Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Energy flow and elemental concentrations in the Steina River ecosystem (Black Forest, Germany)

Considering food web energetics and elemental cycling together allows the testing of hypotheses about the coevolution of biological systems and their physical environment. We investigated the energy flow and the distribution of 25 elements in the Steina River.¶We constructed an annual energy flow network and estimated the emergy ("embodied energy" that includes all the energy involved in a process) contributions of resources sustaining the system. Furthermore, we measured the concentration of various macronutrients, essential elements, and heavy metals in the physical environment and trophic compartments. Finally, we examined the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the "rarity" of an element and its tendency to bioaccumulate. To do so, we used transformity, the relative energy input required to sustain a compartment's net production or the concentration differential of an element between the living community and the physical environment.¶The resulting energy flow network is one of the most complete available for streams. In the Steina, over 99% of the energy input is transported through the system without being processed. Dissolved inorganic matter and sunlight are the largest inputs, but uptake efficiency is much higher for dissolved and particulate organic matter. Transformities of trophic compartments and elements span 6 to 7 orders of magnitude.¶The tendency to bioaccumulate was as predicted for most elements, with macronutrients showing no accumulation and heavy elements accumulating in high-transformity compartments. However, Na and K were found at highest concentrations in consumers, and Pb, Ga, and Cd in algae. Improved estimates may become possible as more knowledge is available on ecosystem flows. We suggest further ways of testing hypotheses about strategies of element processing.     

Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years

This paper compares the palaeolimnological evidence for climate change over the last 200 years with instrumental climate data for the same period at seven European remote mountain lakes. The sites are Øvre Neådalsvatn (Norway), Saanajärvi (Finland), Gossenköllesee (Austria), Hagelseewli (Switzerland), Jezero v Ledvici (Slovenia), Estany Redó (Spain, Pyrenees), and Niné Terianske Pleso (Slovakia). We used multiple regression analysis to transfer homogenised lowland air temperature records to each of the sites, and these reconstructions were validated using data from on-site automatic weather stations. These data showed that mean annual temperature has varied over the last 200 years at each site by between 1 and 2 °C, typical of the high frequency variability found throughout the Holocene, and appropriate, therefore, to test the sensitivity of the various proxy methods used. Sediment cores from each site were radiometrically dated using ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am and analysed for loss-on-ignition, C, N, S, pigments, diatoms, chrysophytes, Cladocera and chironomids. Comparisons between the proxy data and the instrumental data were based on linear regression analysis with the proxy data treated as response variables and the instrumental data (after smoothing using LOESS regressions) as predictor variables. The results showed few clear or consistent patterns with generally low or very low r² values. Highest values were found when the data were compared after smoothing using a broad span, indicating that some of the proxy data were capturing climate variability but only at a relatively coarse time resolution. Probable reasons for the weak performance of the methods used include inaccurate dating, especially for earlier time periods, the influence of confounding forcing factors at some sites e.g., air pollution, earthquakes, and the insensitivity of some methods to low amplitude climate forcing. Nevertheless, there were trends in some proxy records at a number of sites that had a relatively unambiguous correspondence with the instrumental climate records. These included organic matter and associated variables (C and N) and planktonic diatom assemblages at the majority of sites and chrysophytes and chironomids at a few sites. Overall for longer term studies of the Holocene, these results indicate the need to be cautious in the interpretation of proxy records, the importance of proxy method validation, the continuing need to use reinforcing multi-proxy approaches, and the need for careful site and method selection.     

Contributions to the Ring Current Energy During Geomagnetic Storms

The purpose of this research was to study the complexity of the energization of the ring current during a geomagnetic storm, produced during southern Bz(IMF) by the injection of plasma sheet ions, accelerated by enhanced convective electric fields. This model assumes that the plasma sheet is continuously populated by H⁺ from the sun and the ionosphere, and sporadically by ionospheric O⁺, making the ring current a coupled system whose energy can hardly be expressed analytically. When Bz(IMF) turns north, the ring current becomes uncoupled, and the energy decays exponentially if the storm is weak, or can be expressed as a combination of exponentials during strong storms representing the quick decay of O⁺ and the slower decay of H⁺, as has been shown.     

Spatial distribution and bonding forms of heavy metals in sediments along the middle course of the River Elbe (km 287ċ390)

Sediments of eight groyne fields along the middle course of the River Elbe (river km 287?390) were geochemically studied. The 78 sediment samples were analysed for pH and grain size distribution. The grain size fraction < 2 μm was used for mineralogical and chemical analysis: semiquantitative clay mineral analysis; total element content (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mn, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn), total inorganic and organic C, and bonding form fractionation with a six‐step sequential chemical extraction. The latter was performed on selected samples (n = 32). The sediments along the Elbe's course are still contaminated with heavy metals far above the local geogenic background level. An enrichment factor of more than 15 was calculated for zinc. Cr and Ni are the elements with the lowest enrichment. The bonding form analysis of selected heavy metals shows a dominance of relatively immobile bonding forms, e. g. the moderately reducible and the residual fraction, which implies a relative low mobility potential. Only Zn poses a higher potential threat to the environment, since it has a higher percentage of the first three extracted phases: adsorbed, carbonate, and easily reducible fraction.     

Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.     

Sources of dissolved REE in mountainous streams draining granitic rocks, Sierras Pampeanas (Córdoba, Argentina)

Stream waters draining granitic terrains from the highest part (850 to 2200 m a.s.l.) of Sierras Pampeanas (Córdoba, Argentina, ∼32°S, ∼65°W) were sampled in order to define sources and distribution of dissolved rare earth elements (REE), and to describe the geochemical processes that govern their mobility. The contribution of the regional granite to the dissolved REE pool in stream water is limited due to the physical conditions predominating in the area (i.e., steep slopes and semiarid climate). Therefore, precipitation is considered a seasonally significant source controlling REE concentration in stream water. Dissolved REE concentrations are inversely correlated with monthly precipitation and rainfall frequency. During the rainy season (i.e., the austral summer) REE concentrations in stream water are lower than during the dry season (i.e., austral winter). Such low concentrations reflect the balance between the REE input from precipitation and their removal by adsorption. In contrast, during the dry season, the longer residence time of water within fractures and colluvium determines an increased REE concentration in the base flow. Lower pH values also contribute to raise REE concentration through desorption from mineral surfaces.     

Bulk-rock geochemistry and plagioclase zoning in lavas exposed along the northern flank of the Western Blanco Depression (Northeast Pacific): Insight into open-system magma chamber processes

The present study is based on a set of lavas and crosscutting dikes collected by dives along detailed vertical transects on the northern flank of the western part of the Blanco Transform Fault, Northeast Pacific. The studied area consists of a small basin, the Western Blanco Depression (WBD), extending from the southern end of the Juan de Fuca ridge to a pseudofault trace 60 km eastward. The Northern Scarp of the WBD comprises a volcanic unit overlying a sheeted-dike complex. Major and trace element data, coupled with Sr–Nd isotope ratios, reveal a two-component mantle source, composed by an isotopically depleted matrix variably veined by more enriched material. One chemical group (NS2), indistinguishable from the other Northern Scarp samples on the basis of trace element data, has an unusually depleted isotopic composition typical of a nearly pure mantle end-member. Some cogenetic samples of the Northern Scarp have been used to constrain the differentiation modalities. Anorthite and MgO content profiles in plagioclase xenocrysts and phenocrysts reveal (i) the existence of H₂O-bearing evolved melts in the mushy zones and (ii) the occurrence of mixing process between these melts and anhydrous mafic liquids. The hydration is supported by other petrographic features such as high magmatic fO₂ values, calculated from Fe–Ti oxide pairs, and the presence of pyroxene inclusions in plagioclase phenocrysts. Mixing, consistent with the existence of Ni-rich ferrobasalts, is interpreted to be the consequence of the reservoir refilling by mafic liquids (Mg# = 70). These petrological and geochemical evidences are combined with the evolution of Mg# with depth to suggest a periodic open-system magma chamber evolution beneath the southern end of the Juan de Fuca ridge.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene environments in Valle Carbajal, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

The authors discuss Late Pleistocene–Holocene depositional environments in one of the Fuegian Andes valleys on the basis of palynological, geomorphological, and sedimentological analyses from two sites located near the Beagle Channel. The results obtained at these localities reinforce and refine the Late Pleistocene–Holocene climatic pattern previously recorded there. A colder period, associated with the Younger Dryas stadial event, is suggested by low Nothofagus pollen frequency, and communities of grass, low scrub, and shrub heath expanded into the low/middle slopes (10,310 ¹⁴C yr BP). By ca. 9500 ¹⁴C yr BP, warmer and drier conditions occurred, as evidenced by the development of open-grown vegetation in the valley floors (pollen zone O-3), followed by the expansion of open Nothofagus woodland (pollen zone O-2) in the middle Holocene. The milder climate subsequently changed, as indicated by the spreading of the closed forest and mire (pollen zone O-1), to more humid and cooler conditions during the last ca. 5000 yr BP.