Elevation Dependence of Winter Wheat Production in Eastern Washington State with Climate Change: A Methodological Study

Crop growth models, used in climate change impact assessments to project production on a local scale, can obtain the daily weather information to drive them from models of the Earth's climate. General Circulation Models (GCMs), often used for this purpose, provide weather information for the entire globe but often cannot depict details of regional climates especially where complex topography plays an important role in weather patterns. The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an important wheat growing region where climate patterns are difficult to resolve with a coarse scale GCM. Here, we use the PNNL Regional Climate Model (RCM) which uses a sub-grid parameterization to resolve the complex topography and simulate meteorology to drive the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model. The climate scenarios were extracted from the PNNL-RCM baseline and 2 × CO₂ simulationsfor each of sixteen 90 km² grid cells of the RCM, with differentiation byelevation and without correction for climate biases. The dominant agricultural soil type and farm management practices were established for each grid cell. Using these climate and management data in EPIC, we simulated winter wheat production in eastern Washington for current climate conditions (baseline) and a 2 × CO₂ `greenhouse' scenario of climate change.Dryland wheat yields for the baseline climate averaged 4.52 Mg ha^–1 across the study region. Yields were zero at high elevations where temperatures were too low to allow the crops to mature. The highest yields (7.32 Mgha^–1) occurred at intermediate elevations with sufficientprecipitation and mild temperatures. Mean yield of dryland winter wheat increased to 5.45 Mg ha^–1 for the 2 × CO₂ climate, which wasmarkedly warmer and wetter. Simulated yields of irrigated wheat were generally higher than dryland yields and followed the same pattern but were, of course, less sensitive to increases in precipitation. Increases in dryland and irrigated wheat yields were due, principally, to decreases in the frequency of temperature and water stress. This study shows that the elevation of a farm is a more important determinant of yield than farm location in eastern Washington and that climate changes would affect wheat yields at all farms in the study.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO₂] and appears likely to increase under climate change.     

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country.     

δB, Sr, Mg and B in a modern Porites coral: the relationship between calcification site pH and skeletal chemistry

Sr/Ca, B/Ca, Mg/Ca and δ¹¹B were determined at high spatial resolution across ∼1 year of a modern Hawaiian Porites lobata coral by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). We observe significant variations in B/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and δ¹¹B over short skeletal distances (nominally equivalent to periods of <20 days). This heterogeneity probably reflects variations in the composition of the extracellular calcifying fluid (ECF) from which the skeleton precipitates. Calcification site pH (total scale) was estimated from skeletal δ¹¹B and ranged from 8.3 to 8.8 (± ∼0.1) with a mean of ∼8.6. Sr/Ca and B/Ca heterogeneity is not simply correlated with calcification site pH, as might be expected if Ca-ATPase activity increases the pH and decreases the Sr/Ca and B(OH)₄⁻/CO₃²⁻ ratios of the ECF. We produced a simple model of the ECF composition and the skeleton deposited from it, over a range of calcium transport and carbonate scenarios, which can account for these observed geochemical variations. The relationship between the pH and Sr/Ca of the ECF is dependent on the concentration of DIC at the calcification site. At higher DIC concentrations the ECF has a high capacity to buffer the [H⁺] changes induced by Ca-ATPase pumping. Conversely, at low DIC concentrations, this buffering capacity is reduced and ECF pH changes more rapidly in response to Ca-ATPase pumping. The absence of a simple correlation between ECF pH and skeletal Sr/Ca implies that calcification occurred under a range of DIC concentrations, reflecting variations in the respiration and photosynthesis of the coral and symbiotic zooxanthellate in the overlying coral tissues. Our observations have important implications for the use of coral skeletons as indicators of palaeo-ocean pH.     

The Erbisberg drilling 2011: Implications for the structure and postimpact evolution of the inner ring of the Ries impact crater

The 26 km diameter Nördlinger Ries is a complex impact structure with a ring structure that resembles a peak ring. A first research drilling through this “inner crystalline ring” of the Ries was performed at the Erbisberg hill (SW Ries) to better understand the internal structure and lithology of this feature, and possibly reveal impact‐induced hydrothermal alteration. The drill core intersected the slope of a 22 m thick postimpact travertine mound, before entering 42 m of blocks and breccias of crystalline rocks excavated from the Variscan basement at >500 m depth. Weakly shocked gneiss blocks that show that shock pressure did not exceed 5 GPa occur above polymict lithic breccias of shock stage Ia (10–20 GPa), with planar fractures and planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz. Only a narrow zone at 49.20–50.00 m core depth exhibits strong mosaicism in feldspar and {102} PDFs in quartz, which are indicative of shock stage Ib (20–35 GPa). Finally, 2 m of brecciated Keuper sediments at the base of the section point to an inverse layering of strata. While reverse grading of clast sizes in lithic breccias and gneiss blocks is consistent with lateral transport, the absence of diaplectic glass and melt products argues against dynamic overthrusting of material from a collapsing central peak, as seen in the much larger Chicxulub structure. Indeed, weakly shocked gneiss blocks are rather of local provenance (i.e., the transient crater wall), whereas moderately shocked polymict lithic breccias with geochemical composition and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signature similar to Ries suevite were derived from a position closer to the impact center. Thus, the inner ring of the Ries is formed by moderately shocked polymict lithic breccias likely injected into the transient crater wall during the excavation stage and weakly shocked gneiss blocks of the collapsing transient crater wall that were emplaced during the modification stage. While the presence of an overturned flap is not evident from the Erbisberg drilling, a survey of all drillings at or near the inner ring point to inverted strata throughout its outer limb. Whether the central ring of the Ries represents remains of a collapsed central peak remains to be shown. Postimpact hydrothermal alteration along the Erbisberg section comprises chloritization, sulfide veinlets, and strong carbonatization. In addition, a narrow zone in the lower parts of the polymict lithic breccia sequence shows a positive Eu anomaly in its carbonate phase. The surface expression of this hydrothermal activity, i.e., the travertine mound, comprises subaerial as well as subaquatic growth phases. Intercalated lake sediments equivalent to the early parts of the evolution of the central crater basin succession confirm a persistent impact‐generated hydrothermal activity, although for less time than previously suggested.     

Seasonal variations of the near surfacelayer parameters over the Antarctic ice sheet in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica

Analysis of sensible heat flux(Qh),latent heat flux(Qe),Richardson number(Ri),bulk transport coefficient(Cd) and katabatic winds are presented by using the meteorological data in the near surface layer from an automatic weather station(AWS) in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica ice sheet and the data of corresponding period at Zhongshan station in 2002.It shows that annual mean air temperature at LGB69 is-25.6°C,which is 16.4°C lower than that at Zhongshan,where the elevation is lower and located on the coast.The temperature lapse rate is about 1.0°C/110 m for the initial from coast to inland.The turbulence heat flux at LGB69 displays obvious seasonal variations with the average sensible heat flux-17.9 W/m2 and latent heat flux-0.9 W/m2.The intensity(Qh Qe) of coolling source is-18.8 W/m2 meaning the snow surface layer obtains heat from atmosphere.The near surface atmosphere is near-neutral stratified with bulk transport coefficients(Cd) around 2.8×10-3,and it is near constant when the wind speed higher than 8 m/s.The speed and the frequency of easterly Katabatic winds at LGB69 were higher than that at Zhongshan Station.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions.     

Seasonal variation of hepatic mixed function oxidases in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus)

Indices of hepatic mixed function oxidase (MFO) activity in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) were measured at approximately monthly intervals from November 1983 to October 1985. Benzo[a]pyrene hydroxylase and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activities and cytochromes P450 and b₅ were generally, but not significantly, higher in males than in females. The MFO activity varied seasonally, reaching a maximum during or shortly after spawning. Variation in MFO enzyme activity between sexes was never greater than 2-fold at any time, and within sex, no greater than 6-fold during the seasonal cycle. This variability is less than that caused by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of some pollutants; measurements of MFO activity in this species might therefore be used to indicate environmental contamination.     

Marine vs. terrigenous organic matter in Louisiana coastal sediments: The uses of bromine:organic carbon ratios

Recent data on the sources of organic carbon buried in the ocean have emphasized the probable importance of terrigenous organic matter in burial budgets of deltaic depocenters. The many markers used to assess relative importance of marine vs. terrestrial sources each have ambiguities. We use the ratio of bromine to organic carbon (Br:OC) as a source indicator for organic matter in the Mississippi delta. Progressive increases in bromine concentrations from the river to the slope indicate increasing content of marine-derived organic matter. Quantitative estimates of marine vs. terrigenous organic matter using Br:OC ratios in a two-endmember mixing model are consistent with recent estimates using a combination of three other source markers [Gordon, E.S., Goñi, M.A. 2003. Sources and distribution of terrigenous organic matter delivered by the Atchafalaya River to sediments in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 67:2359–2375]. The Br:OC vs. δ¹³C relationship indicates seaward increase in δ¹³C without proportionate incorporation of marine organic matter, consistent with recent arguments that isotopically depleted terrestrial detritus derived from C3 plants is separated from C4-derived terrigenous organic matter during transport. Decreasing Br:OC ratios downcore at many sites that have significant amounts of marine organic matter indicate that the marine organic matter is preferentially lost during burial diagenesis. This preferential loss constrains the contribution of organic matter burial in deltaic environments to global removal of Br.