Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

New data on the Late Cenozoic basaltic volcanism in Syria,applied to its origin

New data on geology and 21 K–Ar dates of the Late Oligocene–Quaternary basalts in Syria, combined with analysis of the new and previous data are used to reconstruct the volcanic history and relations between it and tectonic events. Volcanism began at the end of Oligocene (26–24 Ma) and was concentrated in the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene along a N-trending band, which stretches from the Jebel Arab (Harrat Ash Shaam) up to Kurd Dagh and southern Turkey. Activity waned in the Middle Miocene (17–12 Ma), but was resumed in the same band in the Tortonian and increased in the Messinian and Early Pliocene (6.3–4 Ma), when volcanism spread to the Shin Plateau and its coastal extension. After a brief hiatus ～ 4–3.5 Ma, volcanism became still more intensive and spread from the N-trending band to the east into the northern margin of the Mesopotamian Foredeep and to the west into the Dead Sea Transform zone. Additional eruptions continued into the Holocene.Volcanism lasted > 25 million years in the Jebel Arab Highland and > 15 million years in the Aleppo Plateau. The long duration of volcanism in the same parts of the moving Arabian plate and absence of records of one-way migration of the activity mean that the magmatic sources moved together with the plate, i.e., they were situated within the lithosphere mantle. Coincidence of the tectonic and volcanic stages of the Arabian plate development proves that volcanic activity depended on the geodynamic situation, caused by the plate motion. Situated within the lithosphere, magmatic sources within this transverse band were possibly caused by thermal and deforming influences of the asthenospheric lateral flow, moved laterally from the Ethiopia–Afar deep superplume.     

Studying large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances according to the data of oblique-incidence sounding

The morphological features of wave-like ionospheric disturbances with periods of 1–2 h and the spatial extent exceeding 1000 km are studied. Oblique-incidence sounding data of the ionosphere, obtained in eastern Siberia during several continuous monthly experiments on three radio paths from 2006 to 2010, have been used. Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances generated during magnetic storms and large-scale wave-like ionospheric disturbances registered during geomagnetically quiet periods are considered. Small-scale ionospheric structures were also observed against a background of large-scale traveling iono-spheric disturbances considered in this study.     

Metal Concentrations in the Ecosystem and Around Recreational and Fish-Breeding Pond Bugach

Data of two field studies were used to analyze the concentrations of Na, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Al, Cr, Ni, Cd, and Pb in the water, bottom deposits, zoobenthos, fish, and macrophytes of the Pond Bugach and in the soils near the pond. It was established that the majority of metals in the soils and bottom deposits correlate and their concentrations are governed by the universal geochemical factors of the region. The heavy metals were recognized that originate from anthropogenic sources and their concentrations were found to exceed the maximum admissible values for different components of the ecosystem. Five types of heavy metals migration were recognized in the soil–bottom deposits–zoobenthos–fish chain and in macrophytes. Statistically significant difference was found to exist between the concentrations of some heavy metals in the muscles of fish species with different food types (crucian carp and perch) as well as between the correlations of metals. The recorded concentrations were compared with the concentrations of metals measured in the last decade in other limnetic ecosystems in Siberia, Europe, North America, and China.     

Derivation Of Refractive Index And Temperature Gradients From Optical Scintillometry To Correct Atmospherically Induced Errors For Highly Precise Geodetic Measurements

Refraction effects of optical beams are generally caused by an inhomogeneous propagation medium and are a major source of systematic errors in the precise optical determination of angles and distances in the atmospheric surface layer. In this contribution a method for deriving vertical temperature and refractive index gradients from optical scintillation is presented. Knowledge of these gradients is required for the compensation of atmospherically induced errors for highly precise terrestrial geodetic measurements, like direct transfer and levelling. The advantage of the present optical method is, that temperature and refractive index gradients can be derived as line-averaged values over the propagation path, which is not possible by meteorological point measurements. Field observations have been carried out with a displaced-beam scintillometer over flat terrain and under different atmospheric conditions in order to verify this method. The experiments show, that this method allows to derive accurate correction values for precise terrestrial geodetic measurements.     

Heterogenity of planetesimal collisional plume probed by glass inclusions in metal globules of Sierra Gorda 013, an unusual CBa-like chondrite

Metal-rich carbonaceous CB chondrites are generally assumed to be materials accreted from the gas–dust plume formed in catastrophic collisions of planetesimals, at least one of which was differentiated into a metal core and silicate shell. Micron-sized inclusions of siliceous alkali-rich glasses associated with sulfides were found in the metal globules of the Sierra Gorda 013 (SG 013), a CBa-like chondrite. These inclusions are unusual carriers of volatile alkalis which are commonly depleted in CB chondrites. The inclusions are presented by two types: (1) Al-bearing Nb-poor glass associated with daubréelite and (2) Nb-bearing Ca,Al,Mg-poor glass associated with an unknown Na-bearing Cr-sulfide. The glass compositions do not correspond to equilibrium condensation, evaporation, or melting. The Nb-bearing glass has a superchondritic Nb/Ta ratio (31) most likely indicating the fractionation of Nb and Ta in the high-temperature gas–dust impact plume due to condensation from vapor or evaporation of precursor Nb-rich particles. The glasses are interpreted as reaction products between refractory plume condensate particles (or possibly planetary or chondritic solids) with relatively low-temperature K-Na-Si-rich gas in oxidized conditions, possibly in a common plume vapor reservoir. Compositional differences indicate that the glasses and sulfides originated from several different sources under different fO₂, fS₂, and T conditions and were likely combined together and transported to the metal globule formation region by material flows in the heterogeneous impact plume. The glass–sulfide particles were enclosed in the globules aggregated from smaller solid or molten metal grains. The metal globules were further melted during transport to the high-temperature plume region or by plume shockwave heating. Thus, the composition of the glasses, the host metal, and the main mass of SG 013 shows dynamic heterogeneity of physical conditions and impact plume composition after a large-scale planetesimal collision.     

Strontium distribution patterns in groundwater and aquifer host rocks in the southeastern part of the Severnaya Dvina artesian basin

This study provides new data on the strontium distribution and behavior in groundwater from the Permian aquifer system, which is used for public water supply in the Velsk region of Arkhangelsk District. We used data from recent sampling of groundwater and host rocks as well as data from previous studies over the last 25 years. Measurements of exchangeable cations obtained in this study will be used in the further thermodynamic calculations and experimental observations.