Using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for finding the best rainfall-runoff model in mountainous watersheds(Case study: the Navrood watershed in Iran)

In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.     

Estimation of crowd density from UAVs images based on corner detection procedures and clustering analysis

With rapid developments in platforms and sensors technology in terms of digital cameras and video recordings, crowd monitoring has taken a considerable attentions in many disciplines such as psychology, sociology, engineering, and computer vision. This is due to the fact that, monitoring of the crowd is necessary to enhance safety and controllable movements to minimize the risk particularly in highly crowded incidents (e.g. sports). One of the platforms that have been extensively employed in crowd monitoring is unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), because UAVs have the capability to acquiring fast, low costs, high-resolution and real-time images over crowd areas. In addition, geo-referenced images can also be provided through integration of on-board positioning sensors (e.g. GPS/IMU) with vision sensors (digital cameras and laser scanner). In this paper, a new testing procedure based on feature from accelerated segment test (FAST) algorithms is introduced to detect the crowd features from UAV images taken from different camera orientations and positions. The proposed test started with converting a circle of 16 pixels surrounding the center pixel into a vector and sorting it in ascending/descending order. A single pixel which takes the ranking number 9 (for FAST-9) or 12 (for FAST-12) was then compared with the center pixel. Accuracy assessment in terms of completeness and correctness was used to assess the performance of the new testing procedure before and after filtering the crowd features. The results show that the proposed algorithms are able to extract crowd features from different UAV images. Overall, the values of Completeness range from 55 to 70 % whereas the range of correctness values was 91 to 94 %.     

On the D́ust content of nearby galaxies

By inspection of photographs of the Hubble Atlas of Galaxies the frequency distribution of the sizes of dark cloud complexes in the four nearby galaxies NGC 3031, 5128, 5194 and 5457 is derived and the total amount of dust in these systems is estimated. The frequency distribution of the clouds is nearly the same in all the considered galaxies and may be approximated by n(R) ∼ e^−kR, k ≈︂ 0.050 pc⁻¹. The total amount of dust yields to roughly 10⁶M⊙.     

HS Herculis: Not apsidal motion,but a third body

Todoran's (1992) postulate of apsidal motion to explain the observed minimum times of HS Her is shown to be physically inconsistent. Instead, a third body in the system is postulated. Minimum timings in the next few years can settle the matter.     

SNOW WETNESS ESTIMATES OF VEGETATED TERRAIN FROM SATELLITE PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA

The Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometer is a useful tool for monitoring snow wetness on a large scale because water content has a significant effect on the microwave emissions at the snowpack surface. To date, SSM/I snow wetness algorithms, based on statistical regression analysis, have been developed only for specific regions. Inadequate ground-based snow wetness measurements and the non-linearity between SSM/I brightness temperatures (T_Bs) and snow wetness over varied vegetation covered terrain has impeded the development of a general model. In this study, we used a previously developed linear relationship between snowpack surface wetness (% by volume) and concurrent air temperature (°C) to estimate the snow wetness at ground weather stations. The snow condition (snow free, dry, wet or refrozen snow) of each SSM/I pixel (a 37 × 29 km area at 37.0 GHz) was determined from ground-measured weather data and the T_B signature. SSM/I T_Bs of wet snow were then linked with the snow wetness estimates as an input/output relationship. A single-hidden-layer back-propagation (backprop) artificial neural network (ANN) was designed to learn the relationships. After training, the snow wetness values estimated by the ANN were compared with those derived by regression models. Results show that the ANN performed better than the existing regression models in estimating snow wetness from SSM/I data over terrain with different amounts of vegetation cover.     

Cosmic strings and strings in gravitational waves

We consider strings with the Nambu action as extremal surfaces in a given space-time, thus, we ignore their back reaction. Especially, we look for strings sharing one symmetry with the underlying space-time. If this is a non-null symmetry the problem of determining ihc motion of the string can be dimensionally reduced. We get exact solutions for the following cases: straight and circle-like strings in a Friedmann background, straight strings in an anisotropic Kasner background, different types of strings in the metric of a gravitational wave. The solutions will be discussed. Wir betrachten Strings mit der Nambu-Wirkung als Extremalflächen in einer gegebenen Raum-Zeit, d. h., wir ignorieren ihre Rückwirkung. Wir interessieren uns dabei besonders für solche Strings, die eine Isometrie mit der unterliegenden Raum-Zeit gemeinsam haben. Handelt es sich dabei um eine nicht-lichtartige Symmetrie, so läß Bt sich das Problem der Bestimmung der Stringbewegung dimensionsreduzieren. Wir erhalten exakte Lösungen für die folgenden Fälle: gerade und kreisrunde Strings im Friedmann-Hintergrund, gerade Strings im anisotropen Kasner-Hintergrund sowie verschiedene Stringtypen in der Metrik einer Gravitationswelle. Die Lösungen werden diskutiert.     

3D Static Modeling and Petrographic Aspects of the Albian/Cenomanian Reservoir,Komombo Basin,Upper Egypt

Natural Resources Research - The Albian/Cenomanian reservoir is one of the two main reservoirs composing the petroleum system in the Komombo Basin. However, these reservoirs have not previously...     

Fisher Matrix-based Predictions for Measuring the <Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis> = 3.35 Binned 21-cm Power Spectrum using the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA)

We use the Fisher matrix formalism to predict the prospects of measuring the redshifted 21-cm power spectrum in different k-bins using observations with the upcoming Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA) which will operate at 326.5 MHz. This corresponds to neutral hydrogen (HI) at z = 3.35, and a measurement of the 21-cm power spectrum provides a unique method to probe the large-scale structures at this redshift. Our analysis indicates that a 5σ detection of the binned power spectrum is possible in the k range 0.05 ≤ k ≤ 0.3 Mpc^?1 with 1000 hours of observation. We find that the signal- to-noise ratio (SNR) peaks in the k range 0.1?0.2 Mpc^?1 where a 10σ detection is possible with 2000 hours of observations. Our analysis also indicates that it is not very advantageous to observe beyond 1000 h in a single field-of-view as the SNR increases rather slowly beyond this in many of the small k-bins. The entire analysis reported here assumes that the foregrounds have been completely removed.     

Dual chromospheric flows in the vicinity of a solar pore

Chromospheric line-of-sight velocities are investigated in a small pore and its vicinity on the part of the active region NOAA 11024 with a size of 5″. We used H_α spectra of the active region and undisturbed atmosphere obtained with the French–Italian solar telescope THEMIS (Tenerife, Spain). Significant line-of-sight velocity time variations are found. At the beginning of the observations, the investigated region consisted of two areas of oppositely directed flows. The first area had a bright point in the vicinity of the pore and the second area covered the pore. There were upflows in the former and downflows in the latter. Oppositely directed flows appeared in both areas 2.7 min after the start of observations. In the part of the active region with a length of 2Mm, two oppositely directed flows within the same resolution elements, the so-called dual flows, were observed. The size of the area occupied by the dual flows varied quickly. The area shifted toward the pore. The velocity of upflows and downflows reached 25 km/s. The downflows in the first area lasted only for approximately 1 min. Upflows in the second area gradually covered the pore and lasted for 2 min. The resulting velocity field distribution can be due to a new small-scale magnetic flux emergence.     

Estimation of the Land Surface Emissivity in the Hinterland of Taklimakan Desert

An accurate accounting of land surface emissivity(ε) is important both for the retrieval of surface temperatures and the calculation of the longwave surface energy budgets.Since ε is one of the important parameterizations in land surface models(LSMs),accurate accounting also improves the accuracy of surface temperatures and sensible heat fluxes simulated by LSMs.In order to obtain an accurate emissivity,this paper focuses on estimating ε from data collected in the hinterland of Taklimakan Desert by two different methods.In the first method,ε was derived from the surface broadband emissivity in the 8–14 μm thermal infrared atmospheric window,which was determined from spectral radiances observed by field measurements using a portable Fourier transform infrared spectrometer,the mean ε being 0.9051.The second method compared the observed and calculated heat fluxes under nearneutral atmospheric stability and estimated ε indirectly by minimizing the root-mean-square difference between them.The result of the second method found a mean value of 0.9042,which is consistent with the result by the first method.Although the two methods recover ε from different field experiments and data,the difference of meanvalues is 0.0009.The first method is superior to the indirect method,and is also more convenient.