Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Constraining the origin and evolution of confined turbidite systems: southern Cretan margin,Eastern Mediterranean Sea (34°30–36°N)

Bathymetric, 9.5-kHz long-range sidescan sonar (OKEAN), seismic reflection and sediment-core data are used in the analysis of two tectonic troughs south of Crete, Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Here, up to 1.2 s two-way travel time (TWTT) of strata have accumulated since the Middle Miocene in association with extension in the South Aegean region. The study area comprises >100-km- long by >25-km-wide basins filled by sediments subdivided into two seismic units: (1) an upper Unit 1 deposited in sub-basins which follow the present-day configuration of the southern Cretan margin; (2) a basal Unit 2, more than 500 ms (TWTT) thick, accumulated in deeper half-graben/grabens distinct from the present-day depocentres. Both units overlap a locally stratified Unit 3 comprising the pre-Neogene core complex of Crete and Gavdos. In this work, the interpreted seismic units are correlated with the onshore stratigraphy, demonstrating that denudation processes occurring on Crete and Gavdos in response to major tectonic events have been responsible for high sedimentation rates along the proximal southern Cretan margin. Consequently, topographically confined sedimentary units have been deposited south of Crete in the last 12 Ma, including turbidites and other mass-flow deposits fed by evolving transverse and axial channel systems. Surface processes controlling facies distribution include the direct inflow of sediment from alluvial-fan systems and incising mountain rivers onto the Cretan slope, where significant sediment instability processes occur at present. In this setting, seismic profiles reveal eight different types of stratigraphic contacts on basin-margin highs, and basinal areas show evidence of halokinesis and/or fluid escape. The acquired data also show that significant changes to the margin’s configuration occurred in association with the post-Alpine tectonic and eustatic episodes affecting the Eastern Mediterranean.     

海洋生物-光学算法研究──南黄海叶绿素浓度的估算

根据１９９５年９月中日合作南黄海现场观测资料，对南黄海生物－光学算法进行研究。首先对南黄海现场多光谱反射比数据进行因子分析，解反射比协方差矩阵的特征问题；解出特征值和对应的特征向量，求出主因子，然后建立叶绿素α对主因子的多元线性回归方程，并对算法进行回报和预报检验。计算结果表明，该算法具有较高精度，同时也显示出天气条件对估算精度产生较大影响。     

西沙群岛海产蓝藻的研究 Ⅴ

本文继续报道我国西沙群岛海产色球藻目 Chroococcales 的十种蓝藻,隶于三科六属，有八种是我国海产蓝藻的新记录,它们是:铜锈微囊藻 Microcystis aeruginosa Kuetzing,小形色球藻 Chroococcus minor ( Kuetzing) Naegeli,湖沼色球藻盐泽变种 C. limneticus Lemm.var. subsalsus Lemm,易变色球藻 C.varius A.Braun,膜状色球藻C. membraninus ( Meneghini) Naegeli,圆胞束球藻 Gomphasphaeria aponina Kuetzing,附钙管鞘藻 Hormathonema epilithicum Ercegovic 和透明拟丝藻 Johannesbaptistia pellucida ( Dickie) Taylor at Drouet。其中透明拟丝藻形态特征独特,这对于蓝藻类的研究,特别是研究从色球藻目进化到丝状蓝藻类的系统演化具有重要价值,早已为藻类学家们所重视。该种也是我国海产蓝藻属的新记录。 迄今为止,藻类学家们一致认为色球藻目是蓝藻门 Cyanophyta 中最原始、最低级的类群,其植物体最简单,大都是单细胞或简单的群体,而且都十分微小,常被肥厚的胶质鞘所包埋,这就使该目蓝藻能适应复杂的自然环境。所以,在地质学和古生物学的研究中它已引起许多学者的注意。有关该目海产种类的分类研究,我国仅有少数报道,这方面的工作还有待深入。     

Interfacial geochemistry of barium in suspension and sediment from Zhujiang Estuary

Chemical forms of Ba are determined in samples of suspension and sediment from the Zhujiang Estuary. Their interfacial geochemical processes are discussed. Total suspended Ba content is between 2. 4 and 40. 4 μg/L, and mostly exists in the crystalline form (43. 5%), secondly in the Fe-Mn oxidative form (23.1%). Percentages of organic, carbonate and exchangeable forms are 14. 8%, 11. l%and 7.4%, respectively. Total content of Ba in the sediment is between 158. 6 and 48. 0 ug/g. Percentages of crystalline form, Fe-Mn oxidative form and carbonate form are 78. 4% ,13. 5%and 8. 2%, respectively. Organic and exchangeable forms are not detected. The study on the mechanism of interfacial movement suggests that the salinity range of 10 is the turning point for the varied distribution of Ba. The subsidence of crystalline form affects the decrease of Ba content in suspension. The decrease mostly takes place in the salinity range lower than 10, which corresponds to the high value of Ba content in the sediment. The     

Mechanisms controlling the temporal variation of the sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean

This paper examines the mechanism controlling the short time-scale variation of sea ice cover over the Southern Ocean. Sea ice concentration and ice velocity datasets derived from images of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are employed to reveal this mechanism. The contribution of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the change in ice edge location is examined by comparing the meridional velocity of ice edge displacement and sea ice drift. In the winter expansion phase, the thermodynamic process of new ice production off the ice edge plays an important role in daily advances of ice cover, whereas daily retreats are mostly due to southward ice drift. On the other hand, both advance and retreat of ice edges in the spring contraction phase are mostly caused by the dynamic process of the ice drift. Based on the above mechanism and the linear relation between the degree of ice production at the ice edge and northward wind speed, the seasonal advance of ice cover can be roughly reproduced using the meridional velocity of ice drift at the ice edge.     

The Levant Slumps and the Phoenician Structures: collapse features along the continental margin of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea

Two distinct series of slumps deform the upper part of the sedimentary sequence along the continental margin of the Levant. One series is found along the base of the continental slope, where it overlies the disrupted eastern edge of the Messinian evaporites. The second series of slumps transects the continental margin from the shelf break to the Levant Basin. It seemed that the two series were triggered by two unrelated, though contemporaneous, processes. The shore-parallel slumps were initiated by basinwards flow of the Messinian salt, that carried along the overlying Plio-Quaternary sediments. Seawater that percolated along the detachment faults dissolved the underlying salt to form distinctly disrupted structures. The slope-normal slumps are located on top of large canyons that cut into the pre-Messinian sedimentary rocks. A layer of salt is found in the canyons, and the Plio-Quaternary sediments were deposited on that layer. The slumps are bounded by large, NW-trending faults where post-Messinian faulted offset was measured. We presume that the flow of the salt in the canyons also drives the slope-normal slumps. Thus thin-skinned halokynetic processes generated the composite post-Tortonian structural patterns of the Levant margin. The Phoenician Structures are a prime example of the collapse of a distal continental margin due to the dissolution of a massive salt layer.     

海水分光反射率与叶绿素浓度的相关分析

通过对东京湾两年度不同季节海水分光反射率与叶绿素浓度进行统计分析，结果表明，叶绿素浓度Ｃ与两谱段分光反射率之比Ｒｗ（λｊ）／Ｒｗ（λｊ）具有幂函关系Ｃ＝Ａ［Ｒｗ（λｊ）／Ｒｗ（λｊ）Ｂ。两者的对数显示出较好的线性关系，即ｌｏｇＣ＝ｌｏｇＡ＋Ｂｌｏｇ［Ｒｗ（λｊ）／Ｒｗ（λｊ）］。负相关系数达０．９９。相关方程之一为Ｃ＝３．３２９［Ｒｗ（５２０）／Ｒｗ（５５０）］－１．３８４（１９８７年６月初）．在梅雨季节之后，相关方程为Ｃ＝１２．６８［Ｒｗ（５２０）／Ｒｗ（５５０）］－２．０１０（１９８８年８月）。这表明了海湾或混浊的沿岸水质，在叶绿素浓度算法中，统计参数Ａ和Ｂ的确立，要基于不同季节不同水质的现场观测资料。     

海带雌性原生质体的分离与培养

于1993年1月 - 1993年4月，为了制备遗传性纯一的基因工程受体，用酶法从海带雌配子体单性生殖系分离雌性单倍体原生质体。从皱纹盘鲍消化腺及消化器官提取出鲍酶，在25°C下、1％（W／V）的鲍酶与2％（W／V）的纤维素酶（Onozuka R－10）合用能有效解离单细胞和原生质体。海带雌性原生质体经2d培养再生了细胞壁。     

海洋生物-光学算法研究──南黄海叶绿素浓度的估算

根据1995年9月中日合作南黄海现场观测资料，对南黄海生物一光学算法进行研究。首先对南黄海现场多光谱反射比数据进行因子分析，解反射比协方差矩阵的特征问题；解出特征值和对应的特征向量，求出主因子，然后建立叶绿素a浓度对主因子的多元线性回归方程，并对算法进行回报和预报检验。计算结果表明，该算法具有较高精度，同时也显示出天气条件对估算精度产生较大影响。