Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.     

A search for amino acids and nucleobases in the Martian meteorite Roberts Massif 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry

The investigation into whether Mars contains signatures of past or present life is of great interest to science and society. Amino acids and nucleobases are compounds that are essential for all known life on Earth and are excellent target molecules in the search for potential Martian biomarkers or prebiotic chemistry. Martian meteorites represent the only samples from Mars that can be studied directly in the laboratory on Earth. Here, we analyzed the amino acid and nucleobase content of the shergottite Roberts Massif (RBT) 04262 using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry. We did not detect any nucleobases above our detection limit in formic acid extracts; however, we did measure a suite of protein and nonprotein amino acids in hot‐water extracts with high relative abundances of β‐alanine and γ‐amino‐n‐butyric acid. The presence of only low (to absent) levels of several proteinogenic amino acids and a lack of nucleobases suggest that this meteorite fragment is fairly uncontaminated with respect to these common biological compounds. The distribution of straight‐chained amine‐terminal n‐ω‐amino acids in RBT 04262 resembled those previously measured in thermally altered carbonaceous meteorites (Burton et al. 2012; Chan et al. 2012). A carbon isotope ratio of ?24‰ ± 6‰ for β‐alanine in RBT 04262 is in the range of reduced organic carbon previously measured in Martian meteorites (Steele et al. 2012). The presence of n‐ω‐amino acids may be due to a high temperature Fischer‐Tropsch‐type synthesis during igneous processing on Mars or impact ejection of the meteorites from Mars, but more experimental data are needed to support these hypotheses.     

Ultraviolet observations of Phoebe from the Cassini UVIS

Observations of Saturn's distant moon Phoebe were made at far-ultraviolet (FUV) (1100-1900 Å) and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) (600-1100 Å) wavelengths by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) during the Cassini spacecraft flyby on June 11, 2004. These are the first UV spectra of Phoebe and the first detection of water ice on a Solar System surface using FUV wavelengths. The characteristics of water ice in the FUV are presented, and Hapke models are used to interpret the spectra in terms of composition and grain size; the use of both areal and intimate mixing models is explored. Non-ice species used in these models include carbon, ice tholin, Triton tholin, poly-HCN and kerogen. Satisfactory disk-integrated fits are obtained for intimate mixtures of ∼10% H₂O plus a non-ice species. Spatially resolved regions of higher (∼20%) and lower (∼5%) H₂O ice concentrations are also detected. Phoebe does not display any evidence of volatile activity. Upper limits on atomic oxygen and carbon are 5×¹⁰¹¹ and 2×¹⁰¹² atoms/cm², respectively, for solar photon scattering. The UVIS detection of water ice on Phoebe, and the ice amounts detected, are consistent with IR measurements and contribute to the evidence for a Phoebe origin in the outer Solar System rather than in the main asteroid belt.     

Early development of strike-slip faulting: palaeoseismic study along the Petersen Mountain fault,northern Walker Lane,Nevada

Characterising youthful strike-slip fault systems within transtensional regimes is often complicated by the presence of tectonic geomorphic features produced by normal faulting associated with oblique extension. The Petersen Mountain fault in the northern Walker Lane tectonic province exhibits evidence of both normal and strike-slip faulting. We present the results of geologic and geomorphic mapping, and palaeoseismic trenching that characterise the fault's style and sense of deformation. The fault consists of two major traces. The western trace displaces colluvial, landslide, and middle to late Pleistocene alluvial fans and is associated with aligned range front saddles, linear drainages, and oversteepened range front slopes. The eastern trace is associated with a low linear bedrock ridge, a narrow graben, right deflected stream channels, and scarps in late Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits. A trench on the eastern trace of the fault exposed a clear juxtaposition of disintegrated granodiorite bedrock against sand and boulder alluvial fan deposits across a steeply east-dipping fault. The stratigraphic evidence supports the occurrence of at least one late Pleistocene earthquake with a component of lateral displacement. As such, the Petersen Mountain fault accommodates part of the ~7 mm/yr of dextral shear distributed across the northern Walker Lane.     

Next-generation robotic planetary reconnaissance missions: A paradigm shift

A fundamentally new scientific mission concept for remote planetary surface and subsurface reconnaissance will soon replace the engineering and safety constrained mission designs of the past, allowing for optimal acquisition of geologic, paleohydrologic, paleoclimatic, and possible astrobiologic information of Mars and other extraterrestrial targets. Traditional missions have performed local ground-level reconnaissance through rovers and immobile landers, or global mapping performed by an orbiter. The former is safety and engineering constrained, affording limited detailed reconnaissance of a single site at the expense of a regional understanding, while the latter returns immense datasets, often overlooking detailed information of local and regional significance. A “tier-scalable” paradigm integrates multi-tier (orbitatmosphereground) and multi-agent (orbiterblimpsrovers/sensorwebs) hierarchical mission architectures, not only introducing mission redundancy and safety, but enabling and optimizing intelligent, unconstrained, and distributed science-driven exploration of prime locations on Mars and elsewhere, allowing for increased science return, and paving the way towards fully autonomous robotic missions.     

Three dimensional analysis of slope stability

A 3-D mathematical approach to slope stability, which is based on limiting equilibrium and variational analysis, is presented. In the initial formulation there are three unknown functions: the slip surface, the normal stress and the shear stress direction over this surface. The minimum factor of safety is sought through variational extremization. The analysis indicates that the factor of safety is independent of the normal stress distribution over the critical slip surface. It also indicates that the direction of the elementary shear force over the slip surface depends on the slip surface function, but not on the normal stress function. The analysis yields a non-linear first order partial differential equation, relating the slip surface and its first partial derivatives. By limiting the analysis to symmetrical problems an ordinary differential equation, governing the slip surface path on the plane of symmetry, is derived. This equation enables the development of a numerical procedure to determine the minimal factor of safety of symmetrical 3-D slopes. Two possible failure modes are determined for homogeneous slopes. One mode consists of finite 3-D sliding body and the second represents cylindrical failure. Numerical analyses for some simple cases, of homogencous slopes are presented.     

On the Relevance of $$\ln (z_{0} /z_{0T})= kB^{-1}$$

The assumption that the roughness Reynolds number \(( Re_{*})\) can be used as a basis for quantifying the boundary-layer property \({ kB}^{-1} (= \ln (z_{0}/z_{0T}))\) as in some modern numerical models is questioned. While \({ Re}_{*}\) is a useful property in studies of pipe flow, it appears to have only marginal applicability in the case of treeless terrain, as studied in the two experimental situations presented here. For both the daytime and night-time cases there appears to be little correlation between \({ kB}^{-1}\) and \({ Re}_{*}\). For daytime, the present studies indicate that the assumption \({ kB}^{-1} \approx 2\) is acceptable, while for night-time, the scatter involved in relating \({ kB}^{-1}\) to \({ Re}_{*}\) suggests there is little reason to assume a direct relationship. However, while the scatter affecting all of the night-time results is large, there remains a significant correlation between the heat and momentum fluxes upon which an alternative methodology for describing bulk air–surface exchange at night could be constructed. The friction coefficient (\(C_{f}\)) and the turbulent Stanton number \(({ St}_{*})\) are discussed as possible alternatives for describing bulk properties of the air layer adjacent to the surface. While describing the surface roughness in terms of the friction coefficient provides an attractive simplification relative to the conventional methodologies based on roughness length and stability considerations, use of the Stanton number shares many of uncertainties that affect \({ kB}^{-1}\). The transitions at dawn and dusk remain demanding situations to address.     

Fifty-Five Years of Fish Kills in Coastal Texas

The designation of Texas as a “hotspot” for fish mortalities relative to the other 22 coastal US states is of serious concern for scientists, resource managers, and the public alike. We investigated the major sources and causes of fish kills in coastal Texas from 1951 to 2006. During this 55-year period, more than 383 million fish were killed, 72% of which were Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia spp.). We examined the relationships between climate and the physical features of Texas bays and estuaries as well as the consequences of high-density industrialization and urbanization along several coastal centers on fish kills, including the impact of eutrophication, algal blooms (toxic and nontoxic), and hypoxia. Galveston and Matagorda Bays had the highest number of fish kill events and total number of fish killed. The largest number of fish kill events and the highest number of fish killed occurred during the warmest months, particularly in August. The leading cause of fish kills was found to be low dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by both physical and biological factors. From 1958 to 1997, about two thirds of the mortalities from low oxygen concentrations were caused by human activities. With the population predicted to double in Texas by 2050, mostly along the coastal areas, natural resources will require additional protection. Further increases in nutrient loading are expected in areas unable to keep up with construction of sewage treatment facilities. Defining the sources and causes of fish kill events in Texas will allow better management and conservation efforts.     

Use of Multiple Chemical Tracers to Define Habitat Use of Indo-Pacific Mangrove Crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scylla Serrata</Emphasis> (Decapoda: Portunidae)

The mangrove or mud crab, Scylla serrata, is an important component of mangrove fisheries throughout the Indo-Pacific. Understanding crab diets and habitat use should assist in managing these fisheries and could provide additional justification for conservation of the mangrove ecosystem itself. We used multiple chemical tracers to test whether crab movements were restricted to local mangrove forests, or extended to include adjacent seagrass beds and reef flats. We sampled three mangrove forests on the island of Kosrae in the Federated States of Micronesia at Lelu Harbor, Okat River, and Utwe tidal channel. Samples of S. serrata and likely food sources were analyzed for stable carbon (δ¹³C), nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), and sulfur (δ³⁴S) isotopes. Scylla serrata tissues also were analyzed for phosphorus (P), cations (K, Ca, Mg, Na), and trace elements (Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, and B). Discriminant analysis indicated that at least 87% of the crabs remain in each site as distinct populations. Crab stable isotope values indicated potential differences in habitat use within estuaries. Values for δ¹³C and δ³⁴S in crabs from Okat and Utwe were low and similar to values expected from animals feeding within mangrove forests, e.g., feeding on infauna that had average δ¹³C values near −26.5‰. In contrast, crabs from Lelu had higher δ¹³C and δ³⁴S values, with average values of −21.8 and 7.8‰, respectively. These higher isotope values are consistent with increased crab foraging on reef flats and seagrasses. Given that S. serrata have been observed feeding on adjacent reef and seagrass environments on Kosrae, it is likely that they move in and out of the mangroves for feeding. Isotope mixing model results support these conclusions, with the greatest mangrove ecosystem contribution to S. serrata diet occurring in the largest mangrove forests. Conserving larger island mangrove forests (> 1 km deep) appears to support crab foraging activities.     

Crowdsourcing a cyclist perspective on suggested recreational paths in real-world networks

ABSTRACT

Routing and navigation services for leisure activities are conditioned by special needs and trade-offs. The advent of online communities and large crowdsourced datasets offers opportunities to improve the adoption of a user’s perspective in these suggested paths. This paper focuses on achieving two goals. First, the presented methodology analyses a dataset of 190,610 historical GPS traces to gain insights into the appreciation or attractiveness of each edge in a real-world network for a specific leisure activity (i.e. road cycling). Second, as literature on these leisure activities is still sparse, we want to create a thorough understanding of the activities at hand for future work. An appreciation model is proposed and the spread of this score is analyzed in shortest-path alternatives of popular routing engines for this activity. This analysis successfully discriminates these shortest paths based on the scoring value and three morphological parameters of the path. However, the robustness of the model should be improved to ensure the viability of the proposed approach in future work. More specifically, further research on the local optimality of the route choices will be imperative.