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121.
Alexandre?MornetEmail author Thomas?Opitz Michel?Luzi Stéphane?Loisel Bernard?Bailleul 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):1977-1995
Modeling and forecasting damage from wind storms is a major issue for insurance companies. In this article, we focus on the sensitivity of estimations of return periods for extreme events with respect to modeling assumptions and the type of input data. Numerous variables play a role: the quality of data concerning the location of insured buildings and weather report homogeneity, missing updates for correcting non-stationarities concerning the insurance portfolio history, ground roughness or climate change, the evolution of the model after an unprecedented event such as the Lothar storm observed in 1999 in Europe, temporal aggregation of daily events over several days, where events could span over several days up to one week, and storm trajectories, which could change due to global warming or sweep larger areas. Our work explores three important aspects. First, we highlight the geographic heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of wind speeds and the resulting damages. Therefore, we propose to partition the French territory into 6 relatively homogeneous storm zones, based on the dependence among observed wind speeds and geographic distance. Second, we extend a storm index—defined in Mornet et al. (Risk Anal 35:2029–2056, 2015)—to take into account geographic heterogeneity, and we analyze its tail behavior to show the difficulties met to obtain reliable results on extreme events. Third, we explore the calculation of Solvency Capital Requirements based on a model that we propose for the annual claim amount distribution. The purpose of our analysis is to quantify and to point out the high level of uncertainty in the computation of return periods and of other quantities strongly influenced by extreme events. 相似文献
122.
123.
Alexandre J. Poulain Marc Amyot Peter G.C. Campbell 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(14):3419-3431
Atmospheric mercury deposition on snow at springtime has been reported in polar regions, potentially posing a threat to coastal and inland ecosystems receiving meltwaters. However, the post-depositional fate of Hg in snow is not well known, and no data are available on Hg partitioning in polar snow. During snowmelt, we conducted a survey of Hg concentrations, partitioning and speciation in surface snow and at depth, over sea ice and over land along a 100 km transect across Cornwallis Island, NU, Canada. Total Hg concentrations [THg] in surface snow were low (less than 20 pmol L−1) and were significantly higher in marine vs. inland environments. Particulate Hg in surface snow represented up to 90% of total Hg over sea ice and up to 59% over land. At depth, [THg] at the snow/sea ice interface (up to 300 pmol L−1) were two orders of magnitude higher than at the snow/lake ice interface (ca. 2.5 pmol L−1). Integrated snow columns, sampled over sea-ice and over land, showed that particulate Hg was mostly bound to particles ranging from 0.45 to 2.7 μm. Moreover, melting snowpacks over sea ice and over lake ice contribute to increase [THg] at the water/ice interfaces. This study indicates that, at the onset of snowmelt, most of the Hg in snow is in particulate form, particularly over sea ice. Low Hg levels in surface snow suggest that Hg deposited through early spring deposition events is partly lost to the atmosphere from the snowpack before snowmelt. The sea ice/snow interface may constitute a site for Hg accumulation, however. Further understanding of the cycling of mercury at the sea ice/snow and sea ice/seawater interfaces is thus warranted to fully understand how mercury enters the arctic food webs. 相似文献
124.
A new protocol for oxygen isotope analysis of authigenic and biogenic fine silica grains using laser-extraction technique 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. Crespin A. Alexandre C. Sonzogni F. Sylvestre 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):423
We report here a 30 W CO2 laser heating protocol for analyzing oxygen isotope composition (δ18O in ‰ vs. V-SMOW) of quartz and amorphous silica grains lower than 50 and 2 μm with a good external precision (1σ < 0.15‰). This technique is used to investigate δ18O composition of macro-, micro- and crypto-crystalline quartz cements of quartzite levels occurring in a sand sequence from the South of France (Apt Series), after a physical separation of the quartz cements. δ18O data obtained from this technique are compared with δ18O data obtained from in situ ion microprobe analyses. This study also presents promising results on δ18O analysis of phytoliths obtained with the laser heating protocol (1σ < 0.1‰). 相似文献
125.
Paulo Cesar Abreu César S. B. Costa Carlos Bemvenuti Clarisse Odebrecht Wilhelm Graneli Alexandre M. Anesio 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(2):277-285
Stable isotopes ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were measured in primary producers and consumers of two bays with contrasting eutrophic conditions in the Patos Lagoon
estuary, southern Brazil: the Justino bay, a more pristine ecosystem, and the Mangueira bay, a heavily polluted region that
receives the Rio Grande city sewage and effluencts of several industries. δ13C values of organisms collected in both subsystems were not different, but δ15N values had significant statistical differences, ca. 3.5‰ higher in the Mangueira bay. It is likely that primary producers
and consumers in this subsystem are greatly influenced by higher nitrogen input due to domestic and industrial sewages. The
stable isotope analysis also corroborated several trophic interactions previously established by gut content analysis, and
due to its higher sensitivity, it was possible to better determine the contributions of different primary producers and detrital
fractions to the consumers' diets. It was confirmed that plant detritus represents the main food source for most organisms.
The stable isotope analysis also demonstrated that detritivorous benthic organisms in the same habitat have distinct diet
compositions, with differential consumption of C3 and C4 plants. This technique showed that some consumers that eat detritus
do not have in their stable isotopic signature any relationship with that of plants. It is likely that these consumers assimilate
their carbon and nitrogen from other sources like microalgae or microorganisms that colonize decaying plants. 相似文献
126.
Christian?LiebskeEmail author Alexandre?Corgne Daniel?J.?Frost David?C.?Rubie Bernard?J.?Wood 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2005,149(1):113-128
High-pressure melting experiments were performed at ~26 GPa and ~2,200–2,400°C on synthetic peridotite compositions with varying FeO and Al2O3 contents and on a synthetic CI chondrite analogue composition. Peridotite liquids show a crystallisation sequence of ferropericlase (Fp) followed down temperature by Mg-silicate perovskite (MgPv) + Fp, which contrasts a sequence of MgPv followed by MgPv + Fp observed in the chondritic composition. The difference in crystallisation sequence is a consequence of the different bulk Mg/Si ratios. MgPv/melt partition coefficients for major, minor and trace elements were determined by electron microprobe and secondary ion mass spectrometry. Partition coefficients of tri- and tetravalent elements increase with increasing Al concentration in MgPv. A lattice strain model indicates that Al3+ substitutes predominantly onto the Si-site in MgPv, whereas most elements substitute onto the Mg-site, which is consistent with a charge-compensating coupled substitution mechanism. MgPv/melt partition coefficients for Mg (DMg) and Si (DSi) are related to the melt Mg/Si ratio such that DSi becomes lower than DMg at low Mg/Si melt ratios. We use a crystal fractionation model, based on upper mantle refractory lithophile element ratios, to constrain the amount of MgPv and Ca-silicate perovskite (CaPv) that could have fractionated during a Hadean magma ocean event and could still be present as a chemically distinct heterogeneity in the lower mantle today. We show that a fractionated crystal pile composed of 96% MgPv and 4% CaPv could comprise up to 13 wt% of the entire mantle. 相似文献
127.
An axisymmetric, anelastic model of a convective cloud is described. The model comprises prognostic equations for the azimuthal vorticity, the perturbation potential temperature, the perturbation water vapor mixing ratio, 44 categories of cloud condensation nuclei, and 100 categories of liquid-phase hydrometeors. Results from a control simulation show that the model is capable to reproduce realistically the life cycle of a convective cloud including the production of warm rain.A discussion of the role of advection in bin-microphysics models is presented and sensitivity tests were performed regarding the order of advection. The results show that, although the global characteristics of all simulated clouds were similar, significant differences occur with respect to their microstructure, particularly close to the cloud edges, when the order of the advective scheme changes. The conclusion is that intermediate-order advection schemes can indeed be used in cloud-resolving simulations, as far only as the gross characteristics of the cloud/cloud system are being investigated, but not poor, low-order schemes. On the other hand, the sensitivity with respect to the advection suggests that the evaluation of cloud phenomena that occur in fine-scales, such as entrainment and certain microphysical and radiational processes, must require the use of accurate, higher-order schemes. 相似文献
128.
Alan Heavens Alexandre Refregier Catherine Heymans 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,319(2):649-656
Weak gravitational lensing is now established as a powerful method to measure mass fluctuations in the universe. It relies on the measurement of small coherent distortions of the images of background galaxies. Even low-level correlations in the intrinsic shapes of galaxies could however produce a significant spurious lensing signal. These correlations are also interesting in their own right, since their detection would constrain models of galaxy formation. Using haloes found in N -body simulations, we compute the correlation functions of the intrinsic ellipticity of spiral galaxies assuming that the disc is perpendicular to the angular momentum of the dark matter halo. We also consider a simple model for elliptical galaxies, in which the shape of the dark matter halo is assumed to be the same as that of the light. For deep lensing surveys with median redshifts ∼1, we find that intrinsic correlations of ∼10−4 on angular scales are generally below the expected lensing signal, and contribute only a small fraction of the excess signals reported on these scales. On larger scales we find limits to the intrinsic correlation function at a level ∼10−5 , which gives a (model-dependent) range of separations for which the intrinsic signal is about an order of magnitude below the ellipticity correlation function expected from weak lensing. Intrinsic correlations are thus negligible on these scales for dedicated weak lensing surveys. For wider but shallower surveys such as SuperCOSMOS, APM and SDSS, we cannot exclude the possibility that intrinsic correlations could dominate the lensing signal. We discuss how such surveys could be used to calibrate the importance of this effect, as well as study spin–spin correlations of spiral galaxies. 相似文献
129.
130.
Hugues‐Alexandre Blain César Laplana Paloma Sevilla Juan Luis Arsuaga Enrique Baquedano Alfredo Pérez‐González 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(1):107-120
The Cueva del Camino site (Pinilla del Valle, Madrid, Spain) is located in the upper valley of the Lozoya River in the Sierra de Guadarrama, a mountain range extending NE?SW within the Central Range System. Due to its location within a mountain range on the central Iberian Peninsula at an altitude of 1114 m a.s.l. and the numerical dating of its sediments, the palaeontological site of Cueva del Camino has proved a highly relevant location for studying the ecological changes linked to the climatic fluctuations at the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and the beginning of MIS 4. Environmental reconstructions suggest a rather open, patchy landscape throughout the succession, with abundant evidence of dry meadows, scrublands and rocky habitats. The climate can be considered as generally warm, reaching mean annual temperatures (MATs) of up to 13.8°C (i.e. higher than today's by up to 2.9°C). Three cooler events can be seen throughout the succession as reflected by the presence of Rana iberica, Anguis fragilis and Coronella austriaca. The first of these events may correlate with MIS 5b; the second in the Central sector may correlate with the Stadial I pollen event occurring at the end of MIS 5a; and the third event, corresponding to the coldest MAT of the entire succession with MATs 0.9°C lower than today's, may correspond to the transition from MIS 5a to MIS 4. The evolution of mean annual precipitation (MAP) is characterized by warm periods, drier and cold periods, as well as wetter periods (up to +356 mm compared to today's MAP values), similar to what occurs today in the high‐elevation areas of the neighbouring mountains. Our study gives new quantitative estimations for the climatic fluctuations in mountain environments of central Spain at the MIS 5/4 transition and their associated ecological changes. 相似文献