Analyzing state-dependent model–data comparison in multi-regime systems

An approach to analyze regime change in spatial time series datasets is followed and extended to jointly analyze a dynamical model depicting regime shift and observational data informing the same process. We analyze changes in the joint model–data regime and covariability within each regime. The method is applied to two observational datasets of equatorial sea surface temperature (TAO/TRITON array and satellite) and compared with the predicted data by the ECCO-JPL modeling system.     

Identification of arid phases during the last 50 cal. ka BP from the Fuentillejo maar‐lacustrine record (Campo de Calatrava Volcanic Field,Spain)

Geochemical (element analysis, molecular analysis of organic compounds), physical, palynological, mineralogical and sedimentary facies analysis were performed to characterise the sedimentary record in Fuentillejo maar‐lake in the Central Spanish Volcanic Field of Campo de Calatrava, in order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic processes which controlled vegetation patterns and deposition of different sedimentary facies. The upper 20 m of core FUENT‐1 show variations in clastic input, water chemistry, vegetation and organic fraction sources in the lake throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The temporal framework provided by ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry dating allows assigning the sequence to the last 50 cal. ka BP. Arid phases identified in the FUENT‐1 sequence are correlated to Heinrich events (HE) and to stadials of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) cycles. Siliciclastic facies with high magnetic susceptibility values, high Juniperus pollen content, a low Paq index (aquatic macrophysics proxy index), a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkanes are indicative of arid and colder climatic events related to HE 2, HE 1 and the Younger Dryas (YD). Similar short cold and arid phases during the Holocene were identified at 9.2–8.6, 7.5–7 and 5.5–5 cal. ka BP. In dolomite–mud facies, the pollen data show an increase in the herbs component, mainly – Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra – steppe taxa; a low Paq index, a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ alkane and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkane are also observed. This facies was probably the result of lower lake levels and more saline–alkaline conditions, which can be interpreted as linked to arid–warm periods. These warm and arid phases were more frequent during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the interstadials of MIS 2. HE 4, HE 2, HE 1 and the YD in core FUENT‐1 were immediately followed by increases of warm steppe pollen assemblages that document rapid warming similar to the D/O cycles but do not imply increasing humidity in the area. Fuentillejo hydrology is controlled by changes in the atmospheric and oceanic systems that operated on the North Atlantic region at millennial scale during the last 50 cal. ka BP. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

La frana di Grassura (Fraz. di Cravagliana) in Val Mastellone

Riassunto Breve descrizione ed analisi dei movimenti franosi verificatisi a Grassura (Cravagliana) nel Gennaio e nel Marzo 1947.

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Summary Short report on the rockfalls occured at Grassura (Cravagliana) in January and March 1947.

     

Discriminant analysis as a method of predicting mineral occurrence potentials in central Norway

The statistical technique of discriminant analysis is used to define target areas for detailed general exploration given only general geological information and aeromagnetic anomaly blues. In the test area, located in Central Norway, on-going exploration surveys have revealed the presence of mineralization; however, it still has not been determined if any of the sites will beeconomically feasible. The area was divided into 1400 1-km × 1-km cells by superimposing square grid on 1:50,000-scale geological and geophysical maps. Later the area was divided into two subareas based on major differences in each area's geology. A number of geological natures and the aeromagnetic anomaly values were coded systematically in each cell. The cells representing an advanced degree of exploration were chosen as control cells in each of the subareas. The geological and geophysical parameters were transformed, by means of relatively simple transformations, to produce near-normal frequency distributions. A discriminant function was then obtained by discriminant analysis to divide the control data into two groups, cells with presence of mineral occurrence and cells without mineral occurrence. the discriminant function obtained for the control area proved to be relevant both geologically and statistically. Consequently, the discriminant equation was applied to cells outside the control area. The cells were assigned to one of the two groups by entering the geologic factors pleasured from the maps into the discriminant model. The exploration potential of a large number of cells was evaluated by this procedure. To test the results, field work including geochemical sampling was carried out in the cells with highest probability of mineral occurrance The field work results have shown that the application of discriminant analysis to geological information at 1:50,000 scale with 1-km × 1-km cells combined with a careful selection of techniques for transforming the variables is a feasible method for predicting gaeralization, and as such could become a valuable tool for mining exploration.This paper was presented at Symposium 116.3, Quantitative Strategy for Exploration, held as part of the 25th International Geological Congress, Sydney, Australia, August 1976.     

The classical tests of cosmology with a simple Kantowski-Sachs model

The classical tests of cosmology are applied to a simple cosmological model based on the Kantowski-Sachs metric and the results compared with those obtained for the standard model, based on the FRW metric. It is seen that for a large class of KS models the observations will not be able to distinguish between these models and the standard model. Some comments are also made with respect to the possibility of other tests, those involving the primordial nucleosynthesis and the generation of large scale structure, to constrain the acceptable KS models.     

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y)–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.     

The Late Pleistocene distribution of vicuñas (Vicugna vicugna) and the “extinction” of the gracile llama (“Lama gracilis”): New molecular data

We present the results of a palaeogenetic analysis of two Late Pleistocene camelids originating in southern Chile. Our analysis of two mitochondrial DNA fragments (control region and cytochrome b gene) reveals that these specimens do not belong to an extinct taxon, but rather to extant vicuña (Vicugna vicugna), whose modern distribution is restricted to the extreme elevations of the Andes, more than 3500 km to the north of where these specimens originated. Our results also suggest fossil specimens from Patagonia that are currently assigned to the extinct taxon Lama gracilis, may actually belong to V. vicugna, implying a continuous distribution of the latter from the southern tip of South America to the Andes during the Final Pleistocene. The haplotypes of both specimens are not present in modern populations, suggesting a loss of genetic diversity concomitant with the contraction of the vicuña geographical distribution during the Final Pleistocene or early Holocene.     

Spectrothermography of carbonaceous particles

Spectrothermography, defined as the evaluation of thermograms of carbon evolved from heated aerosol samples, is a technique for evaluating differences in particle characteristics as they relate to emission sources and processes that modify particle evolution. Here we describe the inherent uncertainties and demonstrate the utility of this technique with an evaluation of samples that were collected with eight stage cascade impactors at three sites in Mexico City over a period of 5 months. The study was implemented with statistical analysis based on tests for goodness of fit to separate thermograms with distinctive shapes related to the relative amounts of organic and elemental carbon mass that evolves as a function of temperature. Thermograms with unique shapes were found for particles with aerodynamic diameters of 1–10, 0.56–1, 0.32–0.56 and 0.18–0.32 μm with further differentiation of curves related to the relative amounts of gasoline and diesel fuel that was combusted in the region of the three sites. The common shapes fit 32–42% of samples in each particle size range and indicate that this type of analysis can help distinguish differences in the primary sources of organic and elemental carbon.

Fluvial architecture as a response to two-layer lithospheric subsidence during the Permian and Triassic in the Iberian Basin,eastern Spain

The stratigraphy of a sedimentary basin is mainly the result of the long-term response of a depositional surface to prolonged subsidence. However, the real nature of interrelations between fluvial architecture and subsidence is still unknown. Herein, we present new data on these relationships by combining the results of detailed sedimentological field work with data acquired through automated forward modelling and backstripping for the alluvial Permian and Triassic sediments of the SE Iberian Ranges. Using this methodology, we determined tectonic subsidence of the basin by means of backstripping analysis and crust and lithospheric mantle stretching factors (δ and β, respectively) using forward modelling technique. Results indicated that a configuration of two individual and independent layers during lithospheric subsidence for each tectonic phase fit better for this time of the studied basin evolution than the assumption of subsidence due to a single layer spanning the whole lithosphere.For this study, we simplified fluvial geometries as two main types: isolated (I) and amalgamated (A), with subtypes in each case. Different order bounding surfaces (b.s.) were distinguished in the field, although we only selected those affecting the whole basin under study. These included those b.s. of clear tectonic origin, ranging from individual basin boundary-fault pulses produced over periods of approximately 1 My to those arising from major tectonic events, such as the beginning of extension in the basin, causing major changes in basin geometry over periods of 3–5 My.The comparison of δ and β values and fluvial geometries for each identified tectonic phase in the basin evolution, revealed some possible relationship between subsidence and fluvial geometry: Sections showing the most varied fluvial architectural geometries, including ribbon and nested forms, were related to higher β and δ stretching factors values indicating tectonic phases of greater stretching and subsidence. When both stretching factors were similar and close to 1, fluvial geometry was basically reduced to amalgamated geometry type. Wider ranging of fluvial geometries was associated with stages of basin development in which crust and upper mantle activities differed, that is, showing larger differences of β and δ stretching factors values. The related slope changes are proposed as the main surface control of fluvial styles.Combination of subsidence with other possible controlling factors such as avulsion rate, climate or budget of sediments, gives rise to the definitive alluvial architecture of a basin.     

Quantification of flow patterns in sheared tonalite crystal-melt mush: Application of fractal-geometry methods

Fractal-geometry-based analysis techniques offer simple and efficient ways for analyzing magmatic fabrics that are otherwise difficult to describe quantitatively. This study shows an application of two different methods on flow patterns observed in a syntectonic magmatic body injected into the lower crust. XZ and YZ rock cuts are scanned, and the scans are automatically transferred to binary patterns of mafic and felsic minerals. These are analyzed by boxcounting as well as the modified Cantor-dust method. Box-counting leads to characterization of the entire patterns, proves their fractality in two different scale ranges, and yields information about magma mingling and grain-aggregate forming processes. The modified Cantor-dust method quantifies the anisotropy of pattern complexity and represents a potentially powerful method for determination of shear sense during magmatic flow. Both methods represent useful tools specifically for analyzing diffuse magmatic fabrics and for connecting field-related studies with analyses on the microscale.