Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach

Abstract

Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m³/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [–30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Costa, A.C., Bronstert, A. and Kneis, D., 2012. Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25.     

Long-term evolution of the spin of Mercury: I. Effect of the obliquity and core-mantle friction

The present obliquity of Mercury is very low (less than 0.1°), which led previous studies to always adopt a nearly zero obliquity during the planet’s past evolution. However, the initial orientation of Mercury’s rotation axis is unknown and probably much different than today. As a consequence, we believe that the obliquity could have been significant when the rotation rate of the planet first encountered spin-orbit resonances. In order to compute the capture probabilities in resonance for any evolutionary scenario, we present in full detail the dynamical equations governing the long-term evolution of the spin, including the obliquity contribution.The secular spin evolution of Mercury results from tidal interactions with the Sun, but also from viscous friction at the core-mantle boundary. Here, this effect is also regarded with particular attention. Previous studies show that a liquid core enhances drastically the chances of capture in spin-orbit resonances. We confirm these results for null obliquity, but we find that the capture probability generally decreases as the obliquity increases. We finally show that, when core-mantle friction is combined with obliquity evolution, the spin can evolve into some unexpected configurations as the synchronous or the 1/2 spin-orbit resonance.     

Effects of short-term ecosystem experimental warming on water-extractable organic matter in an ombrotrophic Sphagnum peatland (Le Forbonnet, France)

In a future warmer world, peatlands may change from a carbon sink function to a carbon source function. This study tracks changes in water-extractable organic matter (WEOM) after 1 year of in situ experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs). WEOM was studied in the upper peat layers (0–10 cm) through analysis of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC), stable C isotopic composition (δ¹³C), specific UV absorbance at 280 nm and sugar composition of cores taken from an open bog (DRY sites) and a transitional poor fen (WET sites). At the DRY sites, the impact of OTCs was weak with respect to WEOM parameters, whereas at the WET sites, the air warming treatment led to a decrease in peat water content, suggesting that the supply of heat by OTCs was used mainly for evapotranspiration. OTCs at the WET sites also induced a relative enrichment at the surface (0–5 cm depth) of aliphatic and/or aromatic compounds with concomitant decrease in WEOC, as a result of decomposition. On the contrary, WEOC and sugar content increased in the deeper peat layer (7.5–10 cm depth) probably as a result of increased leaching of phenolic compounds by roots, which then inhibits microbial activity. The different response to experimental warming at DRY and WET sites suggests that the spatial variability of moisture is critical for understanding of the impact of global warming on the fate of OM and the carbon cycle in peatlands.     

Comparing English,Mandarin, and Russian hydrographic and terrain categories

The paper compares hydrographic and terrain categories in the geospatial data standards of the United States, Taiwan, and Russian Federation where the dominant languages used are from different language families. It aims to identify structural and semantic differences between similar categories across three geospatial data standards. By formalizing the data standard structures and identifying the properties that differentiate sibling categories in each geospatial data standard using well-known formal relations and quality universals, we develop a common basis on which hydrographic and terrain categories in the three data standards can be compared. The result suggests that all the three data standards structure categories with a mixture of relations even though most of them are well-known relations in top-level ontologies. Similar categories can be found across all the three standards. Cases of categories from different standards carrying identical meaning are rare. Partial overlaps in the meaning of the similar categories can be a direct result of different quality universals at work in defining and distinguishing these categories, or in the case of these categories being ordered by size, the threshold values for distinguishing the categories are ambiguous and language-dependent. Understanding these differences avoids incorrect mappings of categories in multilingual applications. More importantly, it provides a starting point for more effective mapping between hydrographic and terrain categories between English, Mandarin, and Russian.     

Storm extreme levels and coastal flood hazards: A parametric approach on the French coast of Languedoc (district of Leucate)

Coastal flooding is a significant risk on the shores of Languedoc-Roussillon. The storms that periodically hit the coast can generate strong swells and storm surges. Most beach resorts, built on a low elevation dune ridge, are periodically flooded during major storms. Although risks zoning regulations take into consideration coastal flood hazards, the delineation of vulnerable areas is still insufficient and the commonly accepted threshold is regularly exceeded during most severe storms. This paper presents a method to improve the assessment of extreme storm-related water levels. It relies on fieldwork carried out in the Leucate commune (Aude), which is particularly exposed to the risk of sea level rise. It considers both storm surges and wave phenomena that occur within the surf zone (set-up and swash), calculated from the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN^®) numerical wave model and the Stockdon formula. Water levels reached during several recent storm events have been reconstructed and simulations of submerged areas were carried out by numerical modelling.     

Constraint envelope analyses of macroecological patterns reveal climatic effects on Pleistocene mammal extinctions

Quantitative analysis of macroecological patterns for late Pleistocene assemblages can be useful for disentangling the causes of late Quaternary extinctions (LQE). However, previous analyses have usually assumed linear relationships between macroecological traits, such as body size and range size/range shift, that may have led to erroneous interpretations. Here, we analyzed mammalian datasets to show how macroecological patterns support climate change as an important driver of the LQE, which is contrary to previous analyses that did not account for more complex relationships among traits. We employed quantile regression methods that allow a detailed and fine-tuned quantitative analysis of complex macroecological patterns revealed as polygonal relationships (i.e., constraint envelopes). We showed that these triangular-shaped envelopes that describe the macroecological relationship between body size and geographical range shift reflect nonrandom extinction processes under which the large-bodied species are more prone to extinction during events of severe habitat loss, such as glacial/interglacial transitions. Hence, we provide both a theoretical background and methodological framework to better understand how climate change induces body size-biased species sorting and shapes complex macroecological patterns.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000315

The Panzhihua gabbroic intrusion,part of the plumbing system of the Emeishan large igneous province, intruded late-Proterozoic dolomites and marls about～263 Ma ago.The dolomites in the contact aureole were converted to brucite marbles and a diverse suite of forsterite,diopside and garnet skarns.The variation in mineralogy is explained in part by differences in the composition of the protolith,particularly the proportion of silica minerals and clay,and in part by transfer of elements from intruding magmas.The trace element compositions of most marbles and skarns are very similar to those of unmetamorphosed dolomites and marls,but some contain high Si,Ti,and Fe contents that are interpreted to have come from a magmatic source.Three brucite marbles sampled～10 m from the contact of the intrusion and named "enriched brucite marble" have trace element compositions very different from their dolomitic protolith:their rare earth elements are strongly enriched whereas levels of Nb-Ta,Zr-Hf and Ti are very low.These characteristics resemble those of carbonate liquid in equilibrium with silicate liquid or more probably with silicate minerals in the case of Panzhihua,a similarity we take to indicate that the sample underwent partial melting.Samples taken up to 300 m from the contact contain brucite indicating that high temperatures persisted well into the country rocks.However,other samples collected only tens of metres from the contact are only slightly recrystallized indicating that conditions in the aureole were highly variable.We suggest that temperatures within the aureole were controlled by conduction of heat from the main intrusion and by supply of additional heat from abundant small dykes within the aureole.Circulation of fluids derived from deeper levels in the aureole flushed the carbon dioxide from the dolomite,lowering temperature needed to partially melt carbonate to the temperatures attained near the intrusion.Irregular but extensive heating destabilized the carbonates of the aureole and decarbonation reactions associated with carbonate breakdown and melting emitted a large volume of CO₂,with potential impact on global climate.     

Environmental fragility evaluation and guidelines for environmental zoning: a study case on Ibiuna (the Southeastern Brazilian region)

Environmental fragility models are important decision tools for policy makers as they help quantify environmental sensitivity and understand the relationship between human activities and environmental quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate three different environmental fragility models within the Brazilian rainforest region and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes. Two rural river basins located in Ibiuna, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were studied. Input variables, including slope class, relief dissection rate, soil class, lithology, land cover, and climate data, were used to compute environmental fragility classes using three standard models. The model outputs were evaluated on their ability to accurately predict the most sensitive and least sensitive areas. The best models for each region were used to derive environmental zoning maps, including restoration priorities, best regions for agriculture, and areas with high needs for soil management. These maps will help support land use strategies for environmental restoration. This study provides insight into territorial ordering and management of environmental services with a regional perspective.