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81.
Antigua is a small island at the northern end of the Lesser Antilles chain. Its geology is largely limited to the Upper Oligocene and it records with unusual fidelity the transition from island arc volcanism to quiescence and limestone deposition. Despite the apparent limitation of a rock record confined to a short stratigraphical interval, Antigua has a geodiversity that ranges from thick andesites through silicified logs and freshwater snails in cherts to limestones that include both shallow and deeper water facies, and fine karstic features.  相似文献   
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Reconstruction of prehistoric tropical cyclone (TC) activity often relies on the identification of distinctive overwash deposits (tempestites) in coastal lagoon sediments. Similar sediment deposits, however, can result from high-energy events other than TCs. In this study we assessed the utility of using the geochemistry of ostracod valves, specifically their stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O), as a potential validation variable that could reduce the chances of misidentifying an overwash deposit as having been generated by a TC, when in fact it formed from another high-energy depositional process (type 1 error). We applied this technique to a sediment core recovered from Laguna Alejandro, Dominican Republic, which had already been analyzed for other sedimentary TC proxies. Negative δ18O anomalies identified in the ostracod valve stable isotope record are associated with TC deposits and are most easily explained by large influxes of 18O-depleted meteoric waters typical of intense tropical storms. There is potential for this technique to be used to identify TC landfalls that are not represented by overwash deposits. We, however, propose a more conservative approach and suggest this technique be used to validate the origin of a storm deposit and reduce the odds of a type 1 error.  相似文献   
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Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   
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A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.  相似文献   
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One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.  相似文献   
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Mixing dissolution, a process whereby mixtures of two waters with different chemical compositions drive undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, is commonly considered to form cavernous macroporosity (e.g. flank margin caves and banana holes) in eogenetic karst aquifers. On small islands, macroporosity commonly originates when focused dissolution forms globular chambers lacking entrances to the surface, suggesting that dissolution processes are decoupled from surface hydrology. Mixing dissolution has been thought to be the primary dissolution process because meteoric water would equilibrate rapidly with calcium carbonate as it infiltrates through matrix porosity and because pCO2 was assumed to be homogeneously distributed within the phreatic zone. Here, we report data from two abandoned well fields in an eogenetic karst aquifer on San Salvador Island, Bahamas, that demonstrate pCO2 in the phreatic zone is distributed heterogeneously. The pCO2 varied from less than log ?2.0 to more than log ?1.0 atm over distances of less than 30 m, generating dissolution in the subsurface where water flows from regions of low to high pCO2 and cementation where water flows from regions of high to low pCO2. Using simple geochemical models, we show dissolution caused by heterogeneously distributed pCO2 can dissolve 2.5 to 10 times more calcite than the maximum amount possible by mixing of freshwater and seawater. Dissolution resulting from spatial variability in pCO2 forms isolated, globular chambers lacking initial entrances to the surface, a morphology that is characteristic of flank margin caves and banana holes, both of which have entrances that form by erosion or collapse after cave formation. Our results indicate that heterogeneous pCO2, rather than mixing dissolution, may be the dominant mechanism for observed spatial distribution of dissolution, cementation and macroporosity generation in eogenetic karst aquifers and for landscape development in these settings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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