Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise

What could happen to the Netherlands if, in 2030, the sea level starts to rise and eventually, after 100 years, a sea level of 5 m above current level would be reached? This question is addressed by studying literature, by interviewing experts in widely differing fields, and by holding an expert workshop on this question. Although most experts believe that geomorphology and current engineering skills would enable the country to largely maintain its territorial integrity, there are reasons to assume that this is not likely to happen. Social processes that precede important political decisions – such as the growth of the belief in the reality of sea level rise and the framing of such decisions in a proper political context (policy window) – evolve slowly. A flood disaster would speed up the decision-making process. The shared opinion of the experts surveyed is that eventually part of the Netherlands would be abandoned.     

Heatwaves in Europe: areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies

This work presents a methodology to study the interannual variability associated with summertime months in which extremely hot temperatures are frequent. Daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature fields (T _max and T _min, respectively) are used to define indexes of extreme months based on the number of days crossing thresholds. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the monthly indexes. EOF loadings give information about the geographical areas where the number of days per month with extreme temperatures has the largest variability. Correlations between the EOF principal components and the time series of other fields allow plotting maps highlighting the anomalies in the large scale circulation and in the SSTs that are associated with the occurrence of extreme events. The methodology is used to construct the “climatology” of the extremely hot summertime months over Europe. In terms of both interannual and intraseasonal variability, there are three regions in which the frequency of the extremely hot days per month homogeneously varies: north-west Europe, Euro-Mediterranean and Eurasia region. Although extremes over those regions occur during the whole summer (June to August), the anomalous climatic conditions associated with frequent heatwaves present some intraseasonal variability. Extreme climate events over the north-west Europe and Eurasia are typically related to the occurrence of blocking situations. The intraseasonal variability of those patterns is related to the amplitude of the blocking, the relative location of the action centre and the wavetrain of anomalies downstream or upstream of the blocking. During June and July, blocking situations which give extremely hot climate conditions over north-west Europe are also associated with cold conditions over the eastern Mediterranean sector. The Euro-Mediterranean region is a transition area in which extratropical and tropical systems compete, influencing the occurrence of climate events: blockings tend to be related to extremely hot months during June while baroclinic anomalies dominate the variability of the climate events in July and August. We highlight that our method could be easily applied to other regions of the world, to other fields as well as to model outputs to assess, e.g. the potential change of extreme climate events in a warmer climate.     

基于ENVISAT/ASAR资料的土壤湿度反演方法

提出了利用ENVISAT/ASAR/AP模式VV极化的低入射角数据和黄土高原陆面过程试验资料对黄土高原平凉试验区表层土壤湿度进行反演的方法。结果表明:在相对平坦的混合地表类型区域,反演的土壤湿度与地面实测值平均误差<0.02 cm3.cm-3,绝对误差均在0.04 cm3.cm-3范围内,该结果能较好地对黄土高原塬区土壤湿度进行干旱监测;但在陡峭山坡及塬边等地形起伏较大的区域,结果较差。     

专用气候数据空间插值软件ANUSPLIN及其应用

空间化的气候数据作为环境因子参数是区域气候模型和地学模型的基础,而插值软件是实现气候观测点数据空间化的工具.ANUSPLIN基于薄盘样条函数理论,引入多个影响因子作为协变量进行气象要素空间插值,大大提高插值精度,且能同时进行多个表面的空间插值,对时间序列的气象要素更加适合.     

The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle

Large amounts of carbon (C) have been released into the atmosphere over the past centuries. Less than half of this C stays in the atmosphere. The remainder is taken up by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Where does the C come from and where and when does this uptake occur? We address these questions by providing new estimates of regional land-use emissions and natural carbon fluxes for the 1700–2000 period, simultaneously considering multiple anthropogenic (e.g. land and energy demand) and biochemical factors in a geographically explicit manner. The observed historical atmospheric CO₂ concentration profile for the 1700 to 2000 period has been reproduced well. The terrestrial natural biosphere has been a major carbon sink, due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂, nitrogen and management. Due to land-use change large amounts of carbon have been emitted into the atmosphere. The net effect was an emission of 35 Pg C into the atmosphere for the 1700 to 2000 period. If land use had remained constant at its distribution in 1700, then the terrestrial C uptake would have increased by 142 Pg C. This overall difference of including or excluding land-use changes (i.e. 177 Pg C) comes to more than half of the historical fossil-fuel related emissions of 308 Pg C. Historically, global land-use emissions were predominantly caused by the expansion of cropland and pasture, while wood harvesting (for timber and fuel wood) only played a minor role. These findings are robust even when changing some of the important drivers like the extent of historical land-use changes. Under varying assumptions, land-use emissions over the past three centuries could have increased up to 20%, but remained significantly lower than from other sources. Combining the regional land-use and natural C fluxes, North America and Europe were net C sources before 1900, but turned into sinks during the twentieth century. Nowadays, these fluxes are a magnitude smaller than energy- and industry-related emissions. Tropical regions were C neutral prior to 1950, but then accelerated deforestation turned these regions into major C sources. The energy- and industry-related emissions are currently increasing in many tropical regions, but are still less than the land-use emissions. Based on the presented relevance of the land-use and natural fluxes for the historical C cycle and the significance of fossil-fuel emissions nowadays, there is a need for an integrated approach for energy, nature and land use in evaluating possible climate change mitigation policies.     

Diurnal and Seasonal Trends in Convective Mixed-Layer Heights Estimated from Two Years of Continuous Ceilometer Observations in Vancouver,BC

Twenty-six months of continuous ceilometer data are used to estimate the convective mixed-layer height for 710 days by identifying backscatter gradients associated with the entrainment zone. To accomplish this, a semi-automatic procedure is developed that removes all non-applicable data before applying a mixed-layer height algorithm to the backscatter profiles. Two different algorithms for estimating the mixed-layer height are assessed: the minimum-gradient method and the ideal-profile method. The latter of these two algorithms is found to be more robust. Comparisons of mixed-layer height values estimated from the ceilometer agree with previous observations with slightly higher estimates in the mornings and evenings. For clear days with no cumulus cloud formation, the seasonal cycle in mixed-layer heights peaks in late June to early July. Daily maximum values are suppressed by the site’s coastal location, remaining below 800 m for all but a few days. The mean daily maximum mixed-layer height increases by 384 m for days with boundary-layer clouds. The mean summer diurnal trend is found not to differ greatly from that in spring on clear days, while days with boundary-layer clouds have higher spring values than in summer. Net surface heat flux and synoptic stability likely have the largest influence on the mixed-layer heights. Additionally, large intra-monthly variability suggests a strong influence from regional dynamics.     

Study of the total lightning activity in a hailstorm

A thunderstorm that developed over northeastern Spain on 16 June 2006 is analyzed. This severe thunderstorm produced hailstones as large as 40 mm and had a lifetime of 3 h and 30 min. Radar cross-sections show strong vertical development with cloud echo tops reaching an altitude of 13 km. The specific characteristics of the lightning activity of this storm were: (i) a large amount (81%) of negative cloud-to-ground (−CG) flashes with very low peak currents (< 10 kA in absolute value), (ii) a very large proportion of intra-cloud (IC) flashes with an IC/CG ratio reaching about 400, (iii) a large number of “short” IC flashes (with only 1-VHF source according to SAFIR detection), (iv) a large increase of the −CG flash rate and of the CG proportion near the end of the storm. The rate of −CG flashes with a low peak current were observed to evolve similarly to the rates of IC flashes. Most of them have been assumed to be IC flashes misclassified by the Spanish Lightning Detection Network (SLDN). They have been filtered as it is usually done for misclassified +CG flashes. After this filtering, CG flash rates remained very low (< 1 min^− 1) with +CG flashes sometimes dominant. All the particular lightning activity characteristics similar to those observed in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) campaigns support the hypothesis that this thunderstorm could have had an inverted-polarity or complex charge structure. The maximum IC flash rate (67 min^− 1) peaked 24 min before the presence of reflectivity higher than 60 dBZ. The IC activity abruptly decreased during the period when reflectivity was dramatically increasing. The time of maximum reflectivity observed by radar was consistent with the times of reported hail at the ground.     

塔里木盆地中南部麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带变形特征及其意义

麻扎塔格地区地层、地貌及构造变形特征的研究,对于认识塔里木盆地新生代构造演化过程、塔里木—西昆仑的盆山耦合关系、新构造运动对塔里木油气资源分布的影响以及塔克拉玛干沙漠的气候、环境变化都具有重要意义。本文通过卫星照片解译、野外变形观察、剖面实测、地球物理资料解释等手段,对该地区晚新生代的构造特征进行了研究,确定了麻扎塔格构造带为典型的逆冲—褶皱带,并探讨了麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带的构造指向、活动时限、隆升速率及缩短速率、东西方向的延伸等问题,取得如下认识:1)麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带为西昆仑山前陆褶皱冲断带的前缘部位,和田河气田就是处在逆冲前锋背斜顶部,晚新生代变形作用已明显地改造了塔里木盆地南部及中部的古生代和中生代构造,并促成了和田河气田的形成;2)麻扎塔格山在中新世末(约7 Ma)和中更新世(约780 ka B.P.)经历了两次构造隆升,后一次形成了麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带和麻扎塔格山现今的地貌特征;3)估算出麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带中更新世以来的隆升速率约为0.26～0.4 mm/a,缩短速率约为0.9 mm/a;4)认为麻扎塔格逆冲—褶皱带向西应与同属西昆仑山前褶皱—冲断带前缘的喀什背斜相连,东端的突然消失可能是由于东段和田河附近存在北东—南西向的走滑断层造成。