Short-Term Ozone Forecasting with a Network Model System during Summer 1999

Within the framework of the Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) four working groups in Germany (University of Stuttgart, University of Cologne, Research Center Karlsruhe, German Weather Service) formed a network developing a model system for chemistry transport calculations on different scales. The network was optimized, based on each module and combined for the different interfaces in order to perform daily preoperational ozone forecasts and its precursors at the German Weather Service in summer 1999 (May through September). The setup of the model system, the interfaces and changes of each module are described. The results of the whole preoperational episode are displayed and discussed. Main efforts were done analyzing the model climate statistics and the verification of the predictions with an extensive data base of observations at stations in Germany. The results of this extensive verification demonstrate the relatively good performance of the entire forecast system.     

A geomorphologic kinematic‐wave (GKW) model for estimation of floods from small alpine watersheds

A geomorphologic kinematic‐wave (GKW) model was developed for simulation of extreme floods from small alpine catchments. The GKW model couples the kinematic‐wave theory and the geomorphologic representation of the catchment based on the Horton–Strahler ordering scheme. The model was tested on two small alpine catchments in Switzerland, and the agreement between simulated and observed floods was good. Care must however be taken with the computation of slope and roughness parameters. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Nu Expression for Probabilistic Data Integration

The general problem of data integration is expressed as that of combining probability distributions conditioned to each individual datum or data event into a posterior probability for the unknown conditioned jointly to all data. Any such combination of information requires taking into account data interaction for the specific event being assessed. The nu expression provides an exact analytical representation of such a combination. This representation allows a clear and useful separation of the two components of any data integration algorithm: individual data information content and data interaction, the latter being different from data dependence. Any estimation workflow that fails to address data interaction is not only suboptimal, but may result in severe bias. The nu expression reduces the possibly very complex joint data interaction to a single multiplicative correction parameter ν ₀, difficult to evaluate but whose exact analytical expression is given; availability of such an expression provides avenues for its determination or approximation. The case ν ₀=1 is more comprehensive than data conditional independence; it delivers a preliminary robust approximation in presence of actual data interaction. An experiment where the exact results are known allows the results of the ν ₀=1 approximation to be checked against the traditional estimators based on assumption of data independence.     

In-flight Performance of the Advanced Camera for Surveys CCDs

The Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS), installed in the Hubble Space telescope in March 2002, will significantly extend HST's deep, survey imaging capabilities. ACS has met, or exceeded, all of its key performance specifications. In this paper we briefly review the in-flight performance of the instrument's CCD detectors and preview early ACS science observations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fluid geochemistry of natural manifestations from the Southern Poroto–Rungwe hydrothermal system (Tanzania): Preliminary conceptual model

The South Poroto–Rungwe geothermal field, in the northern part of the Malawi rift, Tanzania divides in two main areas. The relatively high altitude northern area around the main Ngozi, Rungwe, Tukuyu and Kyejo volcanoes, is characterised by cold and gas-rich springs. In contrast, hot springs occur in the southern and low-altitude area between the Kyela and Livingstone faults. The isotopic signature of the almost stagnant, cold springs of the Northern district is clearly influenced by H₂O–CO_2(g) exchange as evidenced from negative oxygen-shifts in the order of few deltas permil. In contrast, the isotopic signature of waters discharged from the hot springs of the Southern district is markedly less affected by the H₂O–CO_2(g) interaction. This evidence is interpreted as an effect of the large, permanent outflow of these springs, which supports the hypothesis of a regional-scale recharge of the major thermal springs. Measurements of carbon isotope variations of the dissolved inorganic carbon of waters and CO_2(g) from the Northern and Southern springs support a model of CO_2(g)-driven reactivity all over the investigated area. Our combined chemical and isotopic results show that the composition of hot springs is consistent with a mixing between (i) cold surface fresh (SFW) and (ii) Deep Hot Mineralised (DHMW) Water, indicating that the deep-originated fluids also supply most of the aqueous species dissolved in the surface waters used as local potable water. Based on geothermometric approaches, the temperature of the deep hydrothermal system has been estimated to be higher than 110 °C up to 185 °C, in agreement with the geological and thermal setting of the Malawi rift basin. Geochemical data point to (i) a major upflow zone of geothermal fluids mixed with shallow meteoric waters in the Southern part of the province, and (ii) gas absorption phenomena in the small, perched aquifers of the Northern volcanic highlands.     

Tectonic controls on carbonate sequence formation in an active strike–slip setting: Serranilla Basin, Northern Nicaragua Rise, Western Caribbean Sea

The Serranilla Basin is a flat-floored, semi-circular bathymetric depression (100×100 km; 1100–1200 m deep) at the western end of the northern Nicaragua Rise (NNR) in the Caribbean Sea. It is bound to the north by the Cayman Trough, an area of active sea floor spreading, and is part of the Northern Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone (NCPBZ). Single-channel, high-resolution seismic data were calibrated to rock dredges and ODP Site 1000 to define the geologic evolution and attempt to tie sequence formation within the basin to tectonic developments in this part of the Caribbean. Five seismic sequences were identified within the basin. The two lower sequences (A and B) are interpreted as neritic and shallow periplatform deposits which infill three distinct basins that make up the early to late Miocene Serranilla Basin. The three upper sequences (C through E) are interpreted as periplatform and pelagic deposits interspersed with turbidites, and in some areas, megabreccias. Faulting is prevalent in sequences A through C in the central basin, and becomes progressively younger toward the south, disrupting the seafloor in places and perhaps indicating renewed activity along the Pedro Fracture Zone. The timing of sequence boundary formation has been correlated to tectonic activity along the NCPBZ and closure of the Central American Seaway. Possible mechanisms of sequence boundary formation include tectonic tilting within the basin in conjunction with increased turbidite deposition, carbonate platform drowning and subsequent back-stepping associated with circulation changes resulting from tectonic ‘gateway' closure, and megabreccia deposition associated with bank demise. Although a direct genetic relationship is not proven, regional tectonic changes are considered more important than eustatic sea-level changes in controlling depositional sequence formation in the Serranilla Basin.     

Magma genesis in a battered Moon: Effects of basin-forming impacts

Magma genesis in the Moon could have been significantly altered by large impacts if they melted solidified residual liquids and late cumulates from the ‘magma ocean’. Calculations of the heat required to melt these materials, under different assumed conditions, are compared to estimates of the total kinetic energy of the Imbrium impact. For a significant amount of these materials to have been melted, they must have been near their solidus temperatures, the impacts must have been very large, and the lunar lithosphere must have been locally heated at depths of 70 to 140 km. Unless the Imbrium impact released at least the maximum estimated kinetic energy, only larger impacts, e.g., the proposed ‘Gargantuan’ impact, could have augmented the intrinsic lunar heat budget enough to locally alter the abundance, timing of eruption, and chemical compositions of lunar magmas. The mechanical and thermal energy generated by such an impact could have been critical in creating (1) the higher concentrations of radioactive elements in the Imbrium/Procellarum area by migration of residual liquids driven by differential lithospheric thickness; and (2) hybrid mare basalts (representing varying proportions of late cumulates and/or residual liquids incorporated into primitive magmas rising from the partially molten lunar interior). Complete compositional spectra of lunar basalts are to be expected, from primitive mare basalts to pure KREEP and to Ti-rich varieties. Comparison of the Gargantuan/Imbrium area with ancient basins in the eastern nearside area suggests that the interplay between the Moon's internal heat engine and the timing of large impacts was a crucial factor in determining the time of tunar volcanism and the chemical composition of the lavas.     

The sources of geogenic arsenic in aquifers at Datong basin,northern China: Constraints from isotopic and geochemical data

Mineralogical, geochemical and zircon U–Pb dating studies were carried out to identify the sources of arsenic in the shallow aquifers of Datong Basin in northern China. A sediment sample from 18 m depth containing 10.3 mg/kg arsenic showed a Zircon U–Pb concordant age of 2528 ± 20 to 271 ± 4 Ma that can be divided into two groups (2528 ± 20 to 1628 ± 21 Ma and 327 ± 4 to 271 ± 4 Ma) and is comparable to that of the sedimentary rocks of Taiyuan (upper Carboniferous) and Shanxi Formation (lower Permian) outcropping to the west of Datong Basin. In contrast, a sediment sample from 22.5 m depth containing 5.7 mg/kg arsenic displayed a Zircon U–Pb concordant age ranging from 2561 ± 21 to 1824 ± 26 Ma that is comparable to that of the Hengshan Complex (Ne-Archaean Precambrian) outcropping to the east of .     

Identification of low frequency waves in the vicinity of the terrestrial bow shock

In this paper, methods for the determination of the wave mode for low frequency waves based on observed differences in phase are reviewed. Examples, using measurements made in the terrestrial foreshock and magnetosheath, are used to illustrate the application of these methods. The use of advance methods such as NARMAX modelling or genetic algorithms to identify the plasma wave mode is also discussed.     

Correction to: Evaluation of a multi-model approach to estimate leaf wetness duration: an essential input for disease alert systems

Theoretical and Applied Climatology -