Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ichthyoplankton spatial distribution and its relation with water column stratification in fjords of southern Chile (46°48′–50°09′S) in austral spring 1996 and 2008

The occidental shore of the southern tip of South America is one of the largest estuarine ecosystems around the world. Although demersal finfish fisheries are currently in full exploitation in the area, the fjords south of 47°S have been poorly investigated. Two bio-oceanographic cruises carried out in austral spring 1996 and 2008 between 47°S and 50°09′S were utilized to investigate the spatial distribution of fish eggs and larvae. Small differences in the environmental conditions were identified in the top 200 m of the water column between years (5.3–10.5 °C and 0.7–33.9 units of salinity in October 1996; 6.3–11.5 °C and 1.2–34.2 units of salinity in November 2008). The low salinity surface layer generated a highly stable water column within the fjords (Brunt–Väisälä frequency, N>0.1 rad/s; wave period <60 s), whereas a well-mixed water column occurred in the gulfs and open channels. For both years, the ichthyoplankton analysis showed that early life stages of lightfish Maurolicus parvipinnis were dominant (>75% total eggs and >70% total larvae) and they were collected throughout the area, irrespective of the water column stratification. However, other components of the ichthyoplankton such as Falkland sprat Sprattus fuegensis, rockfish Sebastes oculatus, and hoki Macruronus magellanicus were more abundant and found in a wider range of larval sizes in less stable waters (N<0.1 rad/s). Oceanic taxa such as myctophids (Lampanyctodes hectoris) and gonostomatids (Cyclothone sp.) were collected exclusively in open waters. The October 1996 observation of Engraulis ringens eggs in plankton samples corresponded to the southernmost record of early stages of this fish in the Pacific Ocean. We found a significant negative relationship between the number of larval species and N, and a significant positive relationship between the number of larval species and wave period. Therefore, only some marine fish species are capable to utilize fjords systems as spawning and nursery grounds in areas having high amounts of freshwater discharges and very high vertical stratification during austral spring season.     

Latitudinal patterns of export production recorded in surface sediments of the Chilean Patagonian fjords (41–55°S) as a response to water column productivity

The Chilean Patagonian fjords region (41–56°S) is characterized by highly complex geomorphology and hydrographic conditions, and strong seasonal and latitudinal patterns in precipitation, freshwater discharge, glacier coverage, and light regime; all of these directly affect biological production in the water column. In this study, we compiled published and new information on water column properties (primary production, nutrients) and surface sediment characteristics (biogenic opal, organic carbon, molar C/N, bulk sedimentary δ¹³C_org) from the Chilean Patagonian fjords between 41°S and 55°S, describing herein the latitudinal pattern of water column productivity and its imprint in the underlying sediments. Based on information collected at 188 water column and 118 sediment sampling sites, we grouped the Chilean fjords into four main zones: Inner Sea of Chiloé (41° to ～44°S), Northern Patagonia (44° to ～47°S), Central Patagonia (48–51°S), and Southern Patagonia (Magellan Strait region between 52° and 55°S). Primary production in the Chilean Patagonian fjords was the highest in spring–summer, reflecting the seasonal pattern of water column productivity. A clear north–south latitudinal pattern in primary production was observed, with the highest average spring and summer estimates in the Inner Sea of Chiloé (2427 and 5860 mg C m^?2 d^?1) and Northern Patagonia (1667 and 2616 mg C m^?2 d^?1). This pattern was closely related to the higher availability of nutrients, greater solar radiation, and extended photoperiod during the productive season in these two zones. The lowest spring value was found in Caleta Tortel, Central Patagonia (91 mg C m^?2 d^?1), a site heavily influenced by glacier meltwater and river discharge loaded with glacial sediments. Biogenic opal, an important constituent of the Chilean fjord surface sediments (Si_OPAL ～1–13%), reproduced the general north–south pattern of primary production and was directly related to water column silicic acid concentrations. Surface sediments were also rich in organic carbon content and the highest values corresponded to locations far away from glacier influence, sites within fjords, and/or semi-enclosed and protected basins, reflecting both autochthonous (water column productivity) and allochthonous sources (contribution of terrestrial organic matter from fluvial input to the fjords). A gradient was observed from the more oceanic sites to the fjord heads (west–east) in terms of bulk sedimentary δ¹³C_org and C/N ratios; the more depleted (δ¹³C_org ?26‰) and higher C/N (23) values corresponded to areas close to rivers and glaciers. A comparison of the Chilean Patagonian fjords with other fjord systems in the world revealed high variability in primary production for all fjord systems as well as similar surface sediment geochemistry due to the mixing of marine and terrestrial organic carbon.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Thresholds of intrabed flow and other interactions of turbidity currents with soft muddy substrates

Controlled laboratory experiments reveal that the lower part of turbidity currents has the ability to enter fluid mud substrates, if the bed shear stress is higher than the yield stress of the fluid mud and the density of the turbidity current is higher than the density of the substrate. Upon entering the substrate, the turbidity current either induces mixing between flow‐derived sediment and substrate sediment, or it forms a stable horizontal flow front inside the fluid mud. Such ‘intrabed’ flow is surrounded by plastically deformed mud; otherwise it resembles the front of a ‘bottom‐hugging’ turbidity current. The ‘suprabed’ portion of the turbidity current, i.e. the upper part of the flow that does not enter the substrate, is typically separated from the intrabed flow by a long horizontal layer of mud which originates from the mud that is swept over the top of the intrabed flow and then incorporated into the flow. The intrabed flow and the mixing mechanism are specific types of interaction between turbidity currents and muddy substrates that are part of a larger group of interactions, which also include bypass, deposition, erosion and soft sediment deformation. A classification scheme for these types of interactions is proposed, based on an excess bed shear stress parameter, which includes the difference in the bed shear stress imposed by the flow and the yield stress of the substrate and an excess density parameter, which relies on the density difference between the flow and the substrate. Based on this classification scheme, as well as on the sedimentological properties of the laboratory deposits, an existing facies model for intrabed turbidites is extended to the other types of interaction involving soft muddy substrates. The physical threshold of flow‐substrate mixing versus stable intrabed flow is defined using the gradient Richardson number, and this method is validated successfully with the laboratory data. The gradient Richardson number is also used to verify that stable intrabed flow is possible in natural turbidity currents, and to determine under which conditions intrabed flow is likely to be unstable. It appears that intrabed flow is likely only in natural turbidity currents with flow velocities well below ca 3·5 m s^?1, although a wider range of flows is capable of entering fluid muds. Below this threshold velocity, intrabed flow is stable only at high‐density gradients and low‐velocity gradients across the upper boundary of the turbidity current. Finally, the gradient Richardson number is used as a scaling parameter to set the flow velocity limits of a natural turbidity current that formed an inferred intrabed turbidite in the deep‐marine Aberystwyth Grits Group, West Wales, United Kingdom.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pyrodinium bahamense</Emphasis> Cyst Concentrations in the Sediments of Bioluminescent Mangrove Lagoon,St. Croix,USVI

Mangrove Lagoon, located on the island of St. Croix, US Virgin Islands (USVI), is one of few actively bioluminescent lagoons in a location experiencing significant anthropogenic impacts. The bioluminescence is due to an abundance of the dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense in the water column. We recovered surface sediments and sediment cores from Mangrove Lagoon to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal variability of P. bahamense cysts in this system. Surface sediment P. bahamense cyst concentrations ranged from 0 to 466 cysts g^?1 dry sediment, with higher abundances associated with elevated surface water nutrient concentrations and a mixed terrestrial–marine organic matter source regime. In combination with available bioassay data, we hypothesize that phytoplankton utilize nutrients rapidly and subsequent decay of organic matter makes nutrients available for dinoflagellates at the sediment–water interface in the eastern and northern quadrants of the lagoon. However, the nutrients are rapidly exhausted during counterclockwise lagoon circulation resulting in the decline of primary productivity and dinoflagellate abundance in the western quadrants. Downcore profiles suggest that P. bahamense blooms have been occurring for decades, declining in recent years. No cysts were present in sediments predating dredging activities of the 1960s that created Mangrove Lagoon. Recent reductions in cyst abundance may be the result of limited primary productivity caused by restricted water exchange with Salt River Bay due to shallowing of a sill at the mouth of the lagoon. This research highlights the need for more comprehensive geochemical and fossil analyses to better understand long-term ecological variability and inform conservation efforts of these unique habitats.