城市时空大数据驱动的新型冠状病毒传播风险评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

2019年末至2020年初新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的快速传播对中国与世界的公共卫生带来巨大的挑战。如何科学合理地评估新型冠状病毒传播风险并制定相应防疫管控措施,是各国所面临的难题,也是科学防治与精准施策的重要依据之一。作为我国最重要的城市群之一,粤港澳大湾区受本次新型冠状病毒影响较大,且春节假期后大量的复工回流人口进一步带来潜在的传播风险。本文面向粤港澳大湾区新型冠状病毒传播风险评估的紧迫需求,结合大湾区多源城市时空大数据与流行病动力学模型,构建适宜大湾区的改进模型,并对新型冠状病毒在大湾区的传播风险和各类防疫管控措施效果进行评估与模拟。首先,引入动态复工回流人口和聚集热点改进现有动力学模型(SEIR模型),对现有动力学模型在不同空间评估单元的传播参数进行纠偏,加强模型在大湾区评估中的适宜性;利用手机信令等多源城市大数据,构建更精细化的人口、疾病流动矩阵和相应的传染病动力学模型,以满足各级防疫部门精细化(如村(社区)级)风险评估的迫切需求。模拟结果表明,相对经典SEIR模型,改进模型在大湾区的传播风险评估中具有更强的适宜性;大湾区高强度的人口流动为病毒的传播带来较高的风险;防疫部门所采取各类管控措施对病毒在大湾区的传播具有较强的抑制作用。     

Differences of granitic weathering at the northern and southern feet of Dabie Mountains,Central China: Implication for tectonic and climatic environments

Previous studies of weathering generally started with geochemistry[1—8] and mineralogy[9—12], and have been focused on chemical weathering rates[1—3], removability-enrichment of elements[3—6] during chemical weathering, and the age of weathering profi…     

Relationship between structures of substituted indolic compounds and their degradation by marine anaerobic microorganisms

Degradation of selected indolic compounds including indole, 1-methylindole, 2-methylindole, and 3-methylindole was assessed under methanogenic and sulfate-reducing conditions using the serum-bottle anaerobic technique and marine sediment from Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong as an inoculum. Our results showed that indole degradation was achieved in 28 days by a methanogenic consortium and 35 days by a sulfate-reducing consortium. During degradation under both conditions, two intermediates were isolated, purified and identified as oxindole and isatin (indole-2,3-dione) suggesting that both methanogenic and sulfate-reducing bacteria use an identical degradation pathway. Degradation processes followed two steps of oxidation accomplished by hydroxylation and then dehydrogenation at 2- and then 3-position sequentially prior to the cleavage of the pyrrole ring between 2- and 3-positions. However, none of 1-methylindole or 2-methylindole was degraded under any conditions. 3-Methylindole (3-methyl-1H-indole, skatole) was transformed under methanogenic conditions and mineralized only under sulfate-reducing conditions. It is clear that methyl substitution on 1- or 2-position inhibits the initial attack by hydroxylation enzymes making them more persistent in the environment and posing longer toxic impact.     

影响青藏高原植被生理过程与大气C02浓度及气候变化的相互作用

利用一陆面过程模式,初步模拟研究了青藏高原夏季风盛行期植被生理过程与大气CO2浓度及气候变化的相互作用.结果表明,气候以及大气CO2浓度变化对青藏高原地区的植被生理过程有较明显的影响,高温、高湿和高CO2浓度将加强高原植被的光合作用和呼吸作用,有利于植被生长.高原植被也可通过生理过程,产生净C02吸收,降低大气C02含量,起到调整温室效应的作用,从而影响全球气候变化;当气温升高、大气C02增加时,这种作用更加有效.青藏高原地区大气C02浓度加倍,对高原地区气候的直接影响不明显.植被的存在也会影响区域气候变化,并可通过改变高原热源,进而影响高原及其周边地区气候变化.文中还归纳出了植被生理与气候相互作用的简单概念模型.     

Diffusive wave solutions for open channel flows with uniform and concentrated lateral inflow

The diffusive wave equation with inhomogeneous terms representing hydraulics with uniform or concentrated lateral inflow into a river is theoretically investigated in the current paper. All the solutions have been systematically expressed in a unified form in terms of response function or so called K-function. The integration of K-function obtained by using Laplace transform becomes S-function, which is examined in detail to improve the understanding of flood routing characters. The backwater effects usually resulting in the discharge reductions and water surface elevations upstream due to both the downstream boundary and lateral inflow are analyzed. With a pulse discharge in upstream boundary inflow, downstream boundary outflow and lateral inflow respectively, hydrographs of a channel are routed by using the S-functions. Moreover, the comparisons of hydrographs in infinite, semi-infinite and finite channels are pursued to exhibit the different backwater effects due to a concentrated lateral inflow for various channel types.     

两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋次表层海温异常的演变特征

基于美国马里兰大学提供的海洋同化(SODA)月平均资料,用个例和合成分析方法,剖析了两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋海温异常演变特征。结果指出,东部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源来自赤道西太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送,至赤道东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。东部型ENSO冷暖事件互为初始场,在形成某一位相的ENSO事件的过程中也同时为相反位相的ENSO事件准备条件。中部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源出现在赤道中太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送至赤道中东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。中部型ENSO事件多在前次事件减弱中断后出现。     

多级格网时空索引

在时空数据库中,地理实体模型包括地理对象空间信息和时态信息。为了快速查询实体的空间和时间信息,这就需要一个高效的时空索引机制。本文在分析和参考目前几种时空索引方法的基础上提出了一种新的时空索引方法———多级格网时空索引,并介绍了多级格网时空索引的算法。     

关于新、旧北京1954坐标系统的转换与应用

国土部门在北京1954坐标系下,已完成大多数城镇的初始调查工作,并发放了相应的土地证等图件资料。而现在又需要在C级GPS网布设基础控制测量工作,这就产生了它们的坐标转换工作。这里举某市两种坐标转换和比较的实例,以供参考。     

宝鸡市2005-09-20强对流暴雨分析

利用M ICAPS系统资料和卫星云图及多普勒雷达资料对2005-09-20宝鸡强对流暴雨进行分析,结果表明此次强降水与副高外围暖湿气流和东西两路冷空气形成的锢囚锋共同影响有关。低空急流为暴雨提供了丰沛的水汽和位势不稳定能量;横槽转竖和高原槽的合并加深,有利于引导冷空气南下,锋区加强。物理量场表现出水汽强辐合;高层辐散和低层辐合及强烈的上升运动;等sθe线密集区蕴藏着可供中尺度对流发展所必需的不稳定能量。冷、暖空气共同作用激发出中-α尺度对流云团;雷达图上对应有强度≥35 dB z的中尺度对流回波带。     

多尺度空间对象拓扑相似关系的表达与计算

研究了空间数据多尺度表达中,在进行模型综合时空间对象拓扑关系的表达、变化和相似性。基于空间对象之间拓扑关系的概念邻域,给出了空间对象拓扑关系相似性的定义以及在数字景观模型中拓扑关系相似性的度量方法,为空间数据的多尺度表达提供了拓扑关系分析和评价手段。