Simulation/optimization modeling for robust pumping strategy design

A new simulation/optimization modeling approach is presented for addressing uncertain knowledge of aquifer parameters. The Robustness Enhancing Optimizer (REO) couples genetic algorithm and tabu search as optimizers and incorporates aquifer parameter sensitivity analysis to guide multiple-realization optimization. The REO maximizes strategy robustness for a pumping strategy that is optimal for a primary objective function (OF), such as cost. The more robust a strategy, the more likely it is to achieve management goals in the field, even if the physical system differs from the model. The REO is applied to trinitrotoluene and Royal Demolition Explosive plumes at Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon to develop robust least cost strategies. The REO efficiently develops robust pumping strategies while maintaining the optimal value of the primary OF-differing from the common situation in which a primary OF value degrades as strategy reliability increases. The REO is especially valuable where data to develop realistic probability density functions (PDFs) or statistically derived realizations are unavailable. Because they require much less field data, REO-developed strategies might not achieve as high a mathematical reliability as strategies developed using many realizations based upon real aquifer parameter PDFs. REO-developed strategies might or might not yield a better OF value in the field.     

Reducing long-term remedial costs by transport modeling optimization

The Department of Defense (DoD) Environmental Security Technology Certification Program and the Environmental Protection Agency sponsored a project to evaluate the benefits and utility of contaminant transport simulation-optimization algorithms against traditional (trial and error) modeling approaches. Three pump-and-treat facilities operated by the DoD were selected for inclusion in the project. Three optimization formulations were developed for each facility and solved independently by three modeling teams (two using simulation-optimization algorithms and one applying trial-and-error methods). The results clearly indicate that simulation-optimization methods are able to search a wider range of well locations and flow rates and identify better solutions than current trial-and-error approaches. The solutions found were 5% to 50% better than those obtained using trial-and-error (measured using optimal objective function values), with an average improvement of approximately 20%. This translated into potential savings ranging from 600,000 dollars to 10,000,000 dollars for the three sites. In nearly all cases, the cost savings easily outweighed the costs of the optimization. To reduce computational requirements, in some cases the simulation-optimization groups applied multiple mathematical algorithms, solved a series of modified subproblems, and/or fit "meta-models" such as neural networks or regression models to replace time-consuming simulation models in the optimization algorithm. The optimal solutions did not account for the uncertainties inherent in the modeling process. This project illustrates that transport simulation-optimization techniques are practical for real problems. However, applying the techniques in an efficient manner requires expertise and should involve iterative modification to the formulations based on interim results.     

Volcanic Markers of the Post-Subduction Evolution of Baja California and Sonora, Mexico: Slab Tearing Versus Lithospheric Rupture of the Gulf of California

The study of the geochemical compositions and K-Ar or Ar-Ar ages of ca. 350 Neogene and Quaternary lavas from Baja California, the Gulf of California and Sonora allows us to discuss the nature of their mantle or crustal sources, the conditions of their melting and the tectonic regime prevailing during their genesis and emplacement. Nine petrographic/geochemical groups are distinguished: ??regular?? calc-alkaline lavas; adakites; magnesian andesites and related basalts and basaltic andesites; niobium-enriched basalts; alkali basalts and trachybasalts; oceanic (MORB-type) basalts; tholeiitic/transitional basalts and basaltic andesites; peralkaline rhyolites (comendites); and icelandites. We show that the spatial and temporal distribution of these lava types provides constraints on their sources and the geodynamic setting controlling their partial melting. Three successive stages are distinguished. Between 23 and 13 Ma, calc-alkaline lavas linked to the subduction of the Pacific-Farallon plate formed the Comondú and central coast of the Sonora volcanic arc. In the extensional domain of western Sonora, lithospheric mantle-derived tholeiitic to transitional basalts and basaltic andesites were emplaced within the southern extension of the Basin and Range province. The end of the Farallon subduction was marked by the emplacement of much more complex Middle to Late Miocene volcanic associations, between 13 and 7 Ma. Calc-alkaline activity became sporadic and was replaced by unusual post-subduction magma types including adakites, niobium-enriched basalts, magnesian andesites, comendites and icelandites. The spatial and temporal distribution of these lavas is consistent with the development of a slab tear, evolving into a 200-km-wide slab window sub-parallel to the trench, and extending from the Pacific coast of Baja California to coastal Sonora. Tholeiitic, transitional and alkali basalts of subslab origin ascended through this window, and adakites derived from the partial melting of its upper lip, relatively close to the trench. Calc-alkaline lavas, magnesian andesites and niobium-enriched basalts formed from hydrous melting of the supraslab mantle triggered by the uprise of hot Pacific asthenosphere through the window. During the Plio-Quaternary, the ??no-slab?? regime following the sinking of the old part of the Farallon plate within the deep mantle allowed the emplacement of alkali and tholeiitic/transitional basalts of deep asthenospheric origin in Baja California and Sonora. The lithospheric rupture connected with the opening of the Gulf of California generated a high thermal regime associated to asthenospheric uprise and emplaced Quaternary depleted MORB-type tholeiites. This thermal regime also induced partial melting of the thinned lithospheric mantle of the Gulf area, generating calc-alkaline lavas as well as adakites derived from slivers of oceanic crust incorporated within this mantle.     

The Høvsøre Tall Wind-Profile Experiment: A Description of Wind Profile Observations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

We present an analysis of data from a nearly 1-year measurement campaign performed at Høvsøre, Denmark, a coastal farmland area where the terrain is flat. Within the easterly sector upstream of the site, the terrain is nearly homogenous. This topography and conditions provide a good basis for the analysis of vertical wind-speed profiles under a wide range of atmospheric stability, turbulence, and forcing conditions. One of the objectives of the campaign was to serve as a benchmark for flow over flat terrain models. The observations consist of combined wind lidar and sonic anemometer measurements at a meteorological mast. The sonic measurements cover the first 100 m and the wind lidar measures above 100 m every 50 m in the vertical. Results of the analysis of observations of the horizontal wind-speed components in the range 10–1200 m and surface turbulence fluxes are illustrated in detail, combined with forcing conditions derived from mesoscale model simulations. Ten different cases are presented. The observed wind profiles approach well the simulated gradient and geostrophic winds close to the simulated boundary-layer height during both barotropic and baroclinic conditions, respectively, except for a low-level jet case, as expected. The simulated winds are also presented for completeness and show good agreement with the measurements, generally underpredicting the turning of the wind in both barotropic and baroclinic cases.     

Assessing the long-term variability of Venus winds at cloud level from VIRTIS–Venus Express

The Venus Express (VEX) mission has been in orbit to Venus for more than 4 years now. The Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) instrument onboard VEX observes Venus in two channels (visible and infrared) obtaining spectra and multi-wavelength images of the planet that can be used to sample the atmosphere at different altitudes. Day-side images in the ultraviolet range (380 nm) are used to study the dynamics of the upper cloud at 66–72 km while night-side images in the near infrared (1.74 μm) map the opacity of the lower cloud deck at 44–48 km. Here we present a long-term analysis of the global atmospheric dynamics at these levels using a large selection of orbits from the VIRTIS-M dataset covering 860 Earth days that extends our previous work (Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2008]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L13204) and allows studying the variability of the global circulation at the two altitude levels. The atmospheric superrotation is evident with equatorial to mid-latitudes westward velocities of 100 and 60 m s^?1 in the upper and lower cloud layers. These zonal velocities are almost constant in latitude from the equator to 50°S. From 50°S to 90°S the zonal winds at both cloud layers decrease steadily to zero at the pole. Individual cloud tracked winds have errors of 3–10 m s^?1 with a mean of 5 m s^?1 and the standard deviations for a given latitude of our zonal and meridional winds are 9 m s^?1. The zonal winds in the upper cloud change with the local time in a way that can be interpreted in terms of a solar tide. The zonal winds in the lower cloud are stable at mid-latitudes to the tropics and present variability at subpolar latitudes apparently linked to the activity of the South polar vortex. While the upper cloud presents a net meridional motion consistent with the upper branch of a Hadley cell with peak velocity v = 10 m s^?1 at 50°S, the lower cloud meridional motions are less organized with some cloud features moving with intense northwards and southwards motions up to v = ±15 m s^?1 but, on average, with almost null global meridional motions at all latitudes. We also examine the long-term behavior of the winds at these two vertical layers by comparing our extended wind tracked data with results from previous missions.     

Slow cooling versus episodic fluid injections: Deciphering the Caledonian orogeny in Vestvågøy,Lofoten islands,Norway

The determination of the thermal (temperature–time) histories of high‐P metamorphic terranes has been commonly based on the concepts of slow cooling and closure temperatures. In this paper, we find that this approach cannot reconcile a geochronological data set obtained from the amphibolite‐facies allochthonous Leknes Group of the Lofoten islands, Norway, which reveals an extremely complex thermal history. Using detailed results from several different geochronometers such as ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, Rb–Sr and U–Pb, we show that a model invoking multiple, short‐lived thermal pulses related to hot‐fluid infiltration channelized by shear zones can reconcile this complicated data set. This model suggests that hot fluids infiltrated throughout basement shear zones and affected the overlying cold allochthon, partially resetting U/Pb rutile and titanite ages, crystallizing new zircon and produced identical ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and Rb/Sr ages in muscovite, biotite and amphibole in various rocks throughout the region. This paper shows the enormous potential of coupling laser Ar‐spot data with thermal modelling to identify and constrain the duration of short‐lived events. An optimal P–T–t history has been derived by modelling the age data from a previously dated large muscovite crystal (Hames & Andresen, 1996, Geology, 24 :1005) and using Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry which is consistent with all geochronological data and geological constraints from the basement zones and allochthon cover. This tectonothermal model history suggests that there have been three episodic hot‐fluid and ⁴⁰Ar‐free infiltration events, resulting in the total resetting of Ar ages during the Scandian (425 Ma) for 1 Ma at 650°C and two reheating events at 415 Ma for 400 ka at 650°C and at 365 Ma for 50 ka at 600°C, which are modelled as thermal spikes above an ambient temperature of 300°C. Independent confirmation of these parameters was provided by Pb‐diffusion modelling in rutile and titanite. The model suggests that the amphibolite facies rocks of the Leknes Group probably remained cold before being exhumed for at least 60 Ma (425–365 Ma) and successfully explains the presence of different minerals that crystallized or were totally/partially reset in the allochthon and in the basement. The migration of hot fluids for short periods of times within conduits extending through the basement and allochthon rock units is likely associated with episodic seismic activity during the Caledonian orogeny.     

Vegetation Index Methods for Estimating Evapotranspiration by Remote Sensing

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest term after precipitation in terrestrial water budgets. Accurate estimates of ET are needed for numerous agricultural and natural resource management tasks and to project changes in hydrological cycles due to potential climate change. We explore recent methods that combine vegetation indices (VI) from satellites with ground measurements of actual ET (ET_a) and meteorological data to project ET_a over a wide range of biome types and scales of measurement, from local to global estimates. The majority of these use time-series imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on the Terra satellite to project ET over seasons and years. The review explores the theoretical basis for the methods, the types of ancillary data needed, and their accuracy and limitations. Coefficients of determination between modeled ET_a and measured ET_a are in the range of 0.45–0.95, and root mean square errors are in the range of 10–30% of mean ET_a values across biomes, similar to methods that use thermal infrared bands to estimate ET_a and within the range of accuracy of the ground measurements by which they are calibrated or validated. The advent of frequent-return satellites such as Terra and planed replacement platforms, and the increasing number of moisture and carbon flux tower sites over the globe, have made these methods feasible. Examples of operational algorithms for ET in agricultural and natural ecosystems are presented. The goal of the review is to enable potential end-users from different disciplines to adapt these methods to new applications that require spatially-distributed ET estimates.     

Deconvolution of multicomponent seismic data by means of quaternions: Theory and preliminary results‡

Multicomponent seismic data are acquired by orthogonal geophones that record a vectorial wavefield. Since the single components are not independent, the processing should be performed jointly for all the components. In this contribution, we use hypercomplex numbers, specifically quaternions, to implement the Wiener deconvolution for multicomponent seismic data. This new approach directly derives from the complex Wiener filter theory, but special care must be taken in the algorithm implementation due to the peculiar properties of quaternion algebra. Synthetic and real data examples show that quaternion deconvolution, either spiking or predictive, generally performs superiorly to the standard (scalar) deconvolution because it properly takes into account the vectorial nature of the wavefields. This provides a better wavelet estimation and thus an improved deconvolution performance, especially when noise affects differently the various components.     

Influence of substrate tectonic heritage on the evolution of composite volcanoes: Predicting sites of flank eruption, lateral collapse, and erosion

This paper aims to aid understanding of the complicated interplay between construction and destruction of volcanoes, with an emphasis on the role of substrate tectonic heritage in controlling magma conduit geometry, lateral collapse, landslides, and preferential erosion pathways. The influence of basement structure on the development of six composite volcanoes located in different geodynamic/geological environments is described: Stromboli (Italy), in an island arc extensional tectonic setting, Ollagüe (Bolivia–Chile) in a cordilleran extensional setting, Kizimen (Russia) in a transtensional setting, Pinatubo (Philippines) in a transcurrent setting, Planchon (Chile) in a compressional cordilleran setting, and Mt. Etna (Italy) in a complex tectonic boundary setting. Analogue and numerical modelling results are used to enhance understanding of processes exemplified by these volcanic centres. We provide a comprehensive overview of this topic by considering a great deal of relevant, recently published studies and combine these with the presentation of new results, in order to contribute to the discussion on substrate tectonics and its control on volcano evolution. The results show that magma conduits in volcanic rift zones can be geometrically controlled by the regional tectonic stress field. Rift zones produce a lateral magma push that controls the direction of lateral collapse and can also trigger collapse. Once lateral collapse occurs, the resulting debuttressing produces a reorganization of the shallow-level magma migration pathways towards the collapse depression. Subsequent landslides and erosion tend to localize along rift zones. If a zone of weakness underlies a volcano, long-term creep can occur, deforming a large sector of the cone. This deformation can trigger landslides that propagate along the destabilized flank axis. In the absence of a rift zone, normal and transcurrent faults propagating from the substrate through the volcano can induce flank instability in directions respectively perpendicular and oblique to fault strike. This destabilization can evolve to lateral collapse with triggering mechanisms such as seismic activity or magmatic intrusion.