant resistance to coalescence in shear systems. Experimentally determined dispersant efficiencies (alpha = 0.35) were 10-50% lower than that predicted using a non-interacting droplet model (alpha = 0.0). Unlike other protocols in which the crude oil and dispersant are not premixed, salinity effects were not significant in this protocol. This approach allowed the effects of dispersant-oil contact efficiency eta(contact) to be separated from those of water column transport efficiency (eta(transport)) and coalescence efficiency (eta(coalescence)).     

Measurements of Faraday Rotation Through the Solar Corona During the 2009 Solar Minimum with the MESSENGER Spacecraft

Measurements of Faraday rotation through the solar corona were collected using the radio beacon aboard the MESSENGER spacecraft during the longest solar minimum in a century. As MESSENGER entered superior conjunction, the plane of polarization of its radio signal was observed to rotate as it traversed the circularly birefringent plasma of the Sun’s atmosphere. On time scales of less than three hours, these uncalibrated plane of polarization observations of Faraday rotation can be used to investigate the dynamic processes in the solar plasma, such as magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here we describe the MESSENGER Faraday rotation experiment, the data processing conducted to obtain the plane of polarization, and the estimation of error.     

Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.