A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

The origin of tin deposits in the Mount Wells region,Pine Creek Geosyncline,Northern Territory

Tabular steeply dipping cassiterite‐bearing lodes in the Mount Wells region are hosted by lower greenschist fades metasediment of the Pine Creek Geosyncline within the contact aureole of late orogenic granitoids. The latter are predominantly I‐type, but S‐type phases are developed near the sediment‐granitoid contact.

Quartz, cassiterite, pyrite, arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite and pyrrhotite are the main minerals. Two types of lodes are present: (i) Sn‐quartz lodes containing 5–10 vol% sulphide minerals; and (ii) Sn‐sulphide lodes containing ～ 70 vol% sulphide minerals. At the surface, the former appear as normal quartz veins and the latter as hematite‐quartz breccia resulting from the collapse of original sulphide‐rich lodes as a consequence of volume reduction due to oxidation and leaching.

Two stages of quartz veining are recognized in both types of lodes. Cassiterite is present in stage I while stage II is composed of barren quartz with minor pyrite. Late stage III carbonate veinlets are present in Sn‐sulphide lodes. The lode‐wallrock contact is sharp with weak alteration effects confined to the fringe of the lodes. The alteration minerals include sericite, quartz, tourmaline, chlorite, pyrite and minor K‐feldspar.

Four types of fluid inclusions are present in vein quartz and cassiterite: Type A (CO₂ ± H₂O ± CH₄); Type B (H₂O+～ 20% vapour); Type C (H₂O+ < 15% vapour) and Type D (H₂O+ < 15% vapour + NaCl). Early ‘primary’ inclusions represented by Types A and B are present in stage I only and have a well‐defined temperature mode at ～300°C and a salinity range of 1–20 wt% eq NaCl. Types C and D inclusions are ‘secondary’ in stage I and primary in stage II and have a temperature mode at 120–160°C and salinities from about 1 to more than 26 wt% eq NaCl. Variable H₂O‐CO₂ ratios of Type A inclusions and homogenization in CO₂ or H₂O phase at near identical temperature indicate entrapment at the H₂O‐CO₂ solvus and define a pressure of ～ 100 MPa. The melting sequence of frozen inclusions suggests that the ore fluids were mainly H₂O‐CO₂‐CH₄‐Na‐Ca‐Cl brines. This is also confirmed by Raman Laser Spectrometry.

Oxygen and sulphur isotope data are consistent with a magmatic origin of the ore fluids. The δD values are up to 20%0 higher than those expected for magmatic fluids and probably resulted from interaction of the latter with the carbonaceous strata. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C data on the fluid inclusion CO₂.

Fluid inclusions, stable isotope and mineralogical data are used to approximate the physico‐chemical parameters of the ore fluids which are as follows: T 300°C, m Cl～2, fO₂ ～ 10^‐35, mSS ～ 0.01, Sn ～ 1 ppm, Cu ～ 1 ppm and pH ～ 5.5.

It is suggested that fluids of granitic parentage interacted with the enclosing sediment and picked up CO₂, CH₄ and possibly Ca. The granitic phases became reduced due to this interaction and developed S‐type characteristics. Tin was probably partitioned into the CH₄‐bearing reduced fluids. At some stage the fluid overpressure exceeded the lithostatic lode enforcing failure of the carapace and the intruded rocks by hydraulic fracturing causing CH₄ and CO₂ loss resulting in the precipitation of the ore minerals.     

Biostratigraphy and ammonites of the Middle Oxfordian to lowermost Upper Kimmeridgian in northern Central Siberia

The Middle Oxfordian to lowermost Upper Kimmeridgian ammonite faunas from northern Central Siberia (Nordvik, Chernokhrebetnaya, and Levaya Boyarka sections) are discussed, giving the basis for distinguishing the ammonite zones based on cardioceratid ammonites of the genus Amoeboceras (Boreal zonation), and, within the Kimmeridgian Stage, faunas–for distinguishing zones based on the aulacostephanid ammonites (Subboreal zonation). The succession of Boreal ammonites is essentially the same as in other areas of the Arctic and NW Europe, but the Subboreal ammonites differ somewhat from those known from NW Europe and Greenland. The Siberian aulacostephanid zones—the Involuta Zone and the Evoluta Zone—are correlated with the Baylei Zone (without its lowermost portion), and the Cymodoce Zone/lowermost part of the Mutabilis Zone (the Askepta Subzone) from NW Europe. The uniform character of the Boreal ammonite faunas in the Arctic makes possible a discussion on their phylogeny during the Late Oxfordian and Kimmeridgian: the succession of particular groups of Amoeboceras species referred to successive subgenera is revealed by the occurrence of well differentiated assemblages of typical normal-sized macro and microconchs, intermittently marked by the occurrence of assemblages of paedomorphic “small-sized microconchs” appearing at some levels preceeding marked evolutionary modifications. Some comments on the paleontology of separate groups of ammonites are also given. These include a discussion on the occurrence of Middle Oxfordian ammonites of the genus Cardioceras in the Nordvik section in relation to the critical review of the paper of Rogov and Wierzbowski (2009) by Nikitenko et al. (2011). The discussion shows that the oldest deposits in the section belong to the Middle Oxfordian, which results in the necessity for some changes in the foraminiferal zonal scheme of Nikitenko et al. (2011). The ammonites of the Pictonia involuta group are distinguished as the new subgenus Mesezhnikovia Wierzbowski and Rogov.     

Swelling capacity and permeability of an unprocessed and a processed bentonitic clay

Research on the longevity of potential bentonite-based barrier materials is an important part of the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. Valuable information on the longterm effectiveness of bentonitic barriers can be obtained by examining the properties of unprocessed bentonites from natural deposits. This study compares the swelling capacity (P_s) and hydraulic conductivity (K) of an unprocessed (clay that has not been ground and dried by the supplier) and a processed bentonite from south-central Saskatchewan, Canada. The clay deposit is 75 to 85 Ma old. At a given clay density, the processed bentonite exhibits a greater P₃ and a lower K than the unprocessed clay. This can be at least partially attributed to the partial cementation of the unprocessed bentonite particles; this cementation is likely ruptured when the clay is ground during processing. Even though K for the unprocessed clay is higher than that of the processed clay, it is still low enough (< 10¹¹m/s) to meet the permeability requirements of a barrier material in a nuclear fuel waste disposal vault. The unprocessed clay also has the has the ability to self seal: exposure to water, the normalized flow rate of water through some samples was as high as 10^-5 m³/s, but the rate rapidly decreased to < 10^-10m³/s the clay absorbed water and swelled. The data indicate that the unprocessed bentonite clay maintains anacceptably high swelling capacity and low permeability millions of years after deposition.     

Numerical Observation of Three-Dimensional Wing Cracking of Cracked Chevron Notched Brazilian Disc Rock Specimen Subjected to Mixed Mode Loading

The cracked chevron notched Brazilian disc (CCNBD) specimen has been suggested by International Society for Rock Mechanics for measuring mode I fracture toughness of rocks. Subsequently, this specimen geometry has been widely extended to conduct mixed mode fracture tests on rocks as well. A straight through crack front during the fracturing process upon the root of the chevron notch is assumed in the testing principle, but has never been thoroughly evaluated before. In this study, for the first time, the progressive rock fracture mechanism of the CCNBD rock specimen under mixed mode loading is numerically simulated. Specimens under representative mixed mode loading angles are modelled; and the assumption of the straight through crack front growth is critically assessed. The results show that not only the notch tip but also the saw-cut chevron notch cracks during the experiments, yielding a prominent twisted front, far from being straight. The crack front never grows up to the root of the notch ligament and the straight through crack front assumption is never satisfied in the realistic rock fracture progress of this chevron notched specimen subjected to mixed mode loads. In contrast, the fracture progress features typical three-dimensional wing cracking towards the loading ends. The numerically observed progressive fracture mechanism reveals that the measuring principle of mixed mode fracture tests employing CCNBD specimens is significantly violated and the measures of both modes I and II fracture toughness are uncertain.     

Element Mobility During Incipient Granulite Formation at Kabbaldurga, Southern India

At Kabbaldurga, infiltration of carbonic fluids along a systemof ductile shears and foliation planes has led to partial transformationof Archaean grey biotite–hornblende gneiss to coarse-grainedmassive charnockite at about 2.5 b.y. ago. The dehydration ofthe gneiss assemblage was induced by a marked metasomatic changeof the reacting system from granodioritic to granitic, and obviouslytook place under conditions of an open system at 700–750?C and 5–7 kb. Extensive replacement of plagioclase (An_16–30)by K-feldspar through Na, Ca–K exchange reactions withthe ascending carbonic fluids led to strong enrichment in K,Rb, Ba, and SiO₂, and to a depletion in Ca. Progressive dissolutionof hornblende, biotite, magnetite, and the accessory mineralsapatite and zircon resulted in a marked depletion in Fe, Mg,Ti, Zn, V, P, and Zr. Most important is the recognition of REEmobility: with advancing charnockitization, the moderately fractionatedREE distribution patterns of the grey gneisses (La_N270; La_N/Yb_N= 5–20; Eu_N27; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–0.3) give way to stronglyfractionated REE patterns with a positive Eu-anomaly (La_N200;La_N/Yb_N = 20–80; Eu_N22; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–1.8). The systematicdepletion especially in the HREE is due to the progressive dissolutionof zircon, apatite (and monazite), which strongly concentratethe REE. Stable isotope data (¹⁸O of 6.9–8.0 per mille for gneissesand charnockites; ¹³C of –8.5 and –6.5 per millefor late carbonate) indicate a magmatogenic source for the carbonicfluids. In contrast to the currently favoured derivation ofcarbonic fluids by decarbonation of the upper mantle or degassingof underplated basaltic intrusions, it is discussed here thatabundant fluid inclusions in lower crustal charnockites providedan extensive reservoir of ‘fossil’ carbonic fluids.Shear deformation has tapped this reservoir and generated thechannel-ways for fluid ascent. Charnockitization of the Kabbaldurgatypethus appears to be a metasomatic process which is tectonicallycontrolled and restricted to the crustal level of the amphiboliteto granulite transition.     

Controlling factors of groundwater hydrochemistry in a small island’s aquifer

Factor analysis was applied to the hydrochemical data set of Manukan Island in order to extract the principal factors corresponding to the different sources of variation in the hydrochemistry. The application of varimax rotation was to ensure the clear definition of the main sources of variation in the hydrochemistry. The geochemical data of dissolved major, minor and trace constituents in the groundwater samples indicates the main processes responsible for the geochemistry evolution. By using Kaiser normalization, principal factors were extracted from the data for each location. The analysis reveals that there are four sources of solutes: (1) seawater intrusion; (2) leaching process of underlying rock mediated by pH; (3) minerals weathering process and (4) dissolution of carbonate minerals characterized by high loadings of Ca, Zn and Mg. Such processes are dominated by the significant role of anthropogenic impact from the over abstraction of fresh water from the aquifer. Those factors contributed to the changes of the groundwater geochemistry behavior explain the effect of rising extraction of freshwater from the aquifer.     

Contrasting soils and landscapes of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain, eastern United States

The Piedmont and Coastal Plain physiographic provinces comprise 80 percent of the Atlantic Coastal states from New Jersey to Georgia. The provinces are climatically similar. The soil moisture regime is udic. The soil temperature regime is typically thermic from Virginia through Georgia, although it is mesic at altitudes above 400 m in Georgia and above 320 m in Virginia. The soil temperature regime is mesic for the Piedmont and Coastal Plain from Maryland through New Jersey. The tightly folded, structurally complex crystalline rocks of the Piedmont and the gently dipping “layer-cake” clastic sedimentary rocks and sediments of the Coastal Plain respond differently to weathering, pedogenesis, and erosion. The different responses result in two physiographically contrasting terrains; each has distinctive near-surface hydrology, regolith, drainage morphology, and morphometry.The Piedmont is predominantly an erosional terrain. Interfluves are as narrow as 0.5 to 2 km, and are convex upward. Valleys are as narrow as 0.1 to 0.5 km and generally V-shaped in cross section. Alluvial terraces are rare and discontinuous. Soils in the Piedmont are typically less than 1 m thick, have less sand and more clay than Coastal Plain soils, and generally have not developed sandy epipedons. Infiltration rates for Piedmont soils are low at 6–15 cm/h. The soil/saprolite, soil/rock, and saprolite/rock boundaries are distinct (can be placed within 10 cm) and are characterized by ponding and/or lateral movement of water. Water movement through soil into saprolite, and from saprolite into rock, is along joints, foliation, bedding planes and faults. Soils and isotopic data indicate residence times consistent with a Pleistocene age for most Piedmont soils.The Coastal Plain is both an erosional and a constructional terrain. Interfluves commonly are broader than 2 km and are flat. Valleys are commonly as wide as 1 km to greater than 10 km, and contain numerous alluvial and estuarine terrace sequences that can be correlated along valleys for tens of kilometers. Coastal Plain soils are typically as thick as 2 to 8 m, have high sand content throughout, and have sandy epipedons. These epipedons consist of both A and E horizons and are 1 to 4 m thick. In Coastal Plain soils, the boundaries are transitional between the solum and the underlying parent material and between weathered and unweathered parent material. Infiltration rates for Coastal Plain soils are typically higher at 13–28 cm/h, than are those for Piedmont soils. Indeed, for unconsolidated quartz sand, rates may exceed 50 cm/h. Water moves directly from the soil into the parent material through intergranularpores with only minor channelization along macropores, joints, and fractures. The comparatively high infiltration capacity results in relatively low surface runoff, and correspondingly less erosion than on the Piedmont uplands.Due to differences in Piedmont and Coastal Plain erosion rates, topographic inversion is common along the Fall Zone; surfaces on Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Coastal Plain are higher than erosional surfaces on regolith weathered from late Precambrian to early Paleozoic crystalline rocks of the Piedmont. Isotopic, paleontologic, and soil data indicate that Coastal Plain surficial deposits are post-middle Miocene to Holocene in age, but most are from 5 to 2 Ma. Thus, the relatively uneroded surfaces comprise a Pliocene landscape. In the eastern third of the Coastal Plain, deposits that are less than 3.5 Ma include alluvial terraces, marine terraces and barrier/back-barrier complexes as morphostratigraphic units that cover thousands of square kilometers. Isotopic and soil data indicate that eastern Piedmont soils range from late Pliocene to Pleistocene in age, but are predominantly less than 2 Ma old. Thus, the eroded uplands of the Piedmont “peneplain” comprise a Pleistocene landscape.     

Granite fracture index to check suitability of granite outcrops for quarrying

A correct knowledge of fracture patterns previous to quarrying is important for economical exploitation. This work comprises the general characterization of the discontinuities of 10 granite rock masses in NE Portugal. During the study some discontinuity characteristics such as orientation, persistence, aperture, trace length and spacing were evaluated. The differences in the characteristics of the selected granites were described, and the most important exploration factors were identified. In the granites studied, most of the joints are oriented from N10°E to N50°E, which is compatible with the regional fracture pattern. Concerning joint termination, the XX type is common, while the RR type is rare; the persistence index ranges from 3.5% to 25.4%. Closed joints are predominant in the granites studied (> 72.4%), and openings of the others are about 1–2 mm as a result of superficial displacement of the granite blocks. The percentage of filled joints, usually by quartz and pegmatite, is different from one granite to another, but most are < 20%. The average joint length ranges from 11.1 m in post-tectonics granites to 4.6 m in syntectonic granites. Joint spacing varies from 0.98 to 2.8 m with higher values in post-tectonic granites. Joint-space distributions of the granites studied are close to log-normal and exponential distributions. Volumetric joint count (Jv) ranges from 0.8 to 2.1 joints/m³ and is used for categorizing the places of each granite. The relationships between Jv and other joint characteristics, such as length, spacing and number of joint sets, were investigated. A Granite Fracturing Index (GFI) is introduced, computed on the basis of volumetric joint count, number of joint sets and true joint spacing. The GFI classification of studied places allows us evaluate the suitability for profitable exploitation.     

Diamonds in the products of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik eruption (Kamchatka) and mechanism of their formation

The origin of diamonds in the lava and ash of the recent Tolbachik eruption of 2012–2013 (Kamchatka) is enigmatic. The mineralogy of the host rocks provides no evidence for the existence of the high pressure that is necessary for diamond formation. The analysis of carbon isotope systematics showed a similarity between the diamonds and dispersed carbon from the Tolbachik lava, which could serve as a primary material for diamond synthesis. There are grounds to believe that the formation of Tolbachik diamonds was related to fluid dynamics. Based on the obtained results, it was suggested that Tolbachik microdiamonds were formed as a result of cavitation during the rapid movement of volcanic fluid. The possibility of cavitation-induced diamond formation was previously theoretically substantiated by us and confirmed experimentally. During cavitation, ultrahigh pressure is generated locally (in collapsing bubbles), while the external pressure is not critical for diamond synthesis. The conditions of the occurrence of cavitation are rather common in geologic processes. Therefore, microdiamonds of such an origin may be much more abundant in nature than was supposed previously.