Model-based clustering of Baltic sea-level

Long (>30 years) monthly records of relative sea-level heights from tide gauges in the Baltic sea are analyzed. Time series clustering based on forecast densities is applied in order to describe regional sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea in terms of future relative heights. The tide gauge records are clustered on the basis of forecasts at 3-month and 6-month horizons. For the 3-month horizon, the results of the cluster analysis show a fairly spatial coherency in terms of grouping together locations from the same sub-basin, with the northern records in the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland clustering together, followed by the tide gauges in the Baltic Proper and lastly the southernmost stations in the western Baltic. For the 6-month horizon, the results show a higher degree of homogeneity between different locations, but a clear separation between the stations at the Baltic entrance and the tide gauges inside the Baltic basin. Moreover, when considering detrended records, reflecting mainly the seasonal cycle, the clustering results are more homogeneous and suggest a distinct response of coastal sea-level in spring and in summer.     

Gas flow in anisotropic claystone: modelling triaxial experiments

Selected gas pulse tests on initially saturated claystone samples under isotropic confinement pressure are simulated using a 3D thermo‐hydro‐mechanical code. The constitutive model considers the hydro‐mechanical anisotropy of argillaceous rocks. A cross‐anisotropic linear elastic law is adopted for the mechanical behaviour. Elements for a proper modelling of gas flow along preferential paths include an embedded fracture permeability model. Rock permeability and its retention curve depend on strains through a fracture aperture. The hydraulic and mechanical behaviours have a common anisotropic structure. Small‐scale heterogeneity is considered to enhance the initiation of flow through preferential paths, following the direction of the bedding planes. The numerical simulations were performed considering two different bedding orientations, parallel and normal to the imposed flow in the test. Simulations are in agreement with recorded upstream and downstream pressures in the tests. The evolution of fluid pressures, degree of saturation, element permeability and stress paths are presented for each case analysed. This information provides a good insight into the mechanisms of gas transport. Different flow patterns are obtained depending on bedding orientation, and the results provide an explanation for the results obtained in the tests. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pleistocene–Holocene environmental change in the Canary Archipelago as inferred from the stable isotope composition of land snail shells

The isotopic composition of land snail shells was analyzed to investigate environmental changes in the eastern Canary Islands (28–29°N) over the last ~ 50 ka. Shell δ¹³C values range from −8.9‰ to 3.8‰. At various times during the glacial interval (~ 15 to ~ 50 ka), moving average shell δ¹³C values were 3‰ higher than today, suggesting a larger proportion of C₄ plants at those periods. Shell δ¹⁸O values range from −1.9‰ to 4.5‰, with moving average δ¹⁸O values exhibiting a noisy but long-term increase from 0.1‰ at ~ 50 ka to 1.6–1.8‰ during the LGM (~ 15–22 ka). Subsequently, the moving average δ¹⁸O values range from 0.0‰ at ~ 12 ka to 0.9‰ at present. Calculations using a published snail flux balance model for δ¹⁸O, constrained by regional temperatures and ocean δ¹⁸O values, suggest that relative humidity at the times of snail activity fluctuated but exhibited a long-term decline over the last ~ 50 ka, eventually resulting in the current semiarid conditions of the eastern Canary Islands (consistent with the aridification process in the nearby Sahara). Thus, low-latitude oceanic island land snail shells may be isotopic archives of glacial to interglacial and tropical/subtropical environmental change.     

The Baraza Slide: model and dynamics

The Baraza Slide is located in the northwestern Alboran Sea, western Mediterranean region, between 590 and 830?m water depth, and its morphology, seismic facies and sedimentary structure are analyzed based on multibeam bathymetry and very high to medium resolution single-channel seismic records. During the Pleistocene and Late Quaternary this landslide has undergone repeated slope failures characterized by a succession of two main types of mass movement, the first of the mass-flow type and the second of the slide type. This study also reveals that the western sector of this landslide could still be active. The relatively high slope gradients, a sedimentary column characterized by the presence of under consolidated layers and earthquake shaking related to tectonic activity on the margin are the factors governing the genesis and post-mobility behavior of the Baraza mass movement. The recognition and analysis of these factors suggest that the Baraza Slide should be considered as a geo-hazard in the tectonically active Alboran Sea.     

A review of Markov Chain Monte Carlo and information theory tools for inverse problems in subsurface flow

Parameter identification is one of the key elements in the construction of models in geosciences. However, inherent difficulties such as the instability of ill-posed problems or the presence of multiple local optima may impede the execution of this task. Regularization methods and Bayesian formulations, such as the maximum a posteriori estimation approach, have been used to overcome those complications. Nevertheless, in some instances, a more in-depth analysis of the inverse problem is advisable before obtaining estimates of the optimal parameters. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods used in Bayesian inference have been applied in the last 10 years in several fields of geosciences such as hydrology, geophysics or reservoir engineering. In the present paper, a compilation of basic tools for inference and a case study illustrating the practical application of them are given. Firstly, an introduction to the Bayesian approach to the inverse problem is provided together with the most common sampling algorithms with MCMC chains. Secondly, a series of estimators for quantities of interest, such as the marginal densities or the normalization constant of the posterior distribution of the parameters, are reviewed. Those reduce the computational cost significantly, using only the time needed to obtain a sample of the posterior probability density function. The use of the information theory principles for the experimental design and for the ill-posedness diagnosis is also introduced. Finally, a case study based on a highly instrumented well test found in the literature is presented. The results obtained are compared with the ones computed by the maximum likelihood estimation approach.     

Neotectonic basin and landscape evolution in the Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina,Humahuaca Basin (~24°S)

The intermontane Quebrada de Humahuaca Basin (Humahuaca Basin) in the Eastern Cordillera of the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina (23°–24°S) records the evolution of a formerly contiguous foreland‐basin setting to an intermontane depositional environment during the late stages of Cenozoic Andean mountain building. This basin has been and continues to be subject to shortening and surface uplift, which has resulted in the establishment of an orographic barrier for easterly sourced moisture‐bearing winds along its eastern margin, followed by leeward aridification. We present new U–Pb zircon ages and palaeocurrent reconstructions suggesting that from at least 6 Ma until 4.2 Ma, the Humahuaca Basin was an integral part of a largely contiguous depositional system that became progressively decoupled from the foreland as deformation migrated eastward. The Humahuaca Basin experienced multiple cycles of severed hydrological conditions and subsequent re‐captured drainage, fluvial connectivity with the foreland and sediment evacuation. Depositional and structural relationships among faults, regional unconformities and deformed landforms reveal a general pattern of intrabasin deformation that appears to be associated with different cycles of alluviation and basin excavation in which deformation is focused on basin‐internal structures during or subsequent to phases of large‐scale sediment removal.     

Episodic dust formation by HD 192641 (WR 137) – II

We present new infrared photometry of the WC7-type Wolf–Rayet star HD 192641 (WR 137) from 1985 to 1999. These data track the cooling of the dust cloud formed in the 1982–84 dust-formation episode from 1985 to 1991, the increase of the infrared flux from 1994.5 to a new dust-formation maximum in 1997 and its subsequent fading. From these and earlier data we derive a period of 4765±50 d (13.05±0.15 yr) for the dust-formation episodes. Between dust-emission episodes, the infrared spectral energy distribution has the form of a power law, λF _λ ∝ λ ^−1.86. The rising branch of the infrared light curve (1994–97) differs in form from that of the episodic dust-maker WR 125. Time-dependent modelling shows that this difference can be attributed to a different time dependence of dust formation in WR 137, which occurred approximately ∝ t ² until maximum, whereas that of WR 125 could be described by a step function, akin to a threshold effect. For an adopted distance of 1.6 kpc, the rate of dust formation was found to be 5.0×10⁻⁸ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ at maximum, accounting for a fraction f _C≈1.5×10⁻³ of the carbon flowing in the stellar wind. The fading branches of the light curves show evidence for secondary 'mini-eruptions' in 1987, 1988 and 1990, behaviour very different from that of the prototypical episodic dust-maker HD 193793 (WR 140), and suggesting the presence in the WR 137 stellar wind of large-scale structures that are crossed by the wind–wind collision region.     

Climatic cycles inferred from the aminostratigraphy and aminochronology of Quaternary dunes and palaeosols from the eastern islands of the Canary Archipelago

Aminochronological and aminostratigraphical methods have been used to study the Quaternary aeolian deposits from the islands located east of the Canary Archipelago (Fuerteventura and Lanzarote islands and La Graciosa, Montaña Clara and Alegranza islets). The extent of racemisation/epimerisation of four amino acids (isoleucine, aspartic acid, phenylalanine and glutamic acid) was measured in land snail shells of the genus Theba. The age calculation algorithms of these amino acids have been determined to permit the numerical dating of these deposits. Eight Aminozones, each defining dune/palaeosol‐formation episodes, have been distinguished and dated at 48.6 ± 6.4, 42.5 ± 6.0, 37.8 ± 4.6, 29.4 ± 4.8, 22.4 ± 4.5, 14.9 ± 3.6, 11.0 ± 4.0 and 5.4 ± 1.1 ka BP, the first five of them defining cycles of 5–7 ka. The alternation of palaeosols and aeolian deposits, which are related to abrupt transitions from humid to arid conditions, are the reflection of globally induced changes in North Africa palaeoenvironmental conditions linked to the effect of African palaeomonsoons on the trade winds and the Saharan Air Layer. Probably these aeolian cycles, with a recurrence period of 5–7 ka, are the expression of multiples of the ～2.4 ka solar‐cycle. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calcification rate and temperature effects on Sr partitioning in coccoliths of multiple species of coccolithophorids in culture

Five common placolith-bearing coccolithophorid algae—Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Coccolithus pelagicus, Calcidiscus leptoporus, Umbilicosphaera sibogae (var. sibogae and var. foliosa), and Emiliania huxleyi—were cultured to investigate controls on Sr partitioning in coccolith calcite. For identical temperature and media composition, Sr partitioning varies by more than 30% in exponential phase cultures of the five species and is linearly related to rates of calcite production/cell (ρ=0.91). Exponential phase culture experiments with three strains of C. leptoporus and six strains of G. oceanica at varying temperatures show variations in Sr partitioning of 20% and 30%, respectively. With C. leptoporus, Sr partitioning is equally correlated with temperature and calcification rate (ρ=0.8), which themselves are highly correlated; the slope of the relationship between D_Sr and calcification rate is comparable to that observed in all species at constant temperature. However, in G. oceanica, increased temperature appears to enhance Sr incorporation by up to 2% to 1.6% °C⁻¹ in the range of 15 to 30 °C. The strong influence of calcification rate on Sr partitioning may be useful for inferring past variations in coccolithophorid productivity from Sr partitioning in coccolith sediments if the influence of temperature on Sr partitioning can be resolved. Because the relationship between calcite production and Sr partitioning is linear, a proportional change in calcification should be expressed much more strongly in the Sr/Ca ratio of large species with rapid calcite production than in smaller species, which produce calcite more slowly. Consequently, it may be possible to separate temperature and calcification influences on coccolith Sr/Ca by separately analyzing Sr/Ca in species that produce calcite rapidly and those that produce calcite slowly, if both undergo comparable relative changes in calcification rates.