Modeling and visualizing uncertainties of flood boundary delineation: algorithm for slope and DEM resolution dependencies of 1D hydraulic models

As flood inundation risk maps have become a central piece of information for both urban and risk management planning, also a need to assess the accuracies and uncertainties of these maps has emerged. Most maps show the inundation boundaries as crisp lines on visually appealing maps, whereby many planners and decision makers, among others, automatically believe the boundaries are both accurate and reliable. However, as this study shows, probably all such maps, even those that are based on high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), have immanent uncertainties which can be directly related to both DEM resolution and the steepness of terrain slopes perpendicular to the river flow direction. Based on a number of degenerated DEMs, covering areas along the Eskilstuna River, Sweden, these uncertainties have been quantified into an empirically-derived disparity distance equation, yielding values of distance between true and modeled inundation boundary location. Using the inundation polygon, the DEM, a value representing the DEM resolution, and the desired level of confidence as inputs in a new-developed algorithm that utilizes the disparity distance equation, the slope and DEM dependent uncertainties can be directly visualized on a map. The implications of this strategy should benefit planning and help reduce high costs of floods where infrastructure, etc., have been placed in flood-prone areas without enough consideration of map uncertainties.     

Bridging theory and implementation – Testing an abstract classification system for practical mapping by field survey and 3D aerial photographic interpretation

ABSTRACT

The abstract classification system Nature in Norway (NiN) has detailed ecological definitions of a high number of ecosystem units, but its applicability in practical vegetation mapping is unknown because it was not designed with a specific mapping method in mind. To investigate this further, two methods for mapping – 3D aerial photographic interpretation of colour infrared photos and field survey – were used to map comparable neighbouring sites of 1 km² in Hvaler Municipality, south-eastern Norway. The classification accuracy of each method was evaluated using a consensus classification of 160 randomly distributed plots within the study sites. The results showed an overall classification accuracy of 62.5% for 3D aerial photographic interpretation and 82.5% for field survey. However, the accuracy varied for the ecosystem units mapped. The classification accuracy of ecosystem units in acidic, dry and open terrain was similar for both methods, whereas classification accuracy of calcareous units was highest using field survey. The mapping progress using 3D aerial photographic interpretation was more than two times faster than that of field survey. Based on the results, the authors recommend a method combining 3D aerial photographic interpretation and field survey to achieve effectively accurate mapping in practical applications of the NiN system.     

Crystallographic studies of some olivine-related (Ni,Mg)3(PO4)2 solid solutions

Olivine-related (Ni, Mg)₃(PO₄)₂ solid solutions were prepared and equilibrated at 1070 K. Accurate monoclinic unit cell dimensions were determined from Guinier-Hägg photographic data. Structural refinements based on the X-ray profile-fitting technique after Rietveld were carried out for pure nickel (II) orthophosphate and for three Ni/Mg solid solutions. (Ni_1-x Mg _x )₃(PO₄)₂ phases with 0.40≦x≦0.60 are probably isostructural with Ni₃(PO₄)₂ (P2₁/a) while phases with low magnesium contents (<27 atom % Mg) deviate structurally from Ni₃(PO₄)₂. The results also show that Ni²⁺ is partially ordered at the octahedralM(1) sites, withK _D (Ni, Mg)=4.0±0.2     

Timing and maximum flood level of the Early Holocene glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø outburst flood,Norway

This study discusses the timing and maximum flood level of the Nedre Glomsjø outburst flood, Norway, based on sediment records retrieved from 15 bog and lake basins located close to the purported maximum flooded level. The sediment records in 12 of the basins consist of a distinct light-coloured silty bed that is correlated to the outburst-flood-deposited ‘Romerike Silt Bed’ identified elsewhere in the region. The silt bed is recorded in basins up to a certain elevation and is absent above this level. The new maximum flood level inferred from the basin sediment records exceeds the established landform-induced palaeostage indicators by 5–10 m. The data indicate a higher maximum flood level and larger inundation area than previously suggested and highlight the importance of acquiring a wide range of geological data when reconstructing palaeofloods. Radiocarbon dates of terrestrial macrofossils found stratigraphically above and below the Romerike Silt Bed suggest that the glacial lake Nedre Glomsjø outburst flood occurred between 10.5 and 10.3 cal. ka BP. The new and well-constrained timing of the outburst flood is beneficial for reconstructing regional deglaciation and provides a precise age for the Romerike Silt Bed chronostratigraphical marker, which is of value for studies in SE Norway and adjacent regions.     

Designing Service Architectures for Distributed Geoprocessing: Challenges and Future Directions

In this paper we study the feasibility of using services offered by a Spatial Data Infrastructure as a basis for distributed service oriented geoprocessing. By developing a prototype we demonstrate that a Spatial Data Infrastructure facilitates rapid development of applications that solve typical problems for an existing risk management application. The prototype provides users with a distributed application that enables the assessment of fire damage areas based on land cover data in a given area. The services involved in the application include: Web Feature Services, Web Map Services, a Gazetteer Service, a Catalogue Service, and Geoprocessing Services. We present the architecture of the application and describe details about implementation‐specific issues. We conclude that current OGC specifications provide a sound basis for developing service oriented architectures for geographic applications; however, in particular for geoprocessing applications, we question the feasibility of the use of Web Feature Services as data sources for larger amounts of data and call for further research in this direction.     

Calendar time interpolation of amplitude maps from 4D seismic data

A calendar time interpolation method for 2D seismic amplitude maps, done in two steps, is presented. The contour interpolation part is formulated as a quadratic programming problem, whereas the amplitude value interpolation is based on a conditional probability formulation. The method is applied on field data from the Sleipner CO₂ storage project. The output is a continuous image (movie) of the CO₂ plume. Besides visualization, the output can be used to better couple 4D seismic to other types of data acquired. The interpolation uncertainty increases with the time gap between consecutive seismic surveys and is estimated by leaving a survey out (blind test). Errors from such tests can be used to identify problems in understanding the flow and possibly improve the interpolation scheme for a given case. Field‐life cost of various acquisition systems and repeat frequencies are linked to the time‐lapse interpolation errors. The error in interpolated amplitudes increased by 3%‐4% per year of interpolation gap for the Sleipner case. Interpolation can never fully replace measurements.     

Precise U–Pb baddeleyite ages of mafic dykes and intrusions in southern West Greenland and implications for a possible reconstruction with the Superior craton

The Archaean block of southern Greenland constitutes the core of the North Atlantic craton (NAC) and is host to a large number of Precambrian mafic intrusions and dyke swarms, many of which are regionally extensive but poorly dated. For southern West Greenland, we present a U–Pb zircon age of 2990 ± 13 Ma for the Amikoq mafic–ultramafic layered intrusion (Fiskefjord area) and four baddeleyite U–Pb ages of Precambrian dolerite dykes. Specifically, a dyke located SE of Ameralik Fjord is dated at 2499 ± 2 Ma, similar to a previously reported ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of a dyke in the Kangâmiut area. For these and related intrusions of ca. 2.5 Ga age in southern West Greenland, we propose the name Kilaarsarfik dykes. Three WNW-trending dykes of the MD3 swarm yield ages of 2050 ± 2 Ma, 2041 ± 3 Ma and 2029 ± 3 Ma. A similar U–Pb baddeleyite age of 2045 ± 2 Ma is also presented for a SE-trending dolerite (Iglusuataliksuak dyke) in the Nain Province, the rifted western block of the NAC in Labrador. We speculate that the MD3 dykes and age-equivalent NNE-trending Kangâmiut dykes of southern West Greenland, together with the Iglusuataliksuak dyke (after closure of the Labrador Sea) represent components of a single, areally extensive, radiating swarm that signaled the arrival of a mantle plume centred on what is presently the western margin of the North Atlantic craton. Comparison of the magmatic ‘barcodes’ from the Nain and Greenland portions of the North Atlantic craton with the established record from the north-eastern Superior craton shows matches at 2500 Ma, 2214 Ma, 2050–2030 Ma and 1960–1950 Ma. We use these new age constraints, together with orientations of the dyke swarms, to offer a preliminary reconstruction of the North Atlantic craton near the north-eastern margin of the Superior craton during the latest Archaean and early Palaeoproterozoic, possibly with the Core Zone craton of eastern Canada intervening.     

Long-Term Seasonal Trends in the Prey Community of Delta Smelt (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hypomesus transpacificus</Emphasis>) Within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California

Abiotic factors and species introductions can alter food web timing, disrupt life cycles, and change life history expressions and the temporal scale of population dynamics in zooplankton communities. We examined physical, trophic, and zooplankton community dynamics in the San Francisco Estuary, California, a highly altered Mediterranean climate waterway, across a 43-year dataset (1972–2014). Before invasion by the suspension-feeding overbite clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) in the mid-1980s, the estuary demonstrated monomictic thermal mixing in which winter turbidity and cool temperatures contributed to seasonally low productivity, followed by a late-spring-summer clearing phase with warm water and peak phytoplankton blooms that continued into early winter. Following the clam invasion, we observed a shift in peak phytoplankton bloom timing, with peak productivity now occurring in May compared to June prior to the invasion. Peak abundance of several zooplankton taxa (Eurytemora affinis, Pseudodiaptomus, other calanoids, and non-copepods) also shifted to earlier in the season. We present the first evidence of a shift in the timing of peak abundance for zooplankton species that are key prey items of delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a federally threatened pelagic fish species. These timing shifts may have exacerbated well-documented food limitations of delta smelt due to declines in primary productivity since the invasion of the overbite clam. Future conservation efforts in the estuary should consider measures designed to restore the timing and magnitude of pre-invasion phytoplankton blooms.     

Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500

Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760–1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed.