La Plata basin precipitation variability in spring: role of remote SST forcing as simulated by GCM experiments

An ensemble of nine experiments with the same interannually varying sea surface temperature (SST), as boundary forcing, and different initial conditions is used to investigate the role of tropical oceans in modulating precipitation variability in the region of La Plata Basin (LPB). The results from the ensemble are compared with a twentieth-century experiment performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, sharing the same atmospheric component. A rotated empirical orthogonal functions analysis of South America precipitation shows that the dominant mode of variability in spring is realistically captured in both experiments. Its principal component (RPC1) correlated with global SST and atmospheric fields identifies the pattern related to El Niño Southern Oscillation and its large-scale teleconnections. Overall the pattern is well simulated in the tropical southern Pacific Ocean, mainly in the ensemble, but it is absent or too weak in other oceanic areas. The coupled model experiment shows a more realistic correlation in the subtropical South Atlantic where air-sea interactions contribute to the relationship between LPB precipitation and SST. The correspondence between model and data is much improved when the composite analysis of SST and atmospheric fields is done over the ensemble members having an RPC1 in agreement with the observations: the improvement relies on avoiding climate noise by averaging only over members that are statistically similar. Furthermore, the result suggests the presence of a high level of uncertainty due to internal atmospheric variability. The analysis of some individual years selected from the model and data RPC1 comparison reveals interesting differences among rainy springs in LPB. For example, 1982, which corresponds to a strong El Niño year, represents a clean case with a distinct wave train propagating from the central Pacific and merging with another one from the eastern tropical south Indian Ocean. The year 2003 is an example of a rainy spring in LPB not directly driven by remote SST forcing. In this case the internal variability has a dominant role, as the model is not able to reproduce the correct local precipitation pattern.     

Long-Term Profiles of Wind and Weibull Distribution Parameters up to 600 m in a Rural Coastal and an Inland Suburban Area

An investigation of the long-term variability of wind profiles for wind energy applications is presented. The observations consists of wind measurements obtained from a ground-based wind lidar at heights between 100 and 600 m, in combination with measurements from tall meteorological towers at a flat rural coastal site in western Denmark and at an inland suburban area near Hamburg in Germany. Simulations with the weather research and forecasting numerical model were carried out in both forecast and analysis configurations. The scatter between measured and modelled wind speeds expressed by the root-mean-square error was about 10 % lower for the analysis compared to the forecast simulations. At the rural coastal site, the observed mean wind speeds above 60 m were underestimated by both the analysis and forecast model runs. For the inland suburban area, the mean wind speed is overestimated by both types of the simulations below 500 m. When studying the wind-speed variability with the Weibull distribution, the shape parameter was always underestimated by the forecast compared to both analysis simulations and measurements. At the rural coastal site although the measured and modelled Weibull distributions are different their variances are nearly the same. It is suggested to use the shape parameter for climatological mesoscale model evaluation. Based on the new measurements, a parametrization of the shape parameter for practical applications is suggested.     

Late-Glacial and Holocene Record of Lake Levels of Mathews Pond and Whitehead Lake,Northern Maine,USA

Paleohydrology studies at Mathews Pond and Whitehead Lake in northern Maine revealed synchronous changes in lake levels from about 12,000 ¹⁴C yrs BP to the present. We analyzed gross sediment structure, organic and carbonate content, mineral grain size, and macrofossils of six cores from each of the two lakes, and obtained 72 radiocarbon dates. Interpretation of this paleo-environmental data suggests that the late-glacial and Younger Dryas climate was dry, and lake levels were low. Early Holocene lake levels were considerably higher but declined for an interval from about 8000 to 7200 ¹⁴C yrs BP. Sediment of both lakes contains evidence of a dry period at ∼7400 ¹⁴C yrs BP (8200 cal yr). Lake levels of both sites declined abruptly about 4800 ¹⁴C yrs BP and remained low until 3000 ¹⁴C yrs BP. Modern lake levels were achieved only within the past 600 years. The west-to-east, time-transgressive nature of lake-level changes from several sites across northeastern North America suggests periodic changes in atmospheric circulation patterns as a driving force behind observed moisture balance changes. Electronic supplementary material to this article is available at and accessible for authorized users.     

Solubility of Fe-ettringite (Ca6[Fe(OH)6]2(SO4)3 · 26H2O)

The solubility of Fe-ettringite (Ca₆[Fe(OH)₆]₂(SO₄)₃ · 26H₂O) was measured in a series of precipitation and dissolution experiments at 20 °C and at pH-values between 11.0 and 14.0 using synthesised material. A time-series study showed that equilibrium was reached within 180 days of ageing. After equilibrating, the solid phases were analysed by XRD and TGA while the aqueous solutions were analysed by ICP-OES (calcium, sulphur) and ICP-MS (iron). Fe-ettringite was found to be stable up to pH 13.0. At higher pH-values Fe-monosulphate (Ca₄[Fe(OH)₆]₂(SO₄) · 6H₂O) and Fe-monocarbonate (Ca₄[Fe(OH)₆]₂(CO₃) · 6H₂O) are formed. The solubilities of these hydrates at 25 °C are:      

The Alpine Seed Conservation and Research Network–a new initiative to conserve valuable plant species in the European Alps

Safeguarding plants as seeds in ex situ collections is a cost effective element in an integrated plant conservation approach. The European Alps are a regional centre of plant diversity. Six institutions have established a regional network covering the European Alps which will conserve at least 500 priority plant species and which will improve the conservation status of plant species in grassland communities in the subalpine, alpine and nival altitudinal belts. Targeted research will expand the knowledge of the ecology of target species. Public engagement activities will raise the awareness for the importance of specific conservation actions in the European Alps.     

On Blind Tests and Spatial Prediction Models

This contribution discusses the usage of blind tests, BT, to cross-validate and interpret the results of predictions by statistical models applied to spatial databases. Models such as Bayesian probability, empirical likelihood ratio, fuzzy sets, or neural networks were and are being applied to identify areas likely to contain events such as undiscovered mineral resources, zones of high natural hazard, or sites with high potential environmental impact. By processing the information in a spatial database, the models establish the relationships between the distribution of known events and their contextual settings, described by both thematic and continuous data layers. The relationships are to locate situations where similar events are likely to occur. Maps of predicted relative resource potential or of relative hazard/impact levels are generated. They consist of relative values that need careful quantitative scrutiny to be interpreted for taking decisions on further action in exploration or on hazard/impact mitigation and avoidance. The only meaning of such relative values is their rank. Obviously, to assess the reliability of the predicted ranks, tests are indispensable. This is also a consequence of the impracticality of waiting for the future to reveal the goodness of our prediction. During the past decade only a few attempts have been made by some researchers to cross-validate the results of spatial predictions. Furthermore, assumptions and applications of cross-validations differ considerably in a number of recent case studies. A perspective for all such experiments is provided using two specific examples, one in mineral exploration and the other in landslide hazard, to answer the fundamental question: how good is my prediction?     

Trench-forearc interactions reflected in the sedimentary fill of Talara basin, northwest Peru

Exceptional exposure of the forearc region of NW Peru offers insight into evolving convergent margins. The sedimentary fill of the Talara basin spans the Cretaceous to the Eocene for an overall thickness of 9000 m and records within its stratigraphy the complicated history of plate interactions, subduction tectonics, terrane accretion, and Andean orogeny. By the early Tertiary, extensional tectonism was forming a complex horst and graben system that partitioned the basin into a series of localized depocentres. Eocene strata record temporal transitions from deltaic and fluvial to deep‐water depositional environments as a response to abrupt, tectonically controlled relative sea‐level changes across those depocentres. Stratigraphic and provenance data suggest a direct relationship between sedimentary packaging and regional tectonics, marked by changes in source terranes at major unconformities. A sharp shift is recognized at the onset of deepwater (bathyal) sedimentation of the Talara Formation, whose sediments reflect an increased influx of mafic material to the basin, likely related to the arc region. Although the modern topography of the Amotape Mountains partially isolates the Talara basin from the Lancones basin and the Andean Cordillera to the east, provenance data suggest that the Amotape Mountains were not always an obstacle for Cordilleran sediment dispersal. The mountain belt intermittently isolated the Talara basin from Andean‐related sediment throughout the early Tertiary, allowing arc‐related sediment to reach the basin only during periods of subsidence in the forearc region, probably related to plate rearrangement and/or seamounts colliding with the trench. Intraplate coupling and/or partial locking of subduction plates could be among the major causes behind shifts from contraction to extension (and enhanced subduction erosion) in the forearc region. Eventually, collisional tectonic and terrane accretion along the Ecuadorian margin forced a major late‐Eocene change in sediment dispersal.     

Environmental and socioeconomic dynamics of the Indian Ocean tsunami in Penang,Malaysia

This paper addresses some of the environmental and socioeconomic dimensions of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on Penang, Malaysia. We aim to offer wide access to unique and perishable data, while at the same time providing insight to ongoing debates about hazards, vulnerability and social capital. Our social survey examines some of the dynamics that shaped the tsunami impact, response and recovery process. While in terms of lives lost Penang may not conform to arguments surrounding vulnerable environments, the recovery process is more marked by social disparities in terms of the ability to access resources. Our physical survey records local topography, flow depth and flow direction, and charts the differential impact of the tsunami. Yet measuring hazards is not a straightforward process, and relies on reflexive methodologies and eyewitness accounts.     

Magma convection and mixing dynamics as a source of Ultra-Long-Period oscillations

Many volcanic eruptions are shortly preceded by injection of new magma into a pre-existing, shallow (<10 km) magma chamber, causing convection and mixing between the incoming and resident magmas. These processes may trigger dyke propagation and further magma rise, inducing long-term (days to months) volcano deformation, seismic swarms, gravity anomalies, and changes in the composition of volcanic plumes and fumaroles, eventually culminating in an eruption. Although new magma injection into shallow magma chambers can lead to hazardous event, such injection is still not systematically detected and recognized. Here, we present the results of numerical simulations of magma convection and mixing in geometrically complex magmatic systems, and describe the multiparametric dynamics associated with buoyant magma injection. Our results reveal unexpected pressure trends and pressure oscillations in the Ultra-Long-Period (ULP) range of minutes, related to the generation of discrete plumes of rising magma. Very long pressure oscillation wavelengths translate into comparably ULP ground displacements with amplitudes of order 10⁻⁴–10⁻² m. Thus, new magma injection into magma chambers beneath volcanoes can be revealed by ULP ground displacement measured at the surface.