Forecasting terrestrial water storage for drought management in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Reliable seasonal forecasting of water resources variability may be of great value for agriculture and energy management in Ethiopia. This work aims to develop statistical forecasting of seasonal total water storage (TWS) anomalies in Ethiopia using sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure indices. Because of the spatial and temporal variability of TWS over the country, Ethiopia is divided into four regions each having similar TWS dynamics. Periods of long-term water deficit observed in GRACE TWS products for the region are found to coincide with periods of meteorological drought. Multiple linear regression is employed to generate seasonal forecasting models for each region. We find that the skill of the resulting models varies from region to region, with R ² from 0.33 to 0.73 and correlation from 0.27 to 0.77 between predicted and observed values (using leave-one-out cross-validation). The skill of the models is better than the climatology in all regions.     

The use of maximum entropy to increase the informational content of hydrological networks by additional gauges

ABSTRACT

The optimization and extension of existing gauging networks are a challenging task, which can be done under consideration of many different aspects. One possibility is to maximize the obtained information on regional hydrological characteristics by new gauges compared to existing ones. For this, information theory approaches are most suitable. Here, the principle of maximum entropy is applied to calculate the probability of non-similarity of catchments to determine locations of new gauges according to the catchment characteristics that are most relevant for the hydrological conditions. The realization in an interactive application, provided online, makes use easy for practitioners and scientists. Goodness-of-fit measures are applied to investigate the explanatory power of the model and the contribution of each characteristic to the model, which gives information on the most influential properties of the catchment. The relevance of the proposed approach is proven by comparing hydrological signatures between similar and non-similar catchment.     

Das Nord-Süd-streichende Lineament von Elizondo in den westlichen Pyrenäen

Zusammenfassung In den spanischen Westpyrenäen läßt sich ein nord-süd-streichendes Lineament nachweisen, das sich vor allem im Aldudes-Quinto Real-Massiv zwischen Elizondo und Eugui bemerkbar macht. Die Magnesitlagerstätte von Eugui ist auf etwa 9 km nord-südlicher Erstreckung an das Lineament gebunden. Zahlreiche NW-SE streichende Diabasgänge zeigen in ihrer Gesamtheit in diesem Bereich eine lineare Anordnung von Nord nach Süd. Während des Devons und Unterkarbons bildete die Lineamentzone ein Becken mit größeren Sedimentmächtigkeiten und besonderer Fazies. Der Faltenspiegel der variszischen Strukturen fällt von Osten und Westen her in das Lineament ab. Die generell nordwestlich streichenden variszischen Faltenachsen schwenken innerhalb des Lineaments in eine nord-südliche bis rheinische Richtung ein. Bemerkenswert ist der Achsenfächer bei Berroeta.

---

Near by Elizondo in the Western Pyrenees (Spain) the massiv of Aldudes-Quinto Real is crossed by a lineament of NW direction. This lineament contains the magnisite deposit of Eugui. Diabas dykes show NW-SE direction, but the prevailing direction of the series is N-S. During devonian and lower carboniferous time the region of the lineament represented a sedimentary basin of great thickness and special facies. The axis of this large synclinorium shows the same direction as the lineament. The hercynian axes of folding are striking NW in general but NS in the region of the lineament. Remarkable is the fan of axes near Berroeta.

---

Compendio En los Pirineos occidentales españoles se encuentra un lineamiento con un rumbo de Norte a Sur, que se hace notable sobre todo en el macizo de Aldudes-Quinto Real entre Elizondo y Eugui. El yacimiento de magnesita de Eugui sigue este lineamiento en una extensión de 9 kms. Numerosas diques de diabasa muestran en su generalidad en esta región un orden en linea de Norte a Sur. Durante el devónico y el carbonífero inferior formaba esta zona de lineamiento una cuenca, en la que se depositaron sedimentos de gran espesor con una facies característica. Los niveles de eje de los anticlinales de las estmcturas varísticas buzan tanto del Este como del Oeste hacia el centro del lineamiento. Los ejes de los anticlinales que tienen en general un rumbo hacia el NO tuercen dentro del lineamiento en una dirección de N—S a NNE—SSO. Interesantes son los ejes en abanico cerca de Berroeta.

---

Résumé Dans l'ouest des Pyrénées espagnoles on a prouvé l'éxistance d'un linéament qui se montre particulièrement dans le massif des Aldudes-Quinto Real entre Elizondo et Eugui. Le gîte de magnésite d'Eugui est attaché à cette linéament du nord au sud sur une longueur de 9 km. Dans cette région de nombreux filons basaltiques montrent dans leur totalité un arrangement linéaire du nord au sud. Durant le dévonien et le carbonifère inférieur la zone de linéament a formé une cuvette de grandes epaisseurs sédimentaires et de faciès particulier. Dans cette linéament l'axe de plissement, en général de direction NW, se dirige du N—S jusqu'à une direction rhénale. L'axe en éventail près de Berroeta est remarquable.

---

: , . , NW NE. ( ) .

---

---

Anschrift der Verfasser: Dr. K.Mohr und Professor Dr. A.Pilger, Institut für Geologie und Paläontologie der Bergakademie Clausthal — Technische Hochschule 3392 Clausthal-Zellerf eld.     

Mechanism and kinetics of the reaction: 1 dolomite + 2 quartz = 1 diopside + 2 CO2: a comparison of rock-sample and of powder experiments

Two experiments using cylindrical samples of a dolomite-quartz rock were carried out in a conventional hydrothermal apparatus for the forward reaction: 1 dolomite + 2 quartz = 1 diopside + 2 CO₂, in order to compare the mechanism and the kinetics with results from experiments using mineral powders of dolomite and quartz at the same P-T-X conditions. Experimental conditions were as follows: total pressure 500 MPa; temperature 680° C (overstepping 65° C); CO₂ content of the fluid phase, consisting of carbon dioxide and water, was nearly 90 mol%; the fluid/rock ratio was 1:37, and the H₂O/rock ratio was about 1:740; run duration was 92 days. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) examination of a polished axial section of the rock cylinders after the run, using back-scattered electrons (BSE), shows that the reaction produced corona textures. The diopside crystals nucleate and grow exclusively on dolomite surfaces adjacent to quartz grains, i.e. in regions where there is intimate contact between the reactants. The dolomite matrix, in contrast, is diopside free. A concept of microsystems is used to compare directly the rock cylinder results with those from runs done with mineral powders. The microsystems, which consist of quartz, dolomite and diopside, are connected by the intergranular space which is filled by the fluid phase. The SEM analysis of the rock cylinders indicates a dissolution-crystallization mechanism operating in the microsystems; this is consistent with the results of experiments using dolomite quartz powders (Lüttge et al. 1989). It can be demonstrated that reaction kinetics in mineral powder runs are interface controlled as long as the newly formed diopside crystals do not cover the dolomite surfaces completely (Lüttge and Metz 1991 c). This result is applicable to each microsystem of the rock cylinder, since the reaction mechanism and the resulting textures are the same in both kinds of experiments. The reaction is much slower outside the microsystems, i.e. in the dolomite matrix but in the close vicinity of the quartz grains. At these places, the reaction is controlled by the transport of Si-species in the CO₂-rich fluid phase filling the intergranular space. The reaction is absent in quartz-free regions of the dolomite matrix. Calculations and measurements of the extent of reaction progress in both kinds of experiments give results of the same order of magnitude: the conversion, and therefore the reaction rate, differs by less than a factor of two. The conclusion is that there are no differences, in principle, concerning mechanisms, rate controls, rates, and resulting textures between rock cylinder experiments, and mineral powder experiments.     

Middle to Late Pleistocene environments based on stable organic carbon and nitrogen isotopes of loess-palaeosol sequences from the Carpathian Basin

Stable organic carbon and nitrogen isotopes can be used to interpret past vegetation patterns and ecosystem qualities. Here we present these proxies for two loess-palaeosol sequences from the southern Carpathian Basin to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment during the past 350 ka and establish regional commonalities and differences. Before now, isotopic studies on loess sequences from this region were only conducted on deposits from the last glacial cycle. We conducted methodological tests involving the complete decalcification of the samples prior to stable isotope analyses. Two decalcification methods (fumigation method and wet chemical acidification), different treatment times, and the reproducibility of carbon isotope analyses were tested. Obtained results indicate that the choice of the decalcification method is important for organic carbon stable isotope analyses of loess-palaeosol sequences because ratios vary by more than 10‰ between the wet chemical and fumigation methods, due to incomplete carbonate removal by the latter. Therefore, we suggest avoiding the fumigation method for studies on loess-palaeosol sequences. In addition, our data show that samples with TOC content <0.2% bear increased potential for misinterpretation of their carbon isotope ratios. For our sites, C₃-vegetation is predominant and no palaeoenvironmental shifts leading to a change of the dominant photosynthesis pathway can be detected during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. Furthermore, the importance of further stable nitrogen isotope studies is highlighted, since this proxy seems to reflect past precipitation patterns and reveals favourable conditions in the southern Carpathian Basin, especially during interstadials.     

Leveraging HPC accelerator architectures with modern techniques — hydrologic modeling on GPUs with ParFlow

Computational Geosciences - Rapidly changing heterogeneous supercomputer architectures pose a great challenge to many scientific communities trying to leverage the latest technology in...     

The zircon evidence of temporally changing sediment transport—the NW Gondwana margin during Cambrian to Devonian time (Aoucert and Smara areas,Moroccan Sahara)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Detrital zircon provenance studies are an established tool to develop palaeogeographic models, mostly based on zircon of siliciclastic rocks and isotope...     

On the generation of modified low‐frequency Farley‐Buneman waves in the solar atmosphere

The possibility of the excitation of Farley‐Buneman turbulence in the solar atmosphere is examined. It is found that the conditions for the generation of the modified Farley‐Buneman instability can be realized in the chromosphere of the Sun 1000 km above the photosphere. While usual Farley‐Buneman waves studied in relation to the Earth's ionosphere are almost electrostatic, the modified Farley‐Buneman waves in the solar atmosphere are electromagnetic ones. This means, that not only the potential electric field caused by the charge distribution, but also the perturbations of the magnetic field and the circularly‐polarized electric field are essential. Although the physical pictures of usual and modified Farley‐Buneman waves are different, their dispersion equations are almost the same. However, the increment of the modified Farley‐Buneman waves is varied by additional electromagnetic effects. It is demonstrated that electromagnetic effects hinder a Farley‐Buneman instability in occurring while ξ < 1, where ξ is the square of the ratio of ion plasma frequency times ion‐neutral frequency to ion‐cyclotron frequency times wave number times speed of light in vacuum. Under the condition ξ > 1, no Farley‐Buneman disturbances appear at all. In weakly‐ionized solar regions, the modified (ξ < 1) and also the usual (ξ ≪ 1) Farley‐Buneman turbulence could make “electromagnetic” contributions to the process of energy dissipation of nonstationary streams of neutral gases. Besides, they may modify the low‐frequency acoustic noise. It seems that the modified Farley‐Buneman turbulence contributes to the sporadic radiation of the Sun. It is possible, that such an effect takes not only place in the chromosphere of the Sun, but also in the atmospheres of other stars.     

The European Large Area ISO Survey – III. 90-μm extragalactic source counts

We present results and source counts at 90 μm extracted from the preliminary analysis of the European Large Area ISO Survey (ELAIS). The survey covered about 12 deg² of the sky in four main areas and was carried out with the ISOPHOT instrument onboard the Infrared Space Observatory ( ISO ). The survey is at least an order of magnitude deeper than the IRAS 100-μm survey and is expected to provide constraints on the formation and evolution of galaxies. The majority of the detected sources are associated with galaxies on optical images. In some cases the optical associations are interacting pairs or small groups of galaxies, suggesting that the sample may include a significant fraction of luminous infrared galaxies. The source counts extracted from a reliable subset of the detected sources are in agreement with strongly evolving models of the starburst galaxy population.