Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Investigation of the instability of graveyard orbits due to the earth's gravitational perturbations

Summary The Banach theorem is applied to the Lagrange planetary equation for the semimajor axis of a geostationary satellite orbit to estimate the stability of near-geostationary satellite orbits. To achieve a graveyard (disposal) orbit, which will not interfere (=cross) the initial geostationary orbit, the geostationary semi-major axis a_g have to be increased at least by 50 km. Numerical results for a variety of graveyard orbits show that the increase of a_g by about 100 km will yield sufficiently stable orbits (accounting for the Earth's gravitational perturbations only) during the next 150 years.Dedicated to the 75th Birthday of Professor Academician Tibor Kolbenheyer     

On the determination of the European gravimetric geoid

Summary The method of the automated computation of the gravimetric deflections of the vertical and of the geoidal heights for the European region is described. The work was carried out during the period 1986–1988 by the Topographic Service of the Czechoslovak Army. The computation applies to 20 sheets of the international map 1:1 000 000 (total area of =16^c, =30^c - see Fig. 1). The mean values of the free-air anomalies for each surface element =5, =7.5, approximately 9 × 9 km, were used with radius of integration of 300 km.     

Period variation of selected cepheids

The aim of the present paper is to study the period as well as -velocity changes of 12 cepheid-type variable stars in order to find possible evidence for duplicity. Light-time effect was found in the O-C diagram of RY CMa, the orbital period being about 5200 days. Furthermore, especially spectroscopic observations are needed to confirm the duplicity or render the accurate orbital solution possible.     

Cluster analysis of the space-time distribution of sunspot groups during solar cycle no. 20

Cluster analysis (a Bayesian iteration procedure) was used to study the space-time distribution of sunspot groups in the time interval from 1965 to 1977. (Data were taken from the Greenwich and Debrecen Heliographic Results.) The distribution proved to be significantly non-random for the 8–10 groups cluster^–1 (gr cl^–1) level of clustering. Convincing evidence also favours non-random behaviour for other levels of clustering from the lowest (3–4 gr cl^–1) up to the highest ( 150 gr cl^–1) level. The rotation rate of the non-random pattern is generally slightly lower than the Carrington rate.The 8–10 gr cl^–1 level, crudely corresponding to the sunspot nests investigated earlier, was studied in more detail. The cycle- and latitude-averaged rotational rate of the nests is slightly ( 1%) but significantly lower than the Carrington rate. Their differential rotation is strongly reduced: the cycle-averaged rotational rate varies only by 2–3% within the sunspot belt. A slight but significant bimodality is seen in the differential rotation curve: the intermediate latitudes ( 10°–20°) show a somewhat slower rotation than both the equatorial and the higher latitude regions. This might be explained by a time-dependence of the rotation rate coupled with the butterfly diagram.     

Dynamical instability in accreting white dwarfs

We study the evolution of solid, CO white dwarfs after explosive carbon ignition at central densities around 10¹⁰ g cm^–3 triggered by steady accretion in a close binary system, in order to elucidate whether these stars can collapse to form a neutron star. We show that as long as the velocity of the burning front remains below a critical value of 0.006c _s (60 km s^–1), gravitational collapse is the final fate. These calculations support the accretion-induced collapse (AIC) scenario for the origin of a fraction of low-mass X-ray binaries.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

AGNs,X-ray background and the possible candidates for great attractor

In the five last years, different structures (density excess 1) have been proposed as the direct cause of our infall toward the direction of Hydra—Centaurus with a velocity of 500 km s^–1. The direct effect of the mentioned matter accumulations on the X-ray background (XRB) can be estimated as a function of the geometry of the structures and of the cosmological evolution of the sources emitting in the X-ray band (2–10 keV) for different universes (₀1). If the XRB comes mostly from AGNs with low luminosity (L _X <10⁴³ erg s^–1 and, therefore, they will have a weak cosmological evolution) and we consider the difference between the intensities coming from both hemispheres (that oriented toward the direction of our motion and the opposite one) obtained by means of different satellites, we can conclude that some candidates are highly unlikely.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain     

Strömgren photometry of a-stars: A test of physical parameter determination

By use of known published values forT _eff, logg, andM _v, a check on our procedure for determining the physical parameters of A v-type stars from Strömgren photometry has been performed. External errors for our calculated physical parameters have been obtained.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

Exact solution to radiation-filled Brans-Dicke closed space cosmology

Under the assumption of a power law (k·R ⁿ=C,C=const.) between the gravitational constantk and the radius of curvatureR of the Universe and forP=1/3 the exact solution is sought for the cosmological equations of Brans and Dicke. The solution turns out to be valid for closed space and the parameter of the scalar-tensor theory is necessarily negative. The radius of curvature increases linearly with respect to the age of the Universe while the gravitational constant grows with the square of the radius of curvature. It has been shown (Lessner, 1974) that in this case (KR ²) the spatial component of the field equations is independent of the remaining equations. However, our solution satisfies this independent equation. This solution for the radiation-dominated era corresponds to the solution for the matter-dominated era found by Dehnen and one of the authors (Dehnen and Obregón, 1971). Our solution, as is the solution previously obtained for the matter-dominated era, is in contradiction to Dirac's hypothesis in which the gravitational constant should decrease with time in an expanding Universe.