Analytical prediction of the collapse earthquake for R/C buildings: Case studies

An analytical methodology for estimating the values of behaviour factors (q-factors), suggested in a companion paper, is applied to two typical reinforced concrete structures, a frame and a dual system, designed according to current European trends in seismic design. The two case studies clearly indicated the need to consider both local and overall collapse criteria, since either one can be critical for the determination of the behaviour factor, depending on the type of the structure. The calculated values of q-factors were close to, but higher than those specified by modern seismic codes, the larger discrepancy occurring in the case of the dual system.     

A contribution to seismic shear design of R/C walls in dual structures

The paper focuses on the seismic response of walls in dual (frame + wall) structures, with particular emphasis on shear behaviour. Although dual structures are widely used in earthquake-resistant medium-rise and high-rise buildings, the provisions of modern seismic codes regarding design of walls for shear are not fully satisfactory, particularly in the (common) case that walls of substantially different length form part of the same structure. Relevant provisions of the leading seismic codes are first summarised and their limitations discussed. Then an extensive parametric study is presented, involving two multistorey dual systems, one with identical walls, and one with walls with unequal length, designed to the provisions of Eurocode 8 for two different ductility classes (H and M). The walls of the same structures are also designed to other methods such as those used in New Zealand and Greece. The resulting different designs are then assessed by subjecting the structures to a suite of strong ground motions, carrying out inelastic time history analysis, and comparing the results against design action effects. It is found that although modern code procedures generally lead to satisfactory performance (differences among them do exist), the design of walls seems to be less appropriate in the case of unequal length walls. For this case a modified procedure is proposed, consisting of an additional factor to account for the relative contribution of walls of the same length to the total base and an improved envelope of wall shears along the height; this improved method seems to work better than the other procedures evaluated herein, but further calibration is clearly required.     

Wet Fault or Dry Fault? A Laboratory Approach to Remotely Monitor the Hydro-Mechanical State of a Discontinuity Using Controlled-Source Seismics

Stress variation and fluid migration occur in deformation zones, which are expected to affect seismic waves reflected off or propagating across such structures. We developed a basic experimental approach to monitor the mechanical coupling with respect to seismic coupling across a single discontinuity between a granite sample in contact with a steel platen. Piezoceramics located on the platen were used to both generate and record the P and S wave fields reflected off the discontinuity at normal incidence. This way, normal (B _n ) and tangential (B _t ) compliances were calculated using Schoenberg’s linear slip theory (Schoenberg, J Acoust Soc Am 68:1516–1521, 1980) when the roughness, the effective pressure (P _eff, up to 200 MPa), and the nature of the filling (gas or water) vary. We observe that increasing the effective pressure decreases B _n and B _t , which is interpreted as the effect of the closure of the voids at the interface, permitting more seismic energy to be transmitted across the interface. Values of B _n are significantly higher than those of B _t at low P _eff (<60–80 MPa) in dry conditions, and significantly drop under water-saturated conditions. The water filling the voids therefore helps to transmit the seismic energy of compressional waves across the interface. These results show that the assumption B _n  ≈ B _t commonly found in some theoretical approaches does not always stand. The ratio B _n /B _t actually reflects the type of saturating fluids and the effective pressure, in agreement with other experimental studies. However, we illustrate that only the relative variations of this ratio seem to be relevant, not its absolute value as suggested in previous studies. Consequently, the use of B _n against B _t plots may allow effective pressure variation and the nature of the pore fluid to be inferred. In this respect, this experimental approach at sample scale helps to pave the way for remotely monitoring in the field the hydro-mechanical state of deformation zones, such as seismogenic faults, fractured reservoirs, or lava conduits.     

Seismic damage analysis including inelastic shear–flexure interaction

The paper focusses on seismic damage analysis of reinforced concrete (R/C) members, accounting for shear–flexure interaction in the inelastic range. A finite element of the beam-column type recently proposed by the writers for the seismic analysis of R/C structures is first briefly described. The analytical model consists of two distributed flexibility sub-elements which interact throughout the analysis to simulate inelastic flexural and shear response. The finite element accounts for shear strength degradation with inelastic curvature demand, as well as coupling between inelastic flexural and shear deformations after flexural yielding. Based on this model, a seismic damage index is proposed taking into account both inelastic flexural and shear deformations, as well as their interaction. The finite element and the seismic damage index are used to analyse the response of R/C columns tested under cyclic loading and failing either in shear or in flexure. It is shown that the analytical model and damage index can predict and describe well the hysteretic response of R/C columns with different types of failure.     

Catchments of German surface water bodies

The European Water Framework Directive demands to assess and report the chemical and ecological status of water bodies (WB). Linking their status to drivers and pressures and deriving suitable mitigation measures require knowledge of the shape and area of WB catchments. We derived a network of 26 570 WB catchments in Germany using the hydrologically-defined drainage basins of the German federal states. We established a network of 338 149 drainage basins. This network underwent plausibility checks and a validation with the catchment areas of 348 monitoring stations across Germany. To this network, we assigned the longest intersecting or the next downstream WB code. To account for geometric inaccuracies we revised spurious intersections resulting in splittings and cycles in the WB network. As WB may be ecologically but not hydrologically well defined, we split them at confluences and intersections. The network of drainage basins matched the monitoring stations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 1.00. The final WB network contained 11 005 out of the 11 586 original WBs longer than 1 m. The corresponding local catchment areas range from <<0.0001 to 446 km², with a median of 10 km². The dataset combines the requirements of hydrological and ecological modelling applications at basin or national scales with the needs of the EU reporting which can foster their acceptance by state authorities and river-basin management.     

A consistent derivation of the wave-energy equation from basic hydrodynamic principles

Based on a decomposition of the velocity into mean flow, turbulent and wave components, momentum and hereafter a wave-energy equation is derived. It contains a turbulent energy dissipation term which is closed by applying a wave-related mixing length model and linear wave theory solutions. This closure produces a non-linear turbulent wave-energy dissipation including the wave energy in a 5/2 power law. The theory is able to predict correctly the shape of deep-water wave spectra according to Phillips' similarity law.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Diachronous isotopic and sedimentary responses to topographic change as indicators of mid‐Eocene hydrologic reorganization in the western United States

Early Cenozoic terrestrial deposits in the western United States represent well‐preserved archives of climatic and tectonic processes that together shaped the Earth's surface during the demise of a large continental plateau. This study examines a Cenozoic terrestrial sedimentary sequence in the central part of the Cordilleran orogen (Montana) using sedimentologic and geochemical techniques. At ～49 Ma, we observe rapid major shifts in oxygen, carbon and strontium isotope records that are too large to directly reflect changes in meteoric water composition due to simple orographic rainout. The transition to low‐δ¹⁸O values in pedogenic carbonate in concert with changes in the composition of clastic material at ～49 Ma points to the input of evolved meteoric water to the hydrological cycle due to a change in the source of waters reaching Cordilleran intermontane regions in southwestern Montana. This drainage reorganization coincides with the initiation of magmatism and extension to the west in what is now Montana and Idaho. The sedimentological record shows evidence that depositional gradients increased in the study area ～46 Ma, ～3 Myr after the drainage reorganization occurred. This interval is most likely the time it took for extensional deformation to propagate to the study area itself. Evidence of freshening events in Laramide Basins to the southeast suggests that this drainage reorganization diverted waters to progressively fill these basins and highlights the impact of post‐plateau extension‐related landscape reorganization on river networks and lake dynamics. This study also emphasizes the importance of using multiple tools in deciphering topographic history through the study of terrestrial basin deposits, in that interpretation based on any single method employed would have compromised our ability to successfully identify the regional evolution of topography and drainage networks.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.