Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

The Holocene–Anthropocene transition in lakes of western Spitsbergen,Svalbard (Norwegian High Arctic): climate change and nitrogen deposition

Lake sediments from four small lakes on western Spitsbergen (Svalbard Archipelago, Norwegian High Arctic) preserve biostratigraphic and isotopic evidence for a complex suite of twentieth century environmental changes. At Lake Skardtjørna and Lake Tjørnskardet on Nordenskiöldkysten, there is a marked diatom floristic change coupled to increased diatom concentrations beginning around 1920. At Lake Istjørna and Lake Istjørnelva, 25 km southwest of Longyearbyen, both diatom total valve and chrysophyte stomatocyst concentrations have increased dramatically since the beginning of the 1900s. The early twentieth century changes are probably related to climate warming after the Little Ice Age. However, the most pronounced changes in diatom assemblages seem to have occurred in the last few decades. At the same time, nitrogen stable isotopes in sediment organic matter in two of the lakes became progressively depleted by ~2‰, which is consistent with diffuse atmospheric inputs from anthropogenic sources and attendant fertilization. These data suggest that climate change and nitrogen deposition may be acting together in driving these lakes towards new ecological states that are unique in the context of the Holocene.     

Using a Bayesian estimator to combine information from a cluster analysis and remote sensing data to estimate high-resolution data for agricultural production in Germany

In Germany, a county-resolution data set that consists of 35 land-use and animal-stock categories has been used extensively to assess the impact of agriculture on the environment. However, because such environmental effects as emission or nutrient surplus depend on the location, even a county resolution might produce misleading results. The aim of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach which combines two sorts of information, with one being treated as defining the prior and the other the data to form a posterior, used to estimate a data set at a municipality resolution. We define the joint prior density function based on (i) remote sensing data, thus accounting for differences in county data and missing data at the municipality level, and (ii) the results of a cluster analysis that was previously applied to the micro-census, whereas the data are defined by official statistics at the county level. This approach results in a fairly accurate data set at the municipality level. The results, using the proposed method, are validated by the national research data centre by comparing the estimates to actual observations. The test statistics presented here demonstrate that the proposed approach adequately estimates the production activities.     

Go with the flow: geospatial analytics to quantify hydrologic landscape connectivity for passively dispersed microorganisms

Understanding the diverse ways that landscape connectivity influences the distribution of microbial species is central to managing the spread and persistence of numerous biological invasions. Here, we use geospatial analytics to examine the degree to which the hydrologic connectivity of landscapes influences the transport of passively dispersed microbes, using the invasive plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum as a case study. Pathogen occurrence was analyzed at 280 stream baiting stations across a range of watersheds – exposed to variable inoculum pressure – in California over a 7-year period (2004–2010). Using logistic regression, we modeled the probability of pathogen occurrence at a baiting station based on nine environmental variables. We developed a novel geospatial approach to quantify the hydrologic connectivity of host vegetation and inoculum pressure derived from least cost distance analyses in each watershed. We also examined the influence of local environmental conditions within the immediate neighborhood of a baiting station. Over the course of the sampling period, the pathogen was detected at 67 baiting stations associated with coastal watersheds with mild climate conditions, steep slopes, and higher levels of inoculum pressure. At the watershed scale, hydrologic landscape connectivity was a key predictor of pathogen occurrence in streams after accounting for variation in climate and exposure to inoculum. This study illustrates a geospatial approach to modeling the degree to which hydrologic systems play a role in shaping landscape structures conducive for the transport of passively dispersed microbes in heterogeneous watersheds.     

The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations

A large spread exists in both Indian and Australian average monsoon rainfall and in their interannual variations diagnosed from various observational and reanalysis products. While the multi model mean monsoon rainfall from 59 models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) fall within the observational uncertainty, considerable model spread exists. Rainfall seasonality is consistent across observations and reanalyses, but most CMIP models produce either a too peaked or a too flat seasonal cycle, with CMIP5 models generally performing better than CMIP3. Considering all North-Australia rainfall, most models reproduce the observed Australian monsoon-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection, with the strength of the relationship dependent on the strength of the simulated ENSO. However, over the Maritime Continent, the simulated monsoon-ENSO connection is generally weaker than observed, depending on the ability of each model to realistically reproduce the ENSO signature in the Warm Pool region. A large part of this bias comes from the contribution of Papua, where moisture convergence seems to be particularly affected by this SST bias. The Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship is affected by overly persistent ENSO events in many CMIP models. Despite significant wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean related to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, the monsoon-IOD relationship remains relatively weak both in the observations and in the CMIP models. Based on model fidelity in reproducing realistic monsoon characteristics and ENSO teleconnections, we objectively select 12 “best” models to analyze projections in the rcp8.5 scenario. Eleven of these models are from the CMIP5 ensemble. In India and Australia, most of these models produce 5–20 % more monsoon rainfall over the second half of the twentieth century than during the late nineteenth century. By contrast, there is no clear model consensus over the Maritime Continent.     

Fluid regime and diamond formation in the reduced mantle: Experimental constraints

The composition and potential diamond productivity of C–O–H fluids that could exist in the reduced regions of the Earth’s upper mantle and in the mantles of Uranus and Neptune were studied in experiments at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C and durations of 15–48 h. Hydrogen fugacity in the fluid phase was controlled by the Mo–MoO₂ or Fe–FeO buffers, using a specially modified double-capsule method. The oxygen fugacity in the samples was controlled by adding different amounts of water, stearic acid, anthracene, and docosane to a graphite charge. At high P–T conditions, the degree of decomposition of the heavy hydrocarbons added to the charge was 99.9%. The composition of the fluids coexisting with graphite/diamond in the buffered experiments varied from H₂O  H₂ > CH₄ (at fO₂ somewhat lower than the “water maximum”) to H₂ > CH₄ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈ (in C–H system). In the C–H system the maximum concentrations of major species in the synthesized fluid were: H₂ = 79 mol.% and CH₄ = 21 mol.%. The composition of the H₂-rich fluids, which were synthesized at 6.3 GPa and 1400–1600 °C for the first time, differs considerably from that of the ultra-reduced CH₄-rich fluids stable at 2.0–3.5 GPa and 1000–1300 °C. Thermodynamic calculations of the reduced C–O–H fluids at the P–T conditions of the experiments revealed CH₄-rich compositions (CH₄  H₂ > (C₂H₄ + C₂H₆)>C₃H₈), which however drastically differed from the synthesized compositions. The rates of diamond nucleation and growth in the experiments depended on the fluid composition. Diamond crystallization had a maximum intensity in the pure aqueous fluids, while in the H₂-rich fluids no diamond formation was observed. Only metastable graphite precipitated from the ultra-reduced fluids. The type of the initial hydrocarbon used for the fluid generation did not affect this process.     

Properties and depositional environment of the Neogene Elhovo Lignite, Bulgaria

Several Mio-Pliocene aged lignite seams occur as part of a non-marine transgressive sequence in the Elhovo graben in south-eastern Bulgaria. The present study is focused on 45 samples collected from three boreholes in the eastern part of the basin. Petrographic data along with ash and sulphur contents were used in order to determine the lateral and vertical variations of the coal facies and depositional environment of the Elhovo lignite.The lignite seams accumulated in a rheotrophic, low-lying mire with high pH value and are characterized by high ash yields and sulphur contents. Despite of the neutral to weakly alkaline environment the bacterial activity was limited and the tissue preservation and gelification were mainly controlled by the redox conditions.Vegetation rich in decay resistant conifers dominated in the Elhovo basin together with mesophytic angiosperm species. The absence of algal remains and sapropelic coal indicated that open water areas were not present during peat accumulation. The latter processed in an environment, characterized by low subsidence rate, in which prior to the burial the woods were subjected to severe mechanical destruction. According to our interpretation, the enhanced impregnation of the tissues bacteria and fungi played only a secondary role in the process of humification. The lignite from borehole 122 and partly from BH 145 deposited in an environment characterized by relatively low (ground)water table, whereas to the south an area dominated by a flooded forest swamp (BH 104) formed. This is suggested by the better tissue preservation and gelification of the organic matter in BH 104. The vertical variation of the maceral composition in the studied lignite is interpreted as a consequence of vegetational changes, rather than to changes in the depositional environment. The low contents of inertinite macerals indicate that despite of the low water level the environment was relatively wet and the thermal and oxidative destruction of the tissues was limited.Peat accumulation was terminated by a major flooding event and a short term establishment of a lake. In contrast to the West Maritsa basin, no seam formed in the Elhovo basin during the filling stage of the lake.     

High-Resolution Vertical Profile Measurements for Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour Concentrations Within and Above Crop Canopies

We present a portable elevator-based facility for measuring \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), water vapour, temperature and wind-speed profiles between the soil surface and the atmospheric surface layer above crop canopies. The end of a tube connected to a closed-path gas analyzer is continuously moved up and down over the profile range (in our case, approximately 2 m) while concentrations are logged at a frequency of \(20 \hbox { s}^{-1}\). Using campaign measurements in winter wheat, winter barley and a catch crop mixture (spring 2015 to autumn 2016) during different stages of crop development and different times of the day, we demonstrate a simple approach to correct for time lags, and the resulting profiles of 30-min mean mole fractions of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and \(\hbox {H}_{2}\hbox {O}\) over height increments of 0.025 m. The profiles clearly show the effects of soil respiration and photosynthetic carbon assimilation, varying both during the diurnal cycle and during the growing season. Profiles of temperature and wind speed are based on a ventilated finewire thermocouple and a hot-wire anemometer, respectively. Measurements over bare soil and a short plant canopy were analyzed in the framework of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to check the validity of the measurements and raw-data-processing approach. Derived fluxes of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), latent and sensible heat and momentum show good agreement with eddy-covariance measurements.     

Climate stability and the development of agricultural societies

Although Modern Man had developed long before the migration from Africa began ～ 55,000 years ago no agricultural societies developed until about ～ 10,000 years ago. In the next 5,000 years agricultures developed independently in at least six regions of the world. It is virtually certain that it was not a chance occurrence that so many new agricultures appeared in the same 5,000 years. What inhibited agriculture world wide for 44,000 years and what changed ～ 10,000 years ago? Here we suggest that a major factor influencing the development of agricultural societies was climate stability. From the experience of four cultures we estimate that the development of agriculture needed ～ 2,000 years of climate free from significant climate variations on time scales of a few centuries. Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique specifically designed to exhibit the time history of the amplitude of variations in non-stationary time series such as climate proxy records, we find that between 50,000 years ago and the termination of the Younger Dryas ～ 11,600 years ago there was probably no time span as long as 2,000 years that was free of relatively large century scale variations. Furthermore variations on these time scales appear to have been relatively small since the Younger Dryas (YD) ended, supporting our proposition concerning the importance of climate stability in the history of human culture.     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.