南昌市城区暴雨积水的数值模拟

论述了南昌市城市暴雨积水仿真系统的数学原理和开发成果,并应用实况降水对该系统的模拟精度进行测试。结果表明:大多数(62.6%)模拟计算结果的绝对误差在10 cm以内,只有极少数(2.4%)实际积水与模拟结果的误差超过30 cm。暴雨积水等级试验结果表明,中度以上暴雨积水地段的预报准确率达98%,轻度积水和无积水地段的预报准确率达92%。总体来看,暴雨积水趋势(等级)预报基本准确,定量(积水深度)预报有误差,平均相对误差为6%,模型的预测结果与实况基本相符。通过人工给定不同强度的雨量来模拟南昌市两个重点积水地段的积水过程,得到结论:当降水强度达到20 mm/h时,开始产生积水,降水强度超过30 mm/h时将产生严重积水;两个积水点因排水条件不一样,退水时间差异较大。排水条件差的地段,中—大雨需要15 h退完,暴雨需要24 h以上才能退完;在不同降水强度和排水条件下,最大积水深度出现的时间有明显区别;在暴雨情况下,绝大部分(76%)积水点的最大积水深度出现在2~3 h内。此外,讨论了模拟误差产生的原因。     

Wind erosion climatic erosivity

A physically based wind-erosion climatic factor has been derived: $$CE = \rho \int {[u^2 } - (u_T^2 + \gamma ^l /\rho a^2 )]^{3/2} f(u)du$$ where ? is the air density, a is a constant made up of other constants (von Karman, height of wind speed observation, roughness parameter), u is the horizontal wind speed, u _T is threshold wind speed, f(u) u) is a wind speed probability density function, and γ is the cohesive resistance caused by water on the soil particles. Cohesive resistance is proportional to the square of water content relative to water content at ?1500 J kg^?1. Relative water content is approximated from the Budyko dryness ratio and the Thornthwaite PE index with similar results. CE is calculable from wind speed and other generally available meteorological data, and is usable in the wind erosion equation without some of the limitations of a previously used wind erosion climatic factor.     

Some characteristics of ozone profiles above Hong Kong

Summary Analysis of ozonesonde data shows that in the lower troposphere above Hong Kong, there is a relative maximum with respect to height in all seasons except winter. In the upper troposphere, there is with respect to height a relative minimum in the seasonally averaged ozone mixing ratio in winter. Ozone mixing ratios in the upper troposphere in winter and spring can be significantly enhanced by stratospheric intrusions associated with the passage of cold fronts and upper cut-off lows.For Hong Kong, the seasonally averaged total ozone has the highest value in spring, and the lowest in winter. The seasonally averaged total tropospheric ozone also has the highest value in spring, but the lowest in summer. In a relative sense, total tropospheric ozone contributes most to the total ozone in spring and the least in summer.The phase of the total ozone anomaly above Hong Kong is influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the positive anomaly associated with the easterly phase of QBO, and the negative anomaly the westerly phase.     

Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia

Fine-resolution regional climate simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) are performed over the eastern Australian region. The horizontal resolution (30 km) is fine enough that a good climatological simulation of observed tropical cyclone formation is obtained using the observed tropical cyclone lower wind speed threshold (17 m s^–1). This simulation is performed without the insertion of artificial vortices (bogussing). The simulated occurrence of cyclones, measured in numbers of days of cyclone activity, is slightly greater than observed. While the model-simulated distribution of central pressures resembles that observed, simulated wind speeds are generally rather lower, due to weaker than observed pressure gradients close to the centres of the simulated storms. Simulations of the effect of climate change are performed. Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, simulated numbers of TCs do not change very much compared with those simulated for the current climate, nor do regions of occurrence. There is a 56% increase in the number of simulated storms with maximum winds greater than 30 m s^–1 (alternatively, a 26% increase in the number of storms with central pressures less than 970 hPa). In addition, there is an increase in the number of intense storms simulated south of 30°S. This increase in simulated maximum storm intensity is consistent with previous studies of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone wind speeds.     

Local amplification of deep mining induced vibrations Part 1: Experimental evidence for site effects in a coal basin

The work presented in this paper lies under the scope of a research program aiming to assess the impact of deep coal mining induced vibrations on the surface constructions. The concerned section of the program is dedicated to the study of geological site effects and their influence on the mining induced vibrations for which the experimental investigations have been carried out and developed in this paper (Part 1). The empirical methods based on H/V spectral ratios have been applied on data sets provided from mining induced vibrations recorded within private residences above the deep coalmine as well as complementary measurements of ambient noise. The results evidence an amplified zone in the southern part of the Gardanne basin where drilling data confirmed the presence of particularly fractured and soft stratigraphic units. This joint analysis of induced seismicity and ambient noise enabled to validate the method based on H/V ratios applied to the mining context.     

Model of the Equatorial Anomaly in foF2 Based on Interkosmos-19 Data for High Solar Activity

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - An empirical model of the equatorial anomaly in the critical frequency foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer is constructed. The model is based on Interkosmos-19 satellite...     

Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections

We analyze a mini ensemble of regional climate projections over the CORDEX Africa domain carried out with RegCM4 model as part of the Phase I CREMA experiment (Giorgi 2013). RegCM4 is driven by the HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM global models for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration scenarios. The focus of the analysis is on seasonal and intraseasonal monsoon characteristics. We find two prominent change signals. Over West Africa and the Sahel MPI produces a forward shift in the monsoon season in line with previous findings, and this shift is also simulated by the RegCM4. Furthermore, the regional model produces a widespread decrease of monsoon precipitation (when driven by both MPI and HadGEM) associated with decreased easterly wave activity in the 6–9 days regime and with soil moisture-precipitation interactions. South of the equator we find an extension of the dry season with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the monsoon and a narrowing and strengthening of the ITCZ precipitation band. This signal is consistent in all global and regional model projections, although with different spatial detail. We plan to enlarge this mini-ensemble as a further contribution to the CORDEX project to better assess the robustness of the signals found in this paper.     

Joint Measurements of Flare Flux Densities at 210 – 212 GHz by Two Different Radio Telescopes

Multiple-beam observations of solar flares at submillimeter wavelengths need detection with at least four beams to derive the flux density $\mbox{$F$} $ of the emitting source, its size, and centroid position. When this condition is not fulfilled, the assumptions on the location and/or size of the emitting source have to be made in order to compute $\mbox{$F$}$ . Otherwise, only a flux density range $\mbox{$\Delta F$}$ can be estimated. We report on simultaneous flare observations at 212 and 210 GHz obtained by the Solar Submillimeter Telescope (SST) and the Bernese Multibeam Radiometer for Kosma (BEMRAK), respectively, during two solar events on 28 October 2003. For both events, BEMRAK utilized four beam information to calculate the source flux density F ₂₁₀, its size and position. On the other hand, the SST observed the events with only one beam, at low solar elevation angles and during high atmospheric attenuation. Therefore, because of these poor observing conditions at 212 GHz, only a flux density range ΔF ₂₁₂ could be estimated. The results show that ΔF ₂₁₂ is within a factor of 2.5 of the flux density F ₂₁₀. This factor can be significantly reduced (e.g. 1.4 for one of the studied events) by an appropriate choice of the 212 GHz source position using flare observations at other wavelengths. By adopting the position and size of the 210 GHz source measured by BEMRAK, the flux density at 212 GHz, F _212b, is comparable to F ₂₁₀ within the uncertainties, as expected. Therefore our findings indicate that even during poor observing conditions, the SST can provide an acceptable estimate of the flux density at 212 GHz. This is a remarkable fact since the SST and BEMRAK use quite different procedures for calibration and flux density determination. We also show that the necessary assumptions made on the size of the emitting source at 212 GHz in order to estimate its flux density are not critical, and therefore do not affect the conclusions of previous studies at this frequency.     

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes

Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.