Stochastic model for hepatitis B virus infection through maternal (vertical) and environmental (horizontal) transmission with applications to basic reproductive number estimation and economic appraisal of preventive strategies

Elucidating the temporal natural history of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provides not only useful information for assessing the spread of HBV infection but also a bedrock for economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategies (such as universal vaccination). HBV transmissions are transmitted through the maternal (vertical) route and environmental (horizontal) route. As the infection process from susceptible to active virus replication and finally to recovery state or to carrier state through both routes is not directly observable, mathematical models were therefore proposed to quantitatively elucidate the dynamic process of HBV infection with time. We began with a simple two-state model (from susceptible to infection) and further developed a five-state (including susceptible, latent phase, active viral replication, carrier, and recovery states) stochastic process to quantify the dynamics of HBV infection, making allowances for a mixed proportion of vertical and horizontal transmissions. The data used in the estimation, which were collected before implementation of a policy for universal HBV vaccination, were derived from several previous serum prevalence studies, including both low (northern) and high (southern) HBV prevalence areas, in Taiwan. The parameters obtained from stochastic models were converted to compute the basic reproductive number (R₀) in each study to indicate the extent of the spread of HBV infection. By linking the temporal natural history of HBV infection with the previously established Markov process for the sequelae of HBV infection (chronic hepatitis infection, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocelluar carcinoma), we developed a Markov cycle decision tree to evaluate the two population-based preventive strategies related to vaccination and maternal lamivudine use with a cost-effectiveness analysis. In the five-state model, horizontal transmission was found to contribute more to HBV infection than vertical transmission in the northern area (59 vs. 41 %), whereas vertical transmission was more likely than horizontal transmission in the southern area (80 vs. 20 %). After considering the parameters of the two transmission routes, annual infection rate (person-years) for susceptible subjects was higher in the northern area (0.35) than the southern area (0.011). A similar finding was noted for annual rate of the transition from the latent period to active viral replications (1.12 in the northern area and 0.072 in the southern area). Annual rate of the conversion from active viral replication to the carrier state was higher in the southern area (0.184) than the northern area (0.119). Annual recovery rates were 0.014 in the northern area and 0.024 in the southern area for the carrier and 0.048 and 0.088 for transient viremia. The R₀ at age 30 using the parameters obtained from the five-state stochastic model was estimated as 4.88 in the northern and 7.03 in the southern area. Regarding the findings of economic appraisal, both preventive strategies were cost-saving, yielding the negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, compared with the baseline group (no intervention), regardless of areas. The preventive strategies in the southern area were more cost-saving than those in the northern area. The consolidation of elucidating the temporal natural history of HBV infection, estimating basic reproductive number, and conducting an economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategy can aid health policy-makers in designing effective preventive strategies in other countries worldwide where HBV is still prevalent. However, the empirical findings on transmission routes and the temporal evolution of HBV infection varying with areas should be considered with great caution as only two studies were modeled.     

Transverse structure of subtidal flow in a weakly stratified subtropical tidal inlet

The transverse structure of exchange flows and lateral flows as well as their relationship to the subtidal variability are investigated in a subtropical inlet, Ponce de Leon Inlet, Florida. Two surveys were executed during different phases of the tidal month to determine the spatial structure of subtidal exchange flows. Data from fixed moorings were used to depict the temporal variability of the spatial structure established in the surveys. The data suggested a tidally rectified pattern of net outflow in the channel and inflow over shoals with a negligible influence of streamwise baroclinic pressure gradients on the dynamics and slight modifications due to the wind. Onshore winds strengthened net inflows but weakened net outflows, rarely reversing them, while offshore winds increased net outflows and weakened net inflows. Curvature effects were found to be important in modifying secondary circulations. Slight modifications to the secondary flows were also caused by stream-normal baroclinicity during one survey. Most important, the intensity of the exchange flows was modulated by tides, with the largest exchange flows developing in response to the strongest tidal rectification of spring tides.     

Creating the taste of place in the United States: can we learn from the French?

In the United States, there is a growing awareness of the implications of our globalized food system, a system that incorporates all manner of agriculture, food distribution, food processing and transformation, and consumption. The ever increasing distance between where our food is produced and where it is consumed has helped spur a movement to develop a system of place based foods. Right now multiple models are in play, including farmers markets, community supported agriculture, and the localvore movement. This article will do a close examination of another model from France, the French system of appellation d’origine contrôlée (AOC); nationally regulated by the French Ministry of Agriculture it supports and protects foods and drinks with unique links to particular territories. The AOC system is based on geographically distinct and historically specific food and drink found throughout France. By closely examining one AOC product—Comté cheese produced in the rural agricultural region in Jura—the authors consider the possibilities for an AOC-style system in the United States.     

Understanding U.S. public support for domestic climate change policies

In the U.S., public support for federal, state and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) continues to be a crucial element of the political viability of these proposals. We present a detailed analysis of the reasons given by the general public of Michigan and Virginia for supporting or rejecting a number of policies that could be implemented to meet GHG reductions. The data allow us to analyze the relationships between reasons provided by respondents, social psychological and demographic characteristics, and policy support. This analysis can provide policymakers pragmatic guidance in (1) developing tactics to engage the public that build on current concerns about climate change policies and (2) crafting and communicating policies that garner support from various segments of the public. This analysis also raises theoretical questions regarding the relationship between public discourse on environmental issues and the formation of public policy support. We suggest that future efforts to understand the U.S. dynamics of public support for climate change policies could benefit from understanding the public discursive and the reasoning processes that underlie public opinion formation.     

Infrastructure hazard resilience trends: an analysis of 25 years of research

Hazard research has made significant strides over the last several decades, answering critical questions surrounding vulnerability and recovery. Recently, resilience has come to the forefront of scholarly debates and practitioner strategies, yet there remain challenges implementing resilience in practice, the result of a complex web of research that spread across numerous fields of study. As a result, there is a need to analyze and reflect on the current state of resilience literature. We reviewed 241 journal articles from the Web of Science and Engineering Village databases from 1990 to 2015 to analyze research trends in geographic location of studies, methods employed, units of analysis, and resilience dimensions studied, as well as correlations between each of these categories. The majority of the studies analyzed were conducted in North America, used quantitative methods, focused on infrastructure and community units of analysis, and studied governance, infrastructure, and economic dimensions of resilience. This analysis points to the need to: (1) conduct studies in developing country contexts, where resilience is particularly important; (2) employ mixed-methods for additional depth to quantitative studies; (3) connect units of analysis, such as infrastructure and community; and (4) expand on the measurement and study of environmental and social dimensions of resilience.     

Micro-spectroscopic investigation of selenium-bearing minerals from the Western US Phosphate Resource Area

Mining activities in the US Western Phosphate Resource Area (WPRA) have released Se into the environment. Selenium has several different oxidation states and species, each having varying degrees of solubility, reactivity, and bioavailability. In this study we are investigating the speciation of Se in mine-waste rocks. Selenium speciation was determined using bulk and micro-x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), as well as micro-x-ray fluorescence mapping. Rocks used for bulk-XAS were ground into fine powders. Shale used for micro-XAS was broken along depositional planes to expose unweathered surfaces. The near edge region of the XAS spectra (XANES) for the bulk rock samples revealed multiple oxidation states, with peaks indicative of Se(-II), Se(IV), and Se(+VI) species. Micro-XANES analysis of the shale indicated that three unique Se-bearing species were present. Using the XANES data together with ab initio fitting of the extended x-ray absorption fine structure region of the micro-XAS data (micro-EXAFS) the three Se-bearing species were identified as dzharkenite, a di-selenide carbon compound, and Se-substituted pyrite. Results from this research will allow for a better understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of Se in the WPRA.     

Population Growth, Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Southwestern United States

PROBLEM STATEMENT: In a simple economic model, water scarcity arises as a result of an imbalance between the supply of and demand for water sources. Distribution in this setting is the source of numerous conflicts globally. APPROACH: Already, the Southwestern United States (US) suffers from annual drought and long-standing feud over natural water resources. RESULTS: Population growth in the Southwestern United States along with the continued effects of climate change (natural and anthropogenic) predicts a perpetual decline in natural water sources, such as smaller snowpacks, in the coming years. As the increasing number of communities across multiple US states that subsist off of natural water supplies face water shortages with increasing severity, further water conflict will emerge. Such conflicts become especially protracted when the diversion of water from a source of benefit to one community negatively impacts nearby communities of humans and economically vital ecosystems (e.g., marshlands or tributaries). CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS: The ensuing politics and health effects of these diversions can be complicated and future water policies both domestically and internationally are lacking. To draw attention to and stimulate discussion around the lacking policy discussion domestically, herein we document existing and emerging consequences of watery scarcity in the Southwestern United States and briefly outline past and potential future policy responses.     

An experimental study of Ti and Zr partitioning among zircon, rutile, and granitic melt

In order to evaluate the effect of trace and minor elements (e.g., P, Y, and the REEs) on the high-temperature solubility of Ti in zircon (zrc), we conducted 31 experiments on a series of synthetic and natural granitic compositions [enriched in TiO₂ and ZrO₂; Al/(Na + K) molar ~1.2] at a pressure of 10 kbar and temperatures of ~1,400 to 1,200 °C. Thirty of the experiments produced zircon-saturated glasses, of which 22 are also saturated in rutile (rt). In seven experiments, quenched glasses coexist with quartz (qtz). SiO₂ contents of the quenched liquids range from 68.5 to 82.3 wt% (volatile free), and water concentrations are 0.4–7.0 wt%. TiO₂ contents of the rutile-saturated quenched melts are positively correlated with run temperature. Glass ZrO₂ concentrations (0.2–1.2 wt%; volatile free) also show a broad positive correlation with run temperature and, at a given T, are strongly correlated with the parameter (Na + K + 2Ca)/(Si·Al) (all in cation fractions). Mole fraction of ZrO₂ in rutile $ \left( {\mathop X\nolimits_{{{\text{ZrO}}_{ 2} }}^{\text{rt}} } \right) $ in the quartz-saturated runs coupled with other 10-kbar qtz-saturated experimental data from the literature (total temperature range of ~1,400 to 675 °C) yields the following temperature-dependent expression: $ {\text{ln}}\left( {\mathop X\nolimits_{{{\text{ZrO}}_{ 2} }}^{\text{rt}} } \right) + {\text{ln}}\left( {a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} } \right) = 2.638(149) - 9969(190)/T({\text{K}}) $ , where silica activity $ a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} $ in either the coexisting silica polymorph or a silica-undersaturated melt is referenced to α-quartz at the P and T of each experiment and the best-fit coefficients and their uncertainties (values in parentheses) reflect uncertainties in T and $ \mathop X\nolimits_{{{\text{ZrO}}_{2} }}^{\text{rt}} $ . NanoSIMS measurements of Ti in zircon overgrowths in the experiments yield values of ~100 to 800 ppm; Ti concentrations in zircon are positively correlated with temperature. Coupled with values for $ a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} $ and $ a_{{{\text{TiO}}_{2} }} $ for each experiment, zircon Ti concentrations (ppm) can be related to temperature over the range of ~1,400 to 1,200 °C by the expression: $ \ln \left( {\text{Ti ppm}} \right)^{\text{zrc}} + \ln \left( {a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} } \right) - \ln \left( {a_{{{\text{TiO}}_{2} }} } \right) = 13.84\left( {71} \right) - 12590\left( {1124} \right)/T\left( {\text{K}} \right) $ . After accounting for differences in $ a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} $ and $ a_{{{\text{TiO}}_{2} }} $ , Ti contents of zircon from experiments run with bulk compositions based on the natural granite overlap with the concentrations measured on zircon from experiments using the synthetic bulk compositions. Coupled with data from the literature, this suggests that at T ≥ 1,100 °C, natural levels of minor and trace elements in “granitic” melts do not appear to influence the solubility of Ti in zircon. Whether this is true at magmatic temperatures of crustal hydrous silica-rich liquids (e.g., 800–700 °C) remains to be demonstrated. Finally, measured $ D_{\text{Ti}}^{{{\text{zrc}}/{\text{melt}}}} $ values (calculated on a weight basis) from the experiments presented here are 0.007–0.01, relatively independent of temperature, and broadly consistent with values determined from natural zircon and silica-rich glass pairs.     

Field measurement and associated controlling factors for ground water seepage in a piedmont impoundment

Knowledge of groundwater seepage to and from lakes can be an important component of scientific investigations involving water and geochemical budgets. Measurements of groundwater seepage at Lake Anna, a man-made lake in central Virginia, show that inflow to the lake occurs even under dry summer conditions. Seepage rates were found to be correlated with the elevation of the near-shore water table, which responded rapidly to rainfall events in the fractured rock terrane in which Lake Anna is located. Seepage rates did not decline uniformly with distance offshore. This result contrasts with those for lakes underlain by relatively homogeneous porous media where measurements generally confirm the prediction that seepage rates drop off exponentially with distance from shore. The along shore variability of seepage rates in Lake Anna was related to a topographic index that is used to describe drainage from hillslopes. This suggests that seepage in impoundments such as Lake Anna may be strongly controlled by drainage pathways that pre-date the lake.