Dynamic propagation criteria for catastrophic failure in planar landslides

Quantitative assessment of the risk of submarine landslides is an essential part of the design process for offshore oil and gas developments in deep water, beyond the continental shelf. Landslides may be triggered by a reduction in shear strength of subsea sediments over a given zone, caused for example by seismic activity. Simple criteria are then needed to identify critical conditions whereby the zone of weakness could grow catastrophically to cause a landslide. A number of such criteria have been developed over the last decade, based either on ideas drawn from fracture mechanics, or considering the equilibrium of the initial weakened zone and adjacent process zones of gradually softening material. Accounting for the history of the weak zone initiation is critical for derivation of reliable propagation criteria, in particular considering dynamic effects arising from accumulating kinetic energy of the failing material, which will allow the failure to propagate from a smaller initial zone of weakened sediments. Criteria are developed here for planar conditions, taking full account of such dynamic effects, which are shown to be capable of reducing the critical length of the softened zone by 20% or more compared with criteria based on static conditions. A numerical approach is used to solve the governing dynamic equations for the sliding material, the results from which justify assumptions that allow analytical criteria to be developed for the case where the initial softening occurs instantaneously. The effect of more gradual softening is also explored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Signals and Annual Cycles Revealed by Wavelet Analysis

Interdecadal variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and annual cycles appearing in the sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind in the equatorial Pacific during 1950–1997 are studied by wavelet, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. The typical timescale of ENSO is estimated to be about 40 months before the late 1970s and 48–52 months after that; the timescale increased by about 10 months. The spatial pattern of the ENSO signal appearing in SST also changed in the 1970s; before that, the area of strong signal spread over the extratropical regions, while it is confined near the equator after that. The center of the strongest signal shifted from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to the South American coast at that time. These SST fluctuations near the equator are associated with fluctuations of zonal wiond, whose spatial pattern also shifted considerably eastward at that time. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, amplitudes of annual cycles of SST are weak in El Niño years and strong in La Niña years. This relation is not clear, however, in the 1980s and 1990s.     

Three-dimensional forward and backward modelling of diapirism: numerical approach and its applicability to the evolution of salt structures in the Pricaspian basin

Numerical studies of ductile deformations induced by salt movements have, until now, been restricted to two-dimensional (2D) modelling of diapirism. This paper suggests a numerical approach to model the evolution of three-dimensional (3D) salt structures toward increasing maturity. This approach is also used here to restore the evolution of salt structures through successive earlier stages. The numerical methodology is applied to study several model examples. We analyse a model of salt diapirs that develop from an initial random perturbation of the interface between salt and its overburden and restore the evolved salt diapirs to their initial stages. We show that the average restoration errors are less than 1%. An evolutionary model of a 2D salt wall loaded by a 2D pile of sediments predicts a decomposition of the salt wall into 3D diapiric structures when the overburden of salt is supplied by 3D synkinematic wedge of sediments. We model salt extrusion feeding a gravity current over the depositional surface and estimate an average rate of extrusion and horizontal velocity of salt spreading. Faulting of the overburden to salt overhangs initiates new secondary diapirs, and we analyse the growth of these secondary diapirs. We also study how lateral flow effects the evolution of salt diapirs. The shape of a salt diapir can be very different if the rate of horizontal flow is much greater than the initial rate of diapiric growth solely due to gravity. We discuss the applicability of the results of the models to the evolution of Late Permian salt structures in the Pricaspian basin (Russia and Kazakhstan). These structures are distinguishable into a variety of styles representing different stages of growth: salt pillows, diapirs, giant salt massifs, 2D diapiric walls and 3D stocks complicated by large overhangs. The different sizes, shapes and maturities of salt structures in different parts of the Pricaspian basin reflect areal differences in salt thickness and loading history. Our results suggest that the numerical methodology can be employed to analyse the evolution of all salt structures that have upbuilt through younger ductile overburdens.     

The Geography of Italian Pasta

Pasta is as much an institution as a food in Italy, where it has made a significant contribution to national culture. Its historical geography is one of strong regional variations based on climate, social factors, and diffusion patterns. These are considered herein; a taxonomy of pasta types is presented and illustrated in a series of maps that show regional variations. The classification scheme divides pasta into eight classes based on morphology and, where appropriate, filling. These include the spaghetti and tubular families, pasta shells, ribbon forms, short pasta, very small or “micropasta” types, the ravioli family of filled pasta, and the dumpling family, which includes gnocchi. Three patterns of diffusion of pasta types are identified: by sea, usually from the Mezzogiorno and Sicily, locally through adjacent regions, and outwards from the main centers of adoption. Many dry pasta forms are native to the south and center of Italy, while filled pasta of the ravioli family predominates north of the Apennines. Changes in the geography of pasta are reviewed and analyzed in terms of the modern duality of culture and commercialism.     

Unique Marine Olenekian-Anisian Boundary Section from South Primorye, Russian Far East

INTRODUCTION LateOlenekianandAnisianmarinedepositsin SouthPrimoryewerefirststudiedbyD.L.Ivanov,thechiefofageologicalteammakingreconnaissance workfortheconstructionofthetrans Siberianrail road.HecollectedEarlyandMiddleTriassicam monoidsonRussianIsland.Arep…     

TiO2 exsolution from garnet by open-system precipitation: evidence from crystallographic and shape preferred orientation of rutile inclusions

We investigated rutile needles with a clear shape preferred orientation in garnet from (ultra) high-pressure metapelites from the Kimi Complex of the Greek Rhodope by electron microprobe, electron backscatter diffraction and TEM techniques. A definite though complex crystallographic orientation relationship between the garnet host and rutile was identified in that Rt[001] is either parallel to Grt<111> or describes cones with opening angle 27.6° around Grt<111>. Each Rt[001] small circle representing a cone on the pole figure displays six maxima in the density plots. This evidence together with microchemical observations in TEM, when compared to various possible mechanisms of formation, corroborates a precipitate origin. A review of exchange vectors for Ti substitution in garnet indicates that rutile formation from garnet cannot occur in a closed system. It requires that components are exchanged between the garnet interior and the rock matrix by solid-state diffusion, a process we refer to as “open-system precipitation” (OSP). The kinetically most feasible reaction of this type will dominate the overall process. The perhaps most efficient reaction involves internal oxidation of Fe²⁺ to Fe³⁺ and transfer from the dodecahedral to the octahedral site just vacated by $ {\text{Ti}}^{ 4+ }: 6\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 3} {\text{TiAl}}\left[ {{\text{AlSi}}_{ 2} } \right]{\text{O}}_{ 1 2} + 6\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 2, 5} {\text{TiAlSi}}_{ 3} {\text{O}}_{ 1 2} = 10\,{\text{M}}^{ 2+ }_{ 3.0} {\text{Al}}_{ 1. 8} {\text{Fe}}_{0. 2} {\text{Si}}_{ 3} {\text{O}}_{ 1 2} + {\text{M}}^{2+} + 2 {\text{e}}^{-} + 1 2\,{\text{TiO}}_{ 2} . $ OSP is likely to occur at conditions where the transition of natural systems to open-system behaviour becomes apparent, as in the granulite and high-temperature eclogite facies.     

Employment in retailing: A case study of employment in suburban shopping centres

There have been many studies of the retail industry in recent years, and of the impact that retailing has had on the spatial arrangement of urban areas and on consumer behaviour. Little attention has been paid, however, to employment in retailing, which is disturbing in view of its growing importance and its rapidly changing nature and composition. This paper examines the nature of the broad structural changes within the industry, and investigates their spatial consequences through a case study of employment generation within a system of suburban retail centres in Canberra, Australia. It is shown that the evolution of suburban centres, particularly those of a regional variety, has had an important and enriching impact on the suburban labour market. The regional centres are also seen to be the focus of the major structural employment changes currently affecting the retail industry. This has some important implications for urban planning.     

Inundation and flow properties of a runoff-generated debris flow following successive high-severity wildfires in northern Arizona,USA

Burned slopes are susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows in the years following wildfire due to reductions in vegetation cover and soil infiltration capacity. Debris flows can pose serious threats to downstream communities, so quantifying variations in flow properties along debris-flow runout paths is needed to improve both conceptual and quantitative models of debris-flow behaviour to help anticipate and mitigate the risk associated with these events. Changes in flow properties along the runout paths of the runoff-generated debris flows that follow fire may be particularly dramatic, since they initiate when a water-dominated flow rapidly entrains sediment and later transition back to a water-dominated flow once they reach greater drainage areas and lower slopes. Here, we study the properties of a debris flow that initiated 1 month following the 2022 Pipeline Fire in northern Arizona, USA. We categorized flow type into two classes, granular debris flow and muddy debris flow, along the 7-km runout path and examined how flow properties varied between the phases. Changes in channel gradient and confinement likely facilitated the transition between the flow phases, which were characterized by significant differences in maximum clast size, but similar clay content and fine fractions. We also found that the volume and runout distance of the debris flow were 28 and six times greater, respectively, than that of a debris flow that initiated in the same watershed following a fire 12 years earlier. We attribute these differences to the combined effects of two high-severity fires, suggesting that consideration of recent fire history could improve post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. Results of this study provide quantitative constraints on changes in post-fire debris-flow properties along a runout path. Data collected in this study add to a small number of debris-flow inundation datasets that can be used to test runout models in post-fire settings.     

Laboratory Exploration of Solar Energetic Phenomena

The solar atmosphere displays a wide variety of dynamic phenomena driven by the interaction of magnetic fields and plasma. In particular, plasma jets in the solar chromosphere and corona, coronal heating, solar flares and coronal mass ejections all point to the presence of magnetic phenomena such as reconnection, flux cancellation, the formation of magnetic islands, and plasmoids. While we can observe the signatures and gross features of such phenomena we cannot probe the essential physics driving them, given the spatial resolution of current instrumentation. Flexible and well-controlled laboratory experiments, scaled to solar parameters, open unique opportunities to reproduce the relevant unsteady phenomena under various simulated solar conditions. The ability to carefully control these parameters in the laboratory allows one to diagnose the dynamical processes which occur and to apply the knowledge gained to the understanding of similar processes on the Sun, in addition directing future solar observations and models. This talk introduces the solar phenomena and reviews the contributions made by laboratory experimentation.     

Household and community responses to impacts of climate change in the rural hills of Nepal

The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities.