Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.     

Gas hydrate disturbance fabrics of southern Hydrate Ridge sediments (ODP Leg 204): Relationship with texture and physical properties

Soupy and mousse-like fabrics are disturbance sedimentary features that result from the dissociation of gas hydrate, a process that releases water. During the core retrieval process, soupy and mousse-like fabrics are produced in the gas hydrate-bearing sediments due to changes in pressure and temperature conditions. Therefore, the identification of soupy and mousse-like fabrics can be used as a proxy for the presence of gas hydrate in addition to other evidence, such as pore water freshening or anomalously cool temperature. We present here grain-size results, mineralogical composition and magnetic susceptibility data of soupy and mousse-like samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge (Cascadia accretionary complex) acquired during Leg 204 of the Ocean Drilling Program. In order to study the relationship between sedimentary texture and the presence of gas hydrates, we have compared these results with the main textural and compositional data available from the same area. Most of the disturbed analyzed samples from the summit and the western flank of southern Hydrate Ridge show a mean grain size coarser than the average mean grain size of the hemipelagic samples from the same area. The depositional features of the sediments are not recognised due to disturbance. However, their granulometric statistical parameters and distribution curves, and magnetic susceptibility logs indicate that they correspond to a turbidite facies. These results suggest that gas hydrates in the southern Hydrate Ridge could form preferentially in coarser grain-size layers that could act as conduits feeding gas from below the BSR. Two samples from the uppermost metres near the seafloor at the summit of the southern Hydrate Ridge show a finer mean grain-size value than the average of hemipelagic samples. They were located where the highest amount of gas hydrates was detected, suggesting that in this area the availability of methane gas was high enough to generate gas hydrates, even within low-permeability layers. The mineralogical composition of the soupy and mousse-like sediments does not show any specific characteristic with respect to the other samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge.     

Daily Meteorological Observations in Cádiz – San Fernando. Analysis of the Documentary Sources and the Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)

Meteorological observations in the city of Cádiz are acknowledged as having been made from the middle of the 18th century onwards although they were only recorded and preserved in documentary form from 1789 onwards. Data readings were taken at the new Naval Observatory in San Fernando, ten kilometres from Cádiz, from 1797 onwards. Continuous series for temperature and atmospheric pressure at a daily resolution have been compiled and constructed from 1817 until 1996. The data series is composed of thrice daily observations made at Cádiz (1821–1880) by local observers and hourly data from Naval Observatory at San Fernando (1870–1996).     

Prediction of PM10 and SO2 exceedances to control air pollution in the Bay of Algeciras,Spain

In this paper, the authors apply different classification techniques in order to provide 24 h advance forecasts of the daily peaks of SO₂ and PM10 concentrations in the Bay of Algeciras. K-nearest-neighbours, multilayer neural network with backpropagation and support vector machines (SVMs) are the classification methods used. The aim of this research is to obtain a suitable prediction model that would enable us to predict the peaks of pollutant concentrations in critical meteorological situations caused by the widespread existing industry and population in the area. A resampling strategy with twofold crossvalidation has been applied, using different quality indexes to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. SVM models achieved better true positive rate and accuracy (ACC) quality indexes. Results of ACC index value of 0.795 for PM10 and 0.755 for SO₂ showed the ability of the model to predict peaks and non-peaks correctly.     

Smoothing and high risk areas detection in space-time disease mapping: a comparison of P-splines,autoregressive, and moving average models

Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data.     

Numerical modelling of the potential effects of a dam on a coastal aquifer in S. Spain

This study presents the results of a three‐dimensional variable‐density numerical modelling of the Motril‐Salobreña coastal aquifer and the possible effects of the entry into service in May 2005 of the Rules Dam, located just 17 km from the coast. Present parameters of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer show that the system's conditions are very similar to a natural regime. The dam will substantially alter aquifer recharge, as the entry flow through the alluvial sediments of the Guadalfeo River will be entirely cut off or drastically reduced. Different scenarios reproducing the possible evolution of the aquifer under operation of the Rules Dam have been modelled. In most cases, results indicate that the conditions of the aquifer would worsen, with a general advance of the freshwater–saltwater interface. The area with most risk of saltwater intrusion is the old mouth of the Guadalfeo River, where the mixing zone could advance 1200 m inland. It is proposed that maintaining a 5–6 Mm³ year^?1 ‘ecological flow’ in the Guadalfeo River could prevent this saline advance. This application demonstrates that variable‐density models are potentially useful tools for estimating the effects of dams on the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical conditions of a coastal aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid finite-fault analysis of large Mexico earthquakes using teleseismic P waves

Journal of Seismology - We propose a rapid, finite-fault inversion procedure to derive first-order estimates of the coseismic slip following large Mw > 7 earthquakes in Mexico using...     

An array of lens-coupled antennas for cosmic microwave background measurements in the 30 Ghz band

An array of bow-tie slot antennas coupled through an extended hemispherical lens is proposed to operate in the 30?GHz frequency band. The design includes a combination of three microstrip Wilkinson power dividers (WPD) and transitions to coplanar wave guides (CPW) to form the feeding antenna network. This configuration is suitable for the integration with heterodyne imaging detectors commonly used in radioastronomy. Measurements and simulation results exhibit a frequency range of operation from 20 to 40?GHz with a bandwidth of 24% achieved for ?10?dB return loss at the central frequency. The measured radiation patterns show a maximum peak gain of around 13?dB with HPBW of 10° for the E-plane, and whose first side lobes are lower than 13?dB below the main lobe in both angular shift sides. The presented results will be considered as preliminary feasibility studies in the 30?GHz QUIJOTE-CMB Instrument, which is designed to study the anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB).     

On the Centre Manifold of Collinear Points in the Planar Three-Body Problem

We study the existence of invariant tori in a neighbourhood of the collinear equilibrium points of the planar three-body problem. To this end some properties of the normal form of the Hamiltonian reduced to the 4D central manifold are proved. Using this normal form, we show that the nondegeneracy conditions of KAM theorem are satisfied for all positive masses, including the 2:1 resonance case. The evaluation of the conditions is done numerically.