Seafloor distribution and last glacial to postglacial activity of mud volcanoes on the Calabrian accretionary prism,Ionian Sea

Mud volcanoes (MVs) are abundant along the eastern Mediterranean subduction zones, recording mud breccia extrusion over long timescales (10⁶ years), but to date relatively few have been recognised in the northern Ionian Sea on the Calabrian accretionary prism (CAP). In the present study, the seafloor distribution and recent activity of MVs is investigated across a 35,600 km² sector of the CAP using a regional acoustic dataset (multibeam bathymetric and backscatter imagery, integrated with subbottom profiles) locally ground-truthed by sediment cores. A total of 54 MVs are identified across water depths of 150–2,750 m using up to four geophysical criteria: distinctive morphology, high backscatter, unstratified subbottom facies and, in one case, a hydroacoustic flare. Fourteen MVs are identified from 3–4 criteria, of which five have been previously proven by cores containing mud breccia beneath up to 1.6 m of hemipelagic sediments (Madonna dello Ionio MVs 1–3, Pythagoras MV and the newly named Sartori MV), while nine others are identified for the first time (Athena, Catanzaro, Cerere, Diana, Giunone, Minerva, ‘right foot’, Venere 1 and 2). Forty other as yet unnamed MVs are inferred from 1–2 geophysical criteria (three from distinctive morphology alone). All but one possible MV lie on the inner plateau of the CAP, landwards of the Calabrian Escarpment in a zone up to 120 km wide that includes the inner pre-Messinian wedge and the fore-arc basins, where they are interpreted to record the ascent from depth of overpressured fluids that interacted with tectonic structures and with evaporitic or shale seals within the fore-arc basins. The rise of fluids may have been triggered by post-Messinian out-of-sequence tectonism that affected the entire pre-Messinian prism, but Plio-Quaternary sedimentation rates and depositional styles support the inference that significant mud volcanism has taken place only on the inner plateau. Sedimentation rates across the CAP applied to a 12 khz sonar detection depth of 225 cm imply that all MVs with backscatter signatures (50 of 54) have erupted mud breccias within the last 56 ka, and within the last 12.5 ka in the fore-arc basins. Ages of eruption estimated from the depth of cored mud breccias at five MVs, and a seismo-stratigraphic relationship at a sixth, indicate episodes at the last glacial maximum ca. 20 ka BP and during the postglacial period. Eruptive episodes within the Calabrian MV province constitute recurrent geohazards, separated by longer periods of quiescent (subdued) fluid seepage that are likely to support gas hydrate formation and chemosynthetic ecosystems.     

Machine Learning Feature Selection Methods for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

This paper explores the use of adaptive support vector machines, random forests and AdaBoost for landslide susceptibility mapping in three separated regions of Canton Vaud, Switzerland, based on a set of geological, hydrological and morphological features. The feature selection properties of the three algorithms are studied to analyze the relevance of features in controlling the spatial distribution of landslides. The elimination of irrelevant features gives simpler, lower dimensional models while keeping the classification performance high. An object-based sampling procedure is considered to reduce the spatial autocorrelation of data and to estimate more reliably generalization skills when applying the model to predict the occurrence of new unknown landslides. The accuracy of the models, the relevance of features and the quality of landslide susceptibility maps were found to be high in the regions characterized by shallow landslides and low in the ones with deep-seated landslides. Despite providing similar skill, random forests and AdaBoost were found to be more efficient in performing feature selection than adaptive support vector machines. The results of this study reveal the strengths of the classification algorithms, but evidence: (1) the need for relying on more than one method for the identification of relevant variables; (2) the weakness of the adaptive scaling algorithm when used with landslide data; and (3) the lack of additional features which characterize the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides.     

Numerical Modelling of the Anisotropic Mechanical Behaviour of Opalinus Clay at the Laboratory-Scale Using FEM/DEM

The Opalinus Clay (OPA) is an argillaceous rock formation selected to host a deep geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste in Switzerland. It has been shown that the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) in this formation is heavily affected by the anisotropic mechanical response of the material related to the presence of bedding planes. In this context, the purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to illustrate the new developments that have been introduced into the combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM) to model layered materials and (ii) to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach in simulating the short-term mechanical response of OPA at the laboratory-scale. A transversely isotropic elastic constitutive law is implemented to account for the anisotropic elastic modulus, while a procedure to incorporate a distribution of preferentially oriented defects is devised to capture the anisotropic strength. Laboratory results of indirect tensile tests and uniaxial compression tests are used to calibrate the numerical model. Emergent strength and deformation properties, together with the simulated damage mechanisms, are shown to be in strong agreement with experimental observations. Subsequently, the calibrated model is validated by investigating the effect of confinement and the influence of the loading angle with respect to the specimen anisotropy. Simulated fracture patterns are discussed in the context of the theory of brittle rock failure and analyzed with reference to the EDZ formation mechanisms observed at the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory.     

Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification,classification and frequencies of events

Severe weather can have serious repercussions in the transport sector as a whole by increasing the number of accidents, injuries and other damage, as well as leading to highly increased travel times. This study, a component of the EU FP7 Project EWENT, delineates a Europe-wide climatology of adverse and extreme weather events that can be expected to affect the transport network. We first define and classify the relevant severe weather events by investigating the effects of hazardous conditions on different transportation modes and the infrastructure. Consideration is given to individual phenomena such as snowfall, heavy precipitation, heat waves, cold spells, wind gusts; a combined phenomenon, the blizzard, is also considered. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the E-OBS dataset (1971–2000) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1989–2010). Northern Europe and the Alpine region are the areas most impacted by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter storms, the frequency of heavy snowfall. The frequency of hot days is highest in Southern Europe. Severe winds and blizzards are the most common over the Atlantic and along its shores. Although heavy rainfall may affect the whole continent on an annual basis, extreme precipitation events are relative sparse, affecting particularly the Alps and the Atlantic coastline. A European regionalization covering similar impacts on the transport network is performed.     

Monitoring large oil slick dynamics with moderate resolution multispectral satellite data

Accidental release of crude oil into the sea due to human activity causes water pollution and heavy damages to natural ecosystems killing birds, fish, mammals and other organisms. A number of monitoring systems are used for tracking the spills and their effects on the marine environment, as well as for collecting data for feeding models. Among them, Earth observation technologies play a crucial role and moderate spatial resolution satellite systems are able to collect images with a very short revisit time or even daily. This paper describes the use of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for monitoring large oil slicks with the fluorescence/emissivity index and object-based image analysis. Two case studies are presented: the Deepwater Horizon (2010) and the Campos Basin (2011) oil spill accidents. Results show that it is possible to track the dynamics of the slick both for massive and long-lasting accidents and for smaller and very quick accidents. The main advantages of the method proposed are a straightforward implementation, a fast and semi-automated data processing and the capability of integration of daytime and nighttime acquisitions, as well as its adaptability to different sensors.     

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.     

Dike emplacement and flank instability at Mount Etna: Constraints from a poro-elastic-model of flank collapse

Many volcanic edifices are subject to flank failure, usually produced by a combination of events, rather than any single process. From a dynamic point of view, the cause of collapse can be divided into factors that contribute to an increase in shear stress, and factors that contribute to the reduction in the friction coefficient μ of a potential basal failure plane. We study the potential for flank failure at Mount Etna considering a schematic section of the eastern flank, approximated by a wedge-like block. For such geometry, we perform a (steady state) limit equilibrium analysis: the resolution of the forces parallel to the possible basal failure plane allows us to determine the total force acting on the potentially unstable wedge. An estimate of the relative strength of these forces suggests that, in first approximation, the stability is controlled primarily by the balance between block weight, lithostatic load and magmatic forces. Any other force (sea load, hydrostatic uplift, and the uplift due to mechanical and thermal pore-fluid pressure) may be considered of second order. To study the model sensitivity, we let the inferred slope α of the basal surface failure vary between ?10° and 10°, and consider three possible scenarios: no magma loading, magmastatic load, and magmastatic load with magma overpressure. We use error propagation to include in our analysis the uncertainties in the estimates of the mechanics and geometrical parameters controlling the block equilibrium. When there is no magma loading, the ratio between destabilizing and stabilizing forces is usually smaller than the coefficient of friction of the basal failure plane. In the absence of an initiating mechanism, and with the nominal values of the coefficient of friction μ = 0.7 ± 0.1 proposed, the representative wedge will remain stable or continue to move at constant speed. In presence of magmastatic forces, the influence of the lateral restraint decreases. If we consider the magmastatic load only, the block will remain stable (or continue to move at constant speed), unless the transient mechanical and thermal pressurization significantly decrease the friction coefficient, increasing the instability of the flank wedge for α > 5° (seaward dipping decollement). When the magma overpressure contribution is included in the equilibrium analysis, the ratio between destabilizing and stabilizing forces is of the same order or larger than the coefficient of friction of the basal failure plane, and the block will become unstable (or accelerate), especially in the case of the reduction in friction coefficient. Finally, our work suggests that the major challenge in studying flank instability at Mount Etna is not the lack of an appropriate physical model, but the limited knowledge of the mechanical and geometrical parameters describing the block equilibrium.     

Land tenure and REDD+: The good,the bad and the ugly

A number of international donors, national governments and project proponents have begun to lay the groundwork for REDD+, but tenure insecurity – including the potential risks of land grabbing by outsiders and loss of local user rights to forests and forest land – is one of the main reasons that many indigenous and other local peoples have publicly opposed it. Under what conditions is REDD+ a threat to local rights, and under what conditions does it present an opportunity? This article explores these issues based on available data from a global comparative study on REDD+, led by the Center for International Forestry Research, which is studying national policies and processes in 12 countries and 23 REDD+ projects in 6 countries. The article analyses how tenure concerns are being addressed at both national and project level in emerging REDD+ programs. The findings suggest that in most cases REDD+ has clearly provided some new opportunities for securing local tenure rights, but that piecemeal interventions by project proponents at the local level are insufficient in the absence of broader, national programs for land tenure reform. The potential for substantial changes in the status quo appear unlikely, though Brazil – the only one with such a national land tenure reform program – offers useful insights. Land tenure reform – the recognition of customary rights in particular – and a serious commitment to REDD+ both challenge the deep-rooted economic and political interests of ‘business as usual’.     

A record of Lateglacial/Holocene environmental change from a high‐elevation site in the Intermountain West,USA

Records of past vegetation and fire history can be complicated by changes in the depositional environment of a sampling location. However, these changes can alternatively be used as a measure of climate variability. Our study site, ca. 18.0 cal. ka BP record from Little Brooklyn Lake, Wyoming, located near the crest of the Snowy Range, records three moisture states. Initially, the lake was likely a glacier‐fed pond indicated by the presence of Pediastrum algae colonies. Around 13.0 cal. ka BP this pond transitioned to a meadow environment, suggested by the loss of Pediastrum algae colonies and slow sedimentation rates. Meadow conditions were maintained until ca. 5.0 cal. ka BP when Pediastrum algae colony abundance increased,indicating the formation of a shallow lake. From 18.0 to ca. 5.0 cal. ka BP, the pollen record is suggestive of alpine vegetation conditions with relatively high spruce and herbaceous taxa. Low charcoal influx also characterizes the period between 18.0 and 5.0 cal. ka BP. After 5.0 cal. ka BP, the coincidence of the formation of shallow lake and pollen data, indicating a shift to a spruce and fir forest, suggests an increase in effective moisture. Fire remained rare in this basin over the entire record, however, once the lake established sedimentation rates and charcoal influx increased. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uniform Permian 40Ar/39Ar detrital mica ages in the eastern Qaidam Basin (NW China): where is the source?

New single‐grain ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar detrital white‐mica ages from the Lulehe section at the eastern Qaidam Basin yield uniform Permian ages between 250 ± 3 and 279 ± 3 Ma throughout the whole Cenozoic sequence. This is inconsistent with the present hinterland, which is composed of early Palaeozoic metamorphic units with subordinate early Palaeozoic and few Permian granites. The new data indicate that Permian tectonic units are likely more widespread at the north‐eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau as known at present, particularly within the Qilian Mountains. The preferred explanation is that the Qaidam block represents a rigid indenter, which indented during late Tertiary times into early Palaeozoic orogenic units. This is consistent with recent findings of a NW‐trending sinistral Permian ductile shear zone and a dextral, NW‐trending Tertiary fault system close to the north‐eastern margin of the Qaidam Basin.