New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1–36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts.     

Assessment of Marine Clay Improvement Under Reclamation Fills by in-situ Testing Methods

In ground improvement projects with prefabricated vertical drains, the duration of the preloading period is set in advance based on the predetermined time rate of consolidation of the compressible layer. If prediction is accurately done, the required degree of consolidation is met at the pre-determined preloading time. As such, there is a requirement for in-situ tests to be carried out just prior to the removal of surcharge to assess the degree of consolidation of the improved ground. In-situ tests were carried out after 23 months of surcharge loading at the In-Situ Test Site within the Changi East Reclamation Project in the Republic of Singapore. In-situ testing works in this research study comprises the use of field vane shear, piezocone, flat dilatometer and self-boring pressuremeter. The in-situ tests were carried out to determine the shear strength and degree of consolidation of the Singapore marine clay at Changi after 23 months of surcharge loading. The In-Situ Test Site consisted of a Vertical Drain Area as well as an untreated Control Area. Both areas were located adjacent to each other and were surcharged simultaneously to the same level and surcharge left in place for a period of 23 months. Comparison was made between the in-situ test results of the Vertical Drain Area and the untreated Control Area.     

Experiments on silicate melt immiscibility in the system Fe2SiO4–KAlSi3O8–SiO2–CaO–MgO–TiO2–P2O5 and implications for natural magmas

The effect of CaO and MgO, with or without TiO₂ and P₂O₅, on the two-melt field in the simplified system Fe₂SiO₄–KAlSi₃O₈–SiO₂ has been experimentally determined at 1,050°–1,240°C, 400 MPa. Despite the suppressing effect of MgO, CaO, and pressure on silicate melt immiscibility, our experiments show that this process is still viable at mid-crustal pressures when small amounts (0.6–2.0 wt%) of P₂O₅ and TiO₂ are present. Our data stress that the major element partition coefficients between the two melts are highly correlated with the degree of polymerisation (nbo/t) of the SiO₂-rich melt, whatever temperature, pressure, or exact composition. Experimental immiscible melt compositions in natural systems at 0.1 MPa from the literature (lunar and tholeiitic basalts) plot on similar but distinct curves compared to the simplified system. These relations between melt polymerisation and partition coefficients, which hold for a large range of compositions and fO₂, are extended to various volcanic and plutonic rocks. This analysis strengthens the proposal that silicate melt immiscibility can be important in volcanic rocks of various compositions (from tholeiitic basalts to lamprophyres). However, the majority of proposed immiscible compositions in plutonic rocks are at least not coexisting melts, but may have suffered accumulation of early crystallized minerals.     

P–T evolution and reaction textures in retrogressed eclogites from Svetlik, the Moldanubian Zone (Czech Republic)

Summary Lenses and pods of mafic rocks from the Monotonous Unit near Svetlik are characterized by eclogite facies mineral assemblages; however some inclusion patterns (oriented quartz rods in clinopyroxene and cuboids of disordered graphite in garnet) that are usually known from ultra-high pressure rocks were also observed in one sample. Conventional thermobarometry yielded maximum P–T conditions of 2.0–2.5 GPa and 750 °C. Decompression and heating at amphibolite and granulite facies conditions resulted in the formation of at least five distinct types of symplectites. These include symplectitic intergrowth of ilmenite and clinopyroxene after titanite, described here for the first time from the Moldanubian Zone. In addition, symplectites of plagioclase and biotite with accessory amounts of spinel after tabular pseudomorphs (after phengite?) are also reported here. Mass balance relations indicate that symplectites of diopside + plagioclase after omphacite and plagioclase + spinel (sapphirine) after kyanite + garnet, formed by nearly isochemical reactions. All other symplectite-forming reactions were allochemical and were accelerated by the presence of fluid in the primary phases. Preserved zoning pattern in garnet with high compositional gradient in some samples suggests that the rocks were affected briefly by granulite facies overprint.     

A heuristic model for potential geomorphic influences on trophic interactions in streams

Whereas certain linkages between stream channel morphology and stream ecology are fairly well-understood, how geomorphology influences trophic interactions remains largely unknown. As a first step, a simple, heuristic model is developed that couples reach-scale geomorphic morphology with trophic dynamics between vegetation, detritus, herbivores, and predators. Predation is assumed to increase with depth beyond a threshold depth, and herbivory is assumed to decrease with velocity beyond a threshold velocity. Results show that the modeled food chain is sensitive to channel geometry, particularly around the threshold conditions for predators and herbivores. Importantly, geomorphic influences are not isolated to a particular trophic level, but rather are transferred through the food chain via top-down and bottom-up effects. The modeled system is particularly sensitive to changes in the end-members of the food chain: vegetation and predators. Results illustrate that geomorphic disturbances, known to affect a single trophic level (e.g., fish), likely impact multiple trophic levels in the stream ecosystem via trophic interactions. Such impacts at the multiple trophic level are poorly understood. While limited by the lack of empirical long-term data for testing and calibration, this simple model provides a structure for generating hypotheses, collecting targeted data, and assessing the potential impacts of stream disturbance or restoration on entire stream ecosystems. Further, the model illustrates the potential for future coupled stream models to explore spatial and temporal linkages.     

Mongolian gerbils and Daurian pikas responded differently to changes in precipitation in the Inner Mongolian grasslands

Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) and Daurian pikas (Ochotona dauurica) are two key small mammal species in the Inner Mongolian grasslands, China. Mongolian gerbils displayed density-dependent population growth, but the time lag of density dependence was short and within season. The spring–autumn population growth rate was inversely related to population density in Mongolian gerbils of the Erdos desert grasslands. The autumn–spring population growth rate of Mongolian gerbils was inversely related to winter precipitation. Precipitation had stronger effects on the population growth of gerbils during the non-breeding season. The monthly population growth rate of Daurian pikas was positively related to the monthly precipitation and was inversely related to population density in central Inner Mongolia. Daurian pikas select habitats with tall plants. Increased precipitation enhances plant production and increases the height of plants in arid and semi-arid regions. This enhancement of plant height might increase the population growth of Daurian pikas. Mongolian gerbils live in short grasslands. Increased winter precipitation might result in higher winter mortality of Mongolia gerbils, or taller plants might supress gerbil population growth in wet years. Therefore, responses of small mammal species to changes in precipitation depend on the life history of small mammals and changes in vegetation induced by climatic changes.     

Sources of Sediment in Lake Pepin on the Upper Mississippi River in Response to Holocene Climatic Changes

Sediments from Lake Pepin on the Mississippi River, southeastern Minnesota, are used as provenance tracers to assess variations in hydrology and sediment-transport during the middle Holocene. Three rivers contribute sediment to Lake Pepin, and each catchment is characterized by a distinctly different geologic terrain. The geochemical fingerprint for each drainage basin was determined from the elemental composition of heavy minerals in the silt-sized fraction of modern sediment samples. Down-core elemental abundances were compared with these fingerprints by use of a chemical-mass-balance model that apportions sediment to the source areas. We observed a decreased contribution from the Minnesota River during the interval ~6700–5500 ¹⁴C yr BP, which we attribute to decreased discharge of the Minnesota River, likely controlled by a combination of precipitation, snow melt, and groundwater input to the river. This hydrologic condition coincides with the mid-Holocene prairie period recorded by fossil pollen data. The occurrence of this feature in a proxy record for hydrologic variations supports the hypothesis that the mid-Holocene prairie period reflects drier conditions than before or after in midwestern North America.     

Palaeovariations in the East-Asian Monsoon Regime Geochemically Recorded in Varved Sediments of Lake Sihailongwan (Northeast China, Jilin Province). Part 2: a 200-Year Record of Atmospheric Lead-210 Flux Variations and its Palaeoclimatic Implications

Palaeovariations of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb flux in Northeast China (Long Gang area, Jilin province), quantified by high resolution ²¹⁰Pb measurements on seasonally laminated sediments of Lake Sihailongwan are presented on decadal scale. The mean flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb between 1790 and 1970 for the centre of the lake basin is 517 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ with maximum deviations between −23% and +27% of this value. Flux rates above this average were found between 1783 and 1813, around 1836, and between 1860 and 1901. The mean ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux rates derived were clearly lower around 1821, 1908, 1930, and 1953. The ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux reached its minimum of 344 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ during the period 1977–1982. The atmospheric flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb is correlated with the precipitation frequency during the summer monsoon and shows coinciding variability with geochemical proxies that document the groundwater inflow into the lake. Al₂O₃-rich dust of remote provenance scavenged by wet-deposition in the rainy season is the major carrier of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux.