Runoff evolution in the Swiss Alps: projections for selected high‐alpine catchments based on ENSEMBLES scenarios

The Alps are often referred to as the ‘water tower of Europe’. In Switzerland, many branches of the economy, especially the hydropower industry, are closely linked to and dependent on the availability of water. Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow runoff is, thus, of great interest. Major efforts have already been made in this respect, but the analyses often focus on individual catchments and are difficult to intercompare. In this article, we analysed nine high‐alpine catchments spread over the Swiss Alps, selected for their relevance to a wide range of morphological characteristics. Runoff projections were carried out until the end of the current century by applying the Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) and climate scenarios generated in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. We focused on assessing the uncertainty induced by the unknown climate evolution and provided general, statistically based statements, which should be useful as a ‘rule of thumb’ for analyses addressing questions related to water management. Catchments with a high degree of glacierization will undergo the largest changes. General statements about absolute variations in discharge are unreliable, but an overall pattern, with an initial phase of increased annual discharge, followed by a phase with decreasing discharge, is recognizable for all catchments with a significant degree of glacierization. In these catchments, a transition from glacial and glacio‐nival regime types to nival will occur. The timing of maximal annual runoff is projected to occur before 2050 in all basins. The time of year with maximal daily discharges is expected to occur earlier at a rate of 4·4 ± 1·7 days per decade. Compared to its present level, the contribution of snow‐ and icemelt to annual discharge is projected to drop by 15 to 25% until the year 2100. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).     

Human biometeorological evaluation of heat-related mortality in Vienna

The relationship between heat stress and mortality in the federal state of Vienna (Austria) was analyzed from 1970 to 2007. Long-term trends of mortality data and short-term adaptation to heat stress were considered by two complex approaches. The evaluation is based on the human biometeorological parameter, physiologically equivalent temperature. The results revealed a significant impact of heat stress on the human health, with a significantly higher sensitivity on women compared to men. Additionally, higher risks of deaths due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were found. During the long period of 38?years, some significant decreases of the sensitivity were found, especially in the medium heat stress levels. This could indicate active processes of long-term adaptation to the increasing heat stress.     

The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria

The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socio-economic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85% and specificity 95%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate, and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk.     

Evaluation and suggestions for improvement of seismic design procedures for R/C walls in dual systems

This paper aims to shed some further light on the seismic behaviour and design of reinforced concrete (R/C) walls which form part of dual (frame + wall) structures. The significance of post‐elastic dynamic effects is recognized by most seismic codes in the definition of the design action effects on walls, i.e. bending moments and shear forces. However, the resulting envelopes are not always fully satisfactory, particularly in the case of medium‐to‐high‐rise buildings. The relevant provisions of modern seismic codes are first summarized and their limitations discussed. Then an extensive parametric study is presented which involves typical multi‐storey dual systems that include walls with unequal lengths, designed according to the provisions of Eurocode 8 for two different ductility classes (M and H) and two effective peak ground acceleration levels (0.16 and 0.24g). The walls of these structures are also designed according to other methods, such as those used in New Zealand and Greece. The resulting different designs are then assessed by subjecting the structures to a suite of records from strong ground motions, carrying out inelastic time history analysis, and comparing the results with the design action effects. It is found that for (at least) the design earthquake intensity, the first two modes of vibration suffice for describing the seismic response of the walls. The bending moment envelope, as well as the base shear of each wall, is found to be strongly dependent on the second mode effect. As far as the code‐prescribed design action effects are concerned, only the NZ Code was found to be consistently conservative, whereas this was not always the case with EC8. A new method is then proposed which focuses on quantifying in a simple way the second mode effects in the inelastic response of the walls. This procedure seems to work better than the others evaluated herein. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding and Modelling Rapid Dynamic Changes of Tidewater Outlet Glaciers: Issues and Implications

Recent dramatic acceleration, thinning and retreat of tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland raises concern regarding their contribution to future sea-level rise. These dynamic changes seem to be parallel to oceanic and climatic warming but the linking mechanisms and forcings are poorly understood and, furthermore, large-scale ice sheet models are currently unable to realistically simulate such changes which provides a major limitation in our ability to predict dynamic mass losses. In this paper we apply a specifically designed numerical flowband model to Jakobshavn Isbrae (JIB), a major marine outlet glacier of the Greenland ice sheet, and we explore and discuss the basic concepts and emerging issues in our understanding and modelling ability of the dynamics of tidewater outlet glaciers. The modelling demonstrates that enhanced ocean melt is able to trigger the observed dynamic changes of JIB but it heavily relies on the feedback between calving and terminus retreat and therefore the loss of buttressing. Through the same feedback, other forcings such as reduced winter sea-ice duration can produce similar rapid retreat. This highlights the need for a robust representation of the calving process and for improvements in the understanding and implementation of forcings at the marine boundary in predictive ice sheet models. Furthermore, the modelling uncovers high sensitivity and rapid adjustment of marine outlet glaciers to perturbations at their marine boundary implying that care should be taken in interpreting or extrapolating such rapid dynamic changes as recently observed in Greenland.     

The use of natural and archeological analogues for understanding the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses

The knowledge of the long-term behavior of nuclear waste in anticipation of ultimate disposal in a deep geological formation is of prime importance in a waste management strategy. If phenomenological models have been developed to predict the long-term behavior of these materials, validating these models remains a challenge, when considering the time scale of radioactive decay of radionuclides of environmental concern, typically 10⁴–10⁵ yrs. Here we show how natural or archaeological analogues provide critical constraints not only on the phenomenology of glass alteration and the mechanisms involved, but also on the ability of experimental short-term data to predict long-term alteration in complex environments.     

Polyphase movement on the Lavanttal Fault Zone (Eastern Alps): reconciling the evidence from different geochronological indicators

The Lavanttal Fault Zone (LFZ) is generally considered to be related to Miocene orogen-parallel escape tectonics in the Eastern Alps. By applying thermochronological methods with retention temperatures ranging from ~450 to ~40°C we have investigated the thermochronological evolution of the LFZ and the adjacent Koralm Complex (Eastern Alps). ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating on white mica and zircon fission track (ZFT) thermochronology were carried out on host rocks (HRs) and fault-related rocks (cataclasites and fault gouges) directly adjacent to the unfaulted protolith. These data are interpreted together with recently published apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite (U-Th)/He ages. Sample material was taken from three drill cores transecting the LFZ. Ar release spectra in cataclastic shear zones partly show strongly rejuvenated incremental ages, indicating lattice distortion during cataclastic shearing or hydrothermal alteration. Integrated plateau ages from fault rocks (~76 Ma) are in parts slightly younger than plateau ages from HRs (>80 Ma). Incremental ages from fault rock samples are in part highly reduced (~43 Ma). ZFT ages within fault gouges (~65 Ma) are slightly reduced compared to the ages from HRs, and fission tracks show reduced lengths. Combining these results with AFT and apatite (U-Th)/He ages from fault rocks of the same fault zone allows the recognition of distinct faulting events along the LFZ from Miocene to Pliocene times. Contemporaneous with this faulting, the Koralm Complex experienced accelerated cooling in Late Miocene times. Late-Cretaceous to Palaeogene movement on the LFZ cannot be clearly proven. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar muscovite and ZFT ages were probably partly thermally affected along the LFZ during Miocene times.     

Does small-scale vertical distribution of juvenile schooling fish affect prey availability to surface-feeding seabirds in the Wadden Sea?

Food availability is a key variable influencing breeding performance and demography of marine top predators. Due to methodological problems, proportionality between fish abundance and availability is often assumed without being explicitly tested. More specifically, better breeding performance of surface-feeding seabirds at times of large prey stocks suggests that prey availability is also a function of prey abundance. Using vertically resolved stow net sampling we tested whether local abundance and length composition of pelagic fish are reliable predictors of the availability of these fish to surface-feeding Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) breeding in the German Wadden Sea. Prey fish were found to concentrate below the maximum diving depth of the terns. Individuals caught close to the surface were in most cases smaller than conspecifics caught at greater depth. Correlations between fish abundance within and out of reach of the terns appeared to be both species- and site-specific rather than driven by overall fish abundance. Vertical distribution patterns of the terns' main prey fish could be explained as anti-predator behavior, reducing prey availability to the terns. In 2007, when breeding performance was much better than in 2006, herring and whiting were much more abundant, suggesting that overall prey abundance may also increase prey availability in habitats other than those represented by the stow net sampling.     

Factors affecting CO2 storage capacity and efficiency with water withdrawal in shallow saline aquifers

Carbon sequestration in shallow aquifers can be facilitated by water withdrawal. The factors that optimize the injection/withdrawal balance to minimize potential environmental impacts have been studied, including reservoir size, well pattern, injection rate, reservoir heterogeneity, anisotropy ratio, and permeability sequence. The effects of these factors on CO₂ storage capacity and efficiency were studied using a compositional simulator Computer Modeling Group-General Equation of State Model, which modeled features including residual gas trapping, CO₂ solubility, and mineralization reactions. Two terms, storage efficiency and CO₂ relative breakthrough time, were introduced to better describe the problem. The simulation results show that simultaneous water withdrawal during CO₂ injection greatly improves CO₂ storage capacity and efficiency. A certain degree of heterogeneity or anisotropy benefits CO₂ storage. A high injection rate favors storage capacity, but reduces the storage efficiency and CO₂ breakthrough time, which in turn limits the total amount of CO₂ injected.