Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model

Since the mechanical properties of lava change over time, lava flows represent a challenge for physically based modeling. This change is ruled by a temperature field which needs to be modeled. MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model was developed for physically based simulations of lava flows in near real-time. We introduced an algorithm based on the Monte Carlo approach to solve the anisotropic problem. As transition rule of CA, a steady-state solution of Navier-Stokes equations was adopted in the case of isothermal laminar pressure-driven Bingham fluid. For the cooling mechanism, we consider only the radiative heat loss from the surface of the flow and the change of the temperature due to mixture of lavas between cells with different temperatures. The model was applied to reproduce a real lava flow that occurred during the 2004–2005 Etna eruption. The simulations were computed using three different empirical relationships between viscosity and temperature.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Interaction of Tectonic and Surface Geological Processes

1. Introduction to surface processesThe shape or morphology of Earth's surface is basically the result of the interplay between two competing forces - mountain building and erosion. Tectonic forces, driven by thermal energy from Earth's interior, cause the rocks of the crust to be folded, faulted and uplifted into high plateaus and mountain belts. As soon as uplift begins, the processes of erosion, driven by gravity, start to wear away the rocks. Masses of weathered rock move downhill under t…     

The generation of non aspect sensitive plasma density irregularities by field aligned drifts in the lower ionosphere

A theory of the generation of plasma density irregularities with virtually no aspect sensitivity, in the lower ionosphere at high latitudes, by electron drifts aligned with the geomagnetic field, is presented. The theory is developed through fluid equations in which the destabilising mechanism involves positive feedback from electron collisional heating. When field aligned electron drift speeds exceed a few km s^–1, this effect destabilises waves with wavelengths in excess of a few tens of metres in the lower E-region, where collisional effects are sufficiently large. Furthermore, the threshold conditions are almost independent of the wave propagation direction and the unstable waves propagate at speeds well below the ion acoustic speed. The role that this new instability may play in recent radar backscatter observations of short scale irregularities propagating in directions close to that of the geomagnetic field, in the lower E-region is also considered.     

Determination of High Field Strength Elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g−1 Levels in Geological Reference Materials by Magnetic Sector ICP-MS after HF/HClO4 High Pressure Digestion

Six low abundance rock reference materials (basalt BIR-1, dunite DTS-1, dolerite DNC-1, peridotite PCC-1, serpentine UB-N and basalt TAFAHI) have been analysed for high field strength elements (Zr, Nb, Hf, Ta, Th and U), Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g⁻¹ levels (in rock) by magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry after HF/HClO₄ high pressure decomposition. The adopted method uses only indium as an internal standard. Detection limits were found to be in the range of 0.08 to 16.2 pg ml⁻¹ in solution (equivalent to 0.08 to 16.2 ng g⁻¹ in rock). Our data for high field strength elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi for the six selected low abundance geological reference materials show general agreement with previously published data. Our Ta values in DTS-1 and PCC-1 (1.3 and 0.5 ng g⁻¹) are lower than in previously published studies, providing smooth primitive mantle distribution patterns. Lower values were also found for Tl in BIR-1, DTS-1 and PCC-1 (2, 0.4 and 0.8 ng g⁻¹). Compared with quadrupole ICP-MS studies, the proposed magnetic sector ICP-MS method can generally provide better detection limits, so that the measurement of high field strength elements, Rb, Sr, Mo, Sb, Cs, Tl and Bi at ng g⁻¹ levels can be achieved without pre-concentration, ion exchange separation or other specialised techniques.     

Bidirectional Type III Solar Radio Bursts

Bidirectional coronal type III bursts are modeled by combining a model of coronal electron heating and beam generation via time-of-flight effects with semiquantitative estimates of quasilinear relaxation. Electromagnetic emissivities are estimated by extending the recently developed theory of interplanetary type III bursts to coronal emissions, including its features of stochastic Langmuir-wave growth and three-wave interactions. The results are investigated for heating on open and closed coronal field lines and are compared with observations of normal, reverse-slope, bidirectional, and inverted-J and -U coronal type III radio bursts. Harmonic emission is predicted to dominate at plasma frequencies above roughly 100 MHz where the efficiency of fundamental emission falls off steeply, while its free-free reabsorption rises. The model also explains the observed trends in the likelihood of occurrence of normal, reverse-slope, and bidirectional coronal type III bursts.     

Seasonal Variability of Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent Using Visible Satellite Data

In this paper we use a satellite‐derived data set to explore spatial and temporal variations of snow extent across Northern Hemisphere continents during the last three decades. These weekly visible‐wavelength satellite maps of Northern Hemisphere snow extent produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration constitute the longest consistently‐derived satellite record of any environmental variable. We document the considerable intra‐annual variability of snow extent, and show that during each month, fluctuations over relatively small areas are responsible for the majority of the year‐to‐year variability. Regions that cover less than 6% of Northern Hemisphere lands north of 20°N explain 62% Ã Â Ã Â 92% of the interannual variance across the continents. On average, snow was more extensive across both Eurasia and North America from the 1970s to middle 1980s than during the late 1980s to late 1990s. During late winter, spring and summer, snow extent has decreased since the middle 1980s, while during fall to middle winter, snow extent has remained relatively constant. Accurate information on continental snow extent is critical for weather and hydrologic forecasting; for understanding hemispheric‐scale atmospheric circulation, thermal variations, and regional snow extent; and for using snow as a credible indicator of climate variability and change.     

Modelling the bar in the centre of the starburst galaxy M82

We present VLA A-array 21-cm atomic hydrogen (H  i ) absorption observed against the central region of the starburst galaxy M82 with an angular resolution of ∼1.3 arcsec (≃20 pc). These observations, together with MERLIN H  i absorption measurements, are compared with the molecular (CO) and ionized ([Ne  ii ]) gas distributions and are used to constrain the dynamics and structure of the ionized, neutral and molecular gas in this starburst.
A position–velocity diagram of the H  i distribution reveals an unusual 'hole' feature which, when previously observed in CO, has been interpreted as an expanding superbubble contained within a ring of gas in solid body rotation. However, we interpret this feature as a signature of a nearly edge-on barred galaxy. In addition, we note that the CO, H  i and [Ne  ii ] position–velocity diagrams reveal two main velocity gradients, and we interpret these as gas moving on x₁- and x₂-orbits within a bar potential. We find the best fit to the data to be produced using a bar potential with a flat rotation curve velocity v _b=140 km s⁻¹ and a total length of 1 kpc, a non-axisymmetry parameter q =0.9, an angular velocity of the bar Ω_b=217 km s⁻¹ arcsec⁻¹, a core radius R _c=25 pc, an inclination angle i =80° and a projected angle between the bar and the major axis of the galaxy φ '=4°. We also discuss the orientation of the disc and bar in M82.     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.