Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.     

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

Meteoric fluid‐rock interaction in Variscan shear zones

Variscan shear zones in the Armorican Massif represent sites of strong fluid‐rock interaction. The hydrogen isotope composition of muscovite (δD_Ms) from syntectonic leucogranite allows to determine the source of fluids that infiltrated the footwall of three detachment zones and the South Armorican Shear Zone. Using temperatures of hydrogen isotope exchange estimated from microstructural data, we calculate the hydrogen isotope ratios of water (δD_water) present within the shear zones during high‐temperature deformation. A ~40‰ difference in δD_water values from deep to shallow crustal level reveals a mixing relationship between deep crustal fluids with higher δD values that range from ?34 to ?33‰, and meteoric fluids with δD values as low as ?74‰ in the upper part of detachment footwalls.     

An iterative version of the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter

The adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM) was introduced as a robust filter technique for large-scale applications and an alternative to the well-known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). It consists of two analysis steps, one linear update and one weighting/resampling step. The bias of AGM is determined by two parameters, one adaptive weight parameter (forcing the weights to be more uniform to avoid filter collapse) and one predetermined bandwidth parameter which decides the size of the linear update. It has been shown that if the adaptive parameter approaches one and the bandwidth parameter decreases, as an increasing function of the sample size, the filter can achieve asymptotic optimality. For large-scale applications with a limited sample size, the filter solution may be far from optimal as the adaptive parameter gets close to zero depending on how well the samples from the prior distribution match the data. The bandwidth parameter must often be selected significantly different from zero in order to make large enough linear updates to match the data, at the expense of bias in the estimates. In the iterative AGM we introduce here, we take advantage of the fact that the history matching problem is usually estimation of parameters and initial conditions. If the prior distribution of initial conditions and parameters is close to the posterior distribution, it is possible to match the historical data with a small bandwidth parameter and an adaptive weight parameter that gets close to one. Hence, the bias of the filter solution is small. In order to obtain this scenario, we iteratively run the AGM throughout the data history with a very small bandwidth to create a new prior distribution from the updated samples after each iteration. After a few iterations, nearly all samples from the previous iteration match the data, and the above scenario is achieved. A simple toy problem shows that it is possible to reconstruct the true posterior distribution using the iterative version of the AGM. Then a 2D synthetic reservoir is revisited to demonstrate the potential of the new method on large-scale problems.     

Large-scale atmospheric circulation forms and their impact on air temperature in Europe and northern Asia

Air temperature variations in Europe and northern Asia are strongly affected by atmospheric circulation. A large-scale study of temperature signals is presented, using a newly available global gridded daily temperature dataset. Major types of European Grosswetterlagen (large-scale weather patterns) and the Russian Vangengeim–Girs classification are compared in their spatial applicability to air temperatures within the past 110 years (1901–2010). The consistency of spatial patterns in the three most recent decades (1981–2010) is investigated, and temperature changes are interpreted against the backdrop of changes in character and frequency of circulation patterns. Both classifications largely explain the observed temperature variability. Spatial patterns are large-scale and strong in both regions, especially in winter. Both spatial extent and signal magnitude show a distinct seasonality with maximum values in winter and minimum ones in summer. Spatial patterns show little changes in Europe; yet the ability to explain temperature variability in northern Asia decreased within 1981–2010. European winter warming corresponds to increased maritime and to decreased continental air mass inflow, superimposed on the general warming trend. Northern Asian winter warming is partly explainable by circulation changes in January and February, but to a lesser extend in December. These results may be used to advance input variables of global climate models and to improve their performance in the European–Northern Asian area.     

Nonlinear dynamic tests of a reinforced concrete frame building at different damage levels

This paper discusses the dynamic tests of a two-story infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame building using an eccentric-mass shaker. The building, located in El Centro, CA, was substantially damaged prior to the tests due to the seismic activity in the area. During the testing sequence, five infill walls were removed to introduce additional damage states and to investigate the changes in the dynamic properties and the nonlinear response of the building to the induced excitations. The accelerations and displacements of the structure under the forced and ambient vibrations were recorded through an array of sensors, while lidar scans were obtained to document the damage. The test data provide insight into the nonlinear response of an actual building and the change of its resonant frequencies and operational shapes due to varying damage levels and changes of the excitation amplitude, frequency, and orientation.     

Long-term soil moisture dynamics derived from GNSS interferometric reflectometry: a case study for Sutherland,South Africa

Soil moisture is a geophysical key observable for predicting floods and droughts, modeling weather and climate and optimizing agricultural management. Currently available in situ observations are limited to small sampling volumes and restricted number of sites, whereas measurements from satellites lack spatial resolution. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers can be used to estimate soil moisture time series at an intermediate scale of about 1000 m². In this study, GNSS signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data at the station Sutherland, South Africa, are used to estimate soil moisture variations during 2008–2014. The results capture the wetting and drying cycles in response to rainfall. The GNSS Volumetric Water Content (VWC) is highly correlated (r ² = 0.8) with in situ observations by time-domain reflectometry sensors and is accurate to 0.05 m³/m³. The soil moisture estimates derived from the SNR of the L1 and L2P signals compared to the L2C show small differences with a RMSE of 0.03 m³/m³. A reduction in the SNR sampling rate from 1 to 30 s has very little impact on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimates (RMSE of the VWC difference 1–30 s is 0.01 m³/m³). The results show that the existing data of the global tracking network with continuous observations of the L1 and L2P signals with a 30-s sampling rate over the last two decades can provide valuable complementary soil moisture observations worldwide.     

Fluoride Biomonitoring around a Large Aluminium Smelter Using Foliage from Different Tree Species

In order to study the pollution gradient in the vicinity of a large aluminium production facility in Patagonia (Argentina), a passive biomonitoring was performed employing foliage from three tree species. Primary scope was to identify pollution gradients and to select suitable tree species which can be used as biomonitor plants in the study area. Therefore, leaves of Eucalyptus rostrata, Populus hybridus and different needle ages of Pinus radiata were collected at different distances from the industry and the fluoride concentration was analysed in washed and unwashed samples in order to determine the amount of external fluoride. Washing reduced the F‐concentrations by 24, 39 and 51% on average in E. rostrata, P. hybridus and P. radiata, respectively, indicating that species‐specific characteristics determine the accumulation and wash‐off of dust‐associated fluorine. F‐concentrations varied from 6 to 3652 ppm F in unwashed samples indicating a steep pollution gradient in the study area. The influence of F‐emissions was discernible in all samples up to a distance of 3500 m from the smelter. E. rostrata accumulated more fluorine than the other species at equal distance from the emission source. The present study confirms that aluminium smelting results in high F deposition in the study area. Establishing a biomonitor network around large emitters is suitable and feasible to evaluate the efficiency of air control measures.     

A deformation-based seismic design method for 3D R/C irregular buildings using inelastic dynamic analysis

A new deformation-based design method concerning 3D reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings is presented, which involves the use of advanced analysis tools, i.e. response-history analysis for appropriately scaled input motions, for multiple levels of earthquake action. The critical issues concerning the inelastic response-history analysis used for the design, namely the definition of the appropriate input, the set up of the analytical model that should account for post-yield behaviour of plastic hinge zones, and the direction of loading, are discussed. The proposed method is based on a partially inelastic model, while the design of structural members is carried out for different performance levels related to their inelastic behaviour. The aforementioned method builds on previous proposals by the first author and his co-workers, nevertheless a new procedure for the design of members that are expected to develop inelastic behaviour for the serviceability earthquake is proposed; its aim is the reduction of member design forces and the a-priori definition of their inelastic performance, by exploiting the deformation limits for the specific performance level, which are related to the damage level of the structural members. The proposed method was applied to irregular multistorey R/C 3D frame buildings with setbacks, and their performance for several levels of earthquake action was assessed using a fully inelastic model and additional ground motions not used at the design phase. The same buildings were designed according to the provisions of Eurocode 8. Comparison of the two methods of seismic design, revealed the advantages of the proposed design method, in particular the more economic detailing of transverse reinforcement in the members that develop very little inelastic behaviour even for very strong earthquakes.