Forecasting flood-prone areas using Shannon’s entropy model

With regard to the lack of quality information and data in watersheds, it is of high importance to present a new method for evaluating flood potential. Shannon’s entropy model is a new model in evaluating dangers and it has not yet been used to evaluate flood potential. Therefore, being a new model in determining flood potential, it requires evaluation and investigation in different regions and this study is going to deal with this issue. For to this purpose, 70 flooding areas were recognized and their distribution map was provided by ArcGIS10.2 software in the study area. Information layers of altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, drainage density, distance from the river, topographic wetness index (TWI), lithology, soil type, and land use were recognized as factors affecting flooding and the mentioned maps were provided and digitized by GIS environment. Then, flood susceptibility forecasting map was provided and model accuracy evaluation was conducted using ROC curve and 30% flooding areas express good precision of the model (73.5%) for the study area.     

First discovery of fossil winged seeds of <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Pinus</Emphasis> L. (family Pinaceae) from the Indian Cenozoic and its palaeobiogeographic significance

The occurrences of Pinus L. (family Pinaceae) megafossils (cones and leaf remains) have been abundantly documented from the Cenozoic sediments of eastern Asia (Japan and China), but none has been confirmed from the Indian Cenozoic till date. Here, we describe Pinus arunachalensis Khan and Bera, sp. nov. on the basis of seed remains from the middle to late Miocene Siwalik sediments of the Dafla Formation exposed around West Kameng district in Arunachal Pradesh, eastern Himalaya. Seeds are winged, broadly oblong to oval in outline, 1.3–1.5 cm long and 0.4–0.6 cm broad (in the middle part), located basipetally and symmetrically to wing, cellular pattern of wing is seemingly undulatory and parallel with the long axis of the wing. So far, this report provides the first ever fossil record of Pinus winged seeds from India. This record suggests that Pinus was an important component of tropical-subtropical evergreen forest in the area during the Miocene and this group subsequently declined from the local vegetation probably because of the gradual intensification of MSI (monsoon index) from the Miocene to the present. We also review the historical phytogeography and highlight the phytogeographic implication of this genus.     

3D geomechanical modeling and estimating the compaction and subsidence of Fahlian reservoir formation (X-field in SW of Iran)

A geomechanical model can reveal the mechanical behavior of rocks and be used to manage the reservoir programs in a better mode. Fluid pressure will be reduced during hydrocarbon production from a reservoir. This reduction of pressure will increase the effective stress due to overburden sediments and will cause porous media compaction and surface subsidence. In some oil fields, the compacting reservoir can support oil and gas production. However, the phenomena can also cause the loss of wells and reduced production and also cause irreparable damage to the surface structures and affect the surrounding environment. For a detailed study of the geomechanical behavior of a hydrocarbon field, a 3D numerical model to describe the reservoir geomechanical characteristics is essential. During this study, using available data and information, a coupled fluid flow-geomechanic model of Fahlian reservoir formation in X-field in SW of Iran was constructed to estimate the amount of land subsidence. According to the prepared model, in this field, the maximum amount of the vertical stress is 110 MPa and the maximum amount of the horizontal stress is 94 MPa. At last, this model is used for the prediction of reservoir compaction and subsidence of the surface. The maximum value of estimated ground subsidence in the study equals to 29 mm. It is considered that according to the obtained values of horizontal and vertical movement in the wall of different wells, those movements are not problematic for casing and well production and also the surrounding environment.     

Torrential rainfall-triggered shallow landslide characteristics and susceptibility assessment using ensemble data-driven models in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed,China

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the characteristics of rainfall-triggered landslides during the Typhoon Bilis in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed, China. The comparative shallow...     

Risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the West Port semi-enclosed basin (Malaysia)

Sediment samples collected from the West Port, the west coastal waters of Malaysia, were analyzed by standard methods to determine the degree of hydrocarbon contamination and identify the sources of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Concentrations of PAHs in the port sediments ranged from 100.3 to 3,446.9 μg/kg dw. The highest concentrations were observed in stations close to the coastline, locations affected by intensive shipping activities and industrial input. These were dominated by high-molecular-weight PAHs (4–6 rings). Source identification showed that PAHs originated mostly pyrogenically, from the combustion of fossil fuels, grass, wood, and coal or from petroleum combustion. Regarding ecological risk estimation, only station 7 was moderately polluted, the rest of the stations suffered rare or slight adverse biological effects with PAH exposure in surface sediment, suggesting that PAHs are not considered as contaminants of concern in the West Port.     

Change detection and visualization of acid mine lakes using time series satellite image data in geographic information systems (GIS): Can (Canakkale) County,NW Turkey

Can, a county in the province of Canakkale, is one of the most prominent coal mining districts in Turkey. Many mining companies have been operating coal deposits for power generation and district heating in this region since 1980. Generally, small and medium-scale mining companies operate for short periods and abandon the operational land without providing any rehabilitation. Human intervention in the natural structure and topography of the earth surface causes large holes and deterioration in these areas. Artificial lakes occur because of surface discharge and underground leakage into abandoned open pit mines with high lignite sulfur content (0.21–14.36 wt %). Furthermore, these lakes gain acidic character due to acid generation from pyrite oxidation. Acid mine lakes are highly acidic (pH < 3.05) and have elevated concentrations of \({\text{SO}}_{4}^{2 - }\) , Fe and some metals. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the environmental conditions and demonstrate the development of a monitoring system for their possible changes in the acid mine lakes of the open cast lignite mining area on a regional scale. For this purpose, the data received from remote sensing satellites were used. Areal change detection and perimeter changes of nine acid mine lakes caused by coal mining companies in Can from 1977 to 2011, were determined using Landsat, Quickbird and Worldview satellite images. As a case study, an area of 9 km² was chosen for the variety of acid mine lakes. Using GIS software, satellite images were analyzed in time series, borders of acid mine lakes were digitized and converted into vector data format. At this stage, prior to the digitization, in order to create contrast on the satellite images, “stretch type” and “stretch values” were changed. The areal and perimeter changes were computed and presented via tables and graphics. In addition, thematic maps of the acid mine lakes were created and visualized. The results show that the number of acid mine lakes increased and these caused environmental risks due to their hydrochemical properties and areal increments.     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

Late Quaternary marine terraces in the Mediterranean coastal area of Syria: Geochronology and neotectonics

In order to provide new data on the neotectonics and geodynamic properties of western Syria, studies of marine terraces have been carried out. The most attention was paid to the lower terraces in the range of 3–5 to 30–35 m above sea level, because they have more complete distributions along the shore. The lower terraces were examined along the coastal area from Tartus to Latakia, and along the carbonate cliff on Arwad Island. Seven ²³⁰Th/U dates for these terraces are in the range of 85–130 ka, suggesting the age interval of the last interglacial (MIS 5). New dates on the lower terraces provide a basis for stratigraphical and geomorphological interpretation as well as neotectonic reconstruction. According to the geomorphological data and lithological composition of those terraces, two main uplifted blocks can be established. One coincides with the Latakia block, and another corresponds to the western margin of the Banias volcanic plateau. These blocks are divided by a subsided structure corresponding to the Nahr el Kebir graben. The amplitude of neotectonic uplifting in the Latakia and Banias blocks reaches 15–20 m for the Late Pleistocene.     

A probabilistic model to improve reconciliation of estimated and actual grade in open-pit mining

Many of the open-pit mines suffer from the lack of reconciliation between estimated and actual grades. In a mining operation, grade reconciliation is the comparison between the values of the estimated grade calculated in exploration stage and the actual grade obtained from more reliable data such as blast holes?? samples. Many different factors affect the degree of reconciliation in a mining operation. In this paper, the factors related to estimated grade which affect the reconciliation process in the exploration stage of the orebody are investigated. These factors constitute the sources of uncertainty for the upcoming phases of the mining life. Among these parameters, the inherent variability, statistical uncertainty, and systematic uncertainty are the most important factors. In this work, these parameters are studied in further detail, and, accordingly, for each of these uncertainties, a correction factor is determined in the proposed model. The model was applied to the study of real data taken from an iron open-pit mine in Iran. The results of the case study indicated that the systematic uncertainty, inherent variability, and statistical uncertainty are, in order, the main sources of uncertainty on grade reconciliation process. Applying the correction factors to estimated grade values has increased the amount of grade reconciliation from 10%, at original condition, to 50%, at new condition, in the case study.     

Environmental impacts of bench blasting at Hisarcik Boron open pit mine in Turkey

This paper presents the results of ground vibration measurements carried out in Hisarcik Boron open pit mine located on the west side of central Anatolia near Kütahya province in Turkey. Within the scope of this study to predict peak particle velocity (PPV) level for this site, ground vibration components were measured for 304 shots during bench blasting. In blasting operations, ANFO (blasting agent), gelatin dynamite (priming), and delay electric detonators (firing) were used as explosives. Parameters of scaled distance (charge quantity per delay and the distance between the source and the station) were recorded carefully and the ground vibration components were measured for all blast events using two different types of vibration monitors (one White Mini-Seis and one Instantel Minimate Plus Model). The absolute distances between shot points and monitor stations were determined using GPS. The equation of square root scaled distance extensively used in the literature was taken into consideration for the prediction of PPV. Then, the data pairs of scaled distance and particle velocity obtained from the 565 event records were analyzed statistically. At the end of statistical evaluation of the data pairs, an empirical relation which gives 50% prediction line with a reasonable correlation coefficient was established between PPV and scaled distance.