Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

2018 International Summer School on rockslides and related phenomena in the Kokomeren River valley (Kyrgyzstan)

Information about the next Kokomeren Summer School that will take place on August 15–30, 2018, is provided.     

Built environment and agricultural value at risk from Hurricane Irma flooding in Florida (USA)

Natural Hazards - Flooding is the most costly type of natural disaster, as well as the most frequent. To provide risk-based flood insurance, providers must be able to accurately determine an...     

Oxygen and Al‐Mg isotopic compositions of grossite‐bearing refractory inclusions from CO3 chondrites

The distribution of the short‐lived radionuclide ²⁶Al in the early solar system remains a major topic of investigation in planetary science. Thousands of analyses are now available but grossite‐bearing Ca‐, Al‐rich inclusions (CAIs) are underrepresented in the database. Recently found grossite‐bearing inclusions in CO3 chondrites provide an opportunity to address this matter. We determined the oxygen and magnesium isotopic compositions of individual phases of 10 grossite‐bearing CAIs in the Dominion Range (DOM) 08006 (CO3.0) and DOM 08004 (CO3.1) chondrites. All minerals in DOM 08006 CAIs as well as hibonite, spinel, and pyroxene in DOM 08004 are uniformly ¹⁶O‐rich (Δ¹⁷O = ?25 to ?20‰) but grossite and melilite in DOM 08004 CAIs are not; Δ¹⁷O of grossite and melilite range from ~ ?11 to ~0‰ and from ~ ?23 up to ~0‰, respectively. Even within this small suite, in the two chondrites a bimodal distribution of the inferred initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratios (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ is seen, with four having (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ ≤1.1 × 10^?5 and six having (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ ≥3.7 × 10^?5. Five of the ²⁶Al‐rich CAIs have (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ within error of 4.5 × 10^?5; these values can probably be considered indistinguishable from the “canonical” value of 5.2 × 10^?5 given the uncertainty in the relative sensitivity factor for grossite measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry. We infer that the ²⁶Al‐poor CAIs probably formed before the radionuclide was fully mixed into the solar nebula. All minerals in the DOM 08006 CAIs, as well as spinel, hibonite, and Al‐diopside in the DOM 08004 CAIs retained their initial oxygen isotopic compositions, indicating homogeneity of oxygen isotopic compositions in the nebular region where the CO grossite‐bearing CAIs originated. Oxygen isotopic heterogeneity in CAIs from DOM 08004 resulted from exchange between the initially ¹⁶O‐rich (Δ¹⁷O ~?24‰) melilite and grossite and ¹⁶O‐poor (Δ¹⁷O ~0‰) fluid during hydrothermal alteration on the CO chondrite parent body; hibonite, spinel, and Al‐diopside avoided oxygen isotopic exchange during the alteration. Grossite and melilite that underwent oxygen isotopic exchange avoided redistribution of radiogenic ²⁶Mg and preserved undisturbed internal Al‐Mg isochrons. The Δ¹⁷O of the fluid can be inferred from O‐isotopic compositions of aqueously formed fayalite and magnetite that precipitated from the fluid on the CO parent asteroid. This and previous studies suggest that O‐isotope exchange during fluid–rock interaction affected most CAIs in CO ≥3.1 chondrites.     

Baja California 边缘PC14 岩芯海水表层温度及生产力变化的百年尺度记录

加利福尼亚流是北太平洋环流的重要组成部分,它的变化对全球气候及碳循环有重要影响.对位于东北太平洋低纬区BajaCalifornia外海的PC14柱状样进行了有机地球化学分析,重建了过去14ka来这一地区百年尺度的海水表面温度及生产力变化,发现其存在明显的B/A(Bling-Aller)和YD(Younger Drays)事件,但B/A和YD事件温度变化幅度小于中纬度地区.与中纬度加利福尼亚流系早中全新世温度降低不同,PC14全新世温度无明显变化趋势.这些结果表明了东太平洋低纬地区对高纬地区的气候响应以及沿岸上升流和ENSO现象对加利福尼亚流系中纬和低纬地区的影响不同.从冰消期到全新世,PC14生产力呈现阶段上升趋势,指示了由E1 Nino气候向La Nifia气候的转化以及沿岸上升流加强的总体趋势.在全新世中后期(6.5-3.8ka)生产力的降低,则可能是受ENSO加强的影响.在B/A暖期,PC14生产力增加不多,但氧最小层强度增加,这表明生产力变化不是东太平洋边缘海的氧最小层强化的控制因素.     

Improved magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic lithosphere from satellite and near-surface data

The Antarctic magnetic anomaly map compiled marine and airborne surveys collected south of 60°S through 1999 and used Magsat data to help fill in the regional gaps between the surveys. Ørsted and CHAMP satellite magnetic observations with greatly improved measurement accuracies and temporal and spatial coverage of the Antarctic, have now supplanted the Magsat data. We combined the new satellite observations with the near-surface survey data for an improved magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic lithosphere. Specifically, we separated the crustal from the core and external field components in the satellite data using crustal thickness variations estimated from the terrain and the satellite-derived free-air gravity observations. Regional gaps in the near-surface surveys were then filled with predictions from crustal magnetization models that jointly satisfied the near-surface and satellite crustal anomalies. Comparisons in some of the regional gaps that also considered newly acquired aeromagnetic data demonstrated the enhanced anomaly estimation capabilities of the predictions over those from conventional minimum curvature and spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models. We also noted that the growing number of regional and world magnetic survey compilations involve coverage gaps where these procedures can contribute effective near-surface crustal anomaly estimates.     

Fractionation of grain size in terrestrial sediment routing systems

Sediment is fractionated by size during its cascade from source to sink in sediment routing systems. It is anticipated, therefore, that the grain size distribution of sediment will undergo down‐system changes as a result of fluvial sorting processes and selective deposition. We assess this hypothesis by comparing grain size statistical properties of samples from within the erosional source region with those that have undergone different amounts of transport. A truncated Pareto distribution describes well the coarser half of the clast size distribution of regolith, coarse channel bed sediment and proximal debris flows (particularly their levees), as well as the coarser half of the clast size distribution of gravels that have undergone considerable amounts of transport in rivers. The Pareto shape parameter a evolves in response to mobilization, sediment transport and, importantly, the selective extraction of particles from the surface flow to build underlying stratigraphy. A goodness of fit statistic, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov vertical difference, illustrates the closeness of the observed clast size distributions to the Pareto, Weibull and log‐normal models as a function of distance from the depositional apex. The goodness of fit of the particle size distribution of regolith varies with bedrock geology. Bedload sediment at catchment outlets is fitted well by the log‐normal and truncated Pareto models, whereas the exponential Weibull model provides a less good fit. In the Eocene Escanilla palaeo‐sediment routing system of the south‐central Pyrenees, the log‐normal and truncated Pareto models provide excellent fits for distances of up to 80 km from the depositional apex, whereas the Weibull fit progressively worsens with increasing transport distance. A similar trend is found in the Miocene–Pliocene gravels of the Nebraskan Great Plains over a distance of >300 km. Despite the large fractionation in mean grain size and gravel percentage from source region to depositional sink, particle size distributions therefore appear to maintain log‐normality over a wide range of transport distance. Use of statistical models enables down‐system fractionation of sediment released from source regions to be better understood and predicted and is a potentially valuable tool in source‐to‐sink approaches to basin analysis.