Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change

This article examines the disconnect between predictions about climate change and dominant geopolitical framings of the future. To begin, we introduce four popular geopolitical models of the world. We then show how climate change is a critical variable when considering the future of international politics. Focusing on the specific issues of water availability, agricultural productivity, coastal impacts, and shipping routes, we discuss the implications of predicted changes in the wake of climate change for the assumptions on which these scenarios are built. We show that work linking climate change and geopolitics has clear implications for the ways in which the future geopolitical (dis)order is conceptualized, and we argue that the failure to incorporate this work into geopolitical scenario-planning represents a significant limitation to their utility. We offer some direction for a re-conceptualization of the future based on a more dynamic and flexible approach to geopolitics that recognizes the disruptions posed by climatic and other environmental changes.     

Hydrothermal synthesis of pyrochlores and their characterization

Pyrochlores, microlites, and U-betafites of pyrochlore group minerals were obtained from mixing experiments of the corresponding oxides and fluorides by hydrothermal synthesis at T = 800 °C and P = 200 MPa in the solution of 1.0 M NaF. The presence of U⁴⁺ in pyrochlore does not affect the cell parameter, which for the phases of pyrochlore–microlite series is 10.42 ± 0.01 Å. In a system with an excess of UO₂, pyrochlores and microlites, containing uranium up to 0.2–0.3 atoms per formula unit (apfu), are formed. In the uranium-free system of betafites composition, perovskites and Ti-bearing pyrochlores are formed. U-pyrochlores of betafite series, containing 2Ti = Nb + Ta in moles, have cubic cell parameters of 10.26 ± 0.02 Å and U⁴⁺ isomorphic capacity of 0.4–0.5 apfu. In the pyrochlore structure, U⁴⁺ may substitute for Ca²⁺ and Na⁺ cations in the eightfold site. In pyrochlores of pyrochlore–microlite series, Ca²⁺ is replaced by U⁴⁺, while in pyrochlores of betafite series, U⁴⁺ replaces Na⁺. Phases with pyrochlore structure, containing U⁵⁺ and U⁶⁺ in the sixfold site, usually occupied by Nb⁵⁺, Ta⁵⁺, and Ti⁴⁺, are formed under oxidizing conditions (Cu–Cu₂O buffer). They are characterized by low content of Nb⁵⁺, Ta⁵⁺ (<0.1 apfu), and anomalous behavior of the crystal lattice (compression, instead of expansion). Under natural conditions, the formation of pyrochlores containing a significant amount of U⁵⁺ and U⁶⁺ is unlikely.     

Hydraulic routing of extreme floods in a large ungauged river and the estimation of associated uncertainties: a case study of the Damodar River, India

Many developing countries are very vulnerable to flood risk since they are located in climatic zones characterised by extreme precipitation events, such as cyclones and heavy monsoon rainfall. Adequate flood mitigation requires a routing mechanism that can predict the dynamics of flood waves as they travel from source to flood-prone areas, and thus allow for early warning and adequate flood defences. A number of cutting edge hydrodynamic models have been developed in industrialised countries that can predict the advance of flood waves efficiently. These models are not readily applicable to flood prediction in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, however, due to lack of data, particularly terrain and hydrological data. This paper explores the adaptations and adjustments that are essential to employ hydrodynamic models like LISFLOOD-FP to route very high-magnitude floods by utilising freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model, available topographical maps and sparse network of river gauging stations. A 110 km reach of the lower Damodar River in eastern India was taken as the study area since it suffers from chronic floods caused by water release from upstream dams during intense monsoon storm events. The uncertainty in model outputs, which is likely to increase with coarse data inputs, was quantified in a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to demonstrate the level of confidence that one can have on such flood routing approaches. Validation results with an extreme flood event of 2009 reveal an encouraging index of agreement of 0.77 with observed records, while most of the observed time series records of a 2007 major flood were found to be within 95 % upper and lower uncertainty bounds of the modelled outcomes.     

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.     

Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of the infiltration of tertiary treated wastewater in a dune area, Belgium

Managed artificial recharge (MAR) is a well-established practice for augmentation of depleted groundwater resources or for environmental benefit. At the St-André MAR site in the Belgian dune area, groundwater resources are optimised through re-use of highly treated wastewater by means of infiltration ponds. The very high quality of the infiltration water sets this system apart from other MAR systems. The low total dissolved solid (TDS) content in the infiltration water (less than 50 mg/L) compared to the dune aquifer (500 mg/L) triggers a number of reactions, increasing the TDS through soil-aquifer passage. Multi-component reactive transport modelling was applied to analyse the geochemical processes that occur. Carbonate dissolution is the main process increasing the TDS of the infiltration water. Oxic aquifer conditions prevail between the infiltration ponds and the extraction wells. This is driven by the high flow velocities, leaving no time to consume O₂ between the ponds and extraction wells. Cation exchange is important when infiltration water is replaced by native dune water or when significant changes in infiltration-water quality occur. The seasonal variation of O₂ and temperature in the infiltration water are the main drivers for seasonal changes in the concentration of all major ions.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000327

The Panzhihua intrusion in southwest China is part of the Emeishan large igneous province and host of a large Fe-Ti-V ore deposit.In previous interpretations it was considered to be a layered,differentiated sill with the ore deposits at its base.New structural and petrological data suggest instead that the intrusion has an open S-shape,with two near-concordant segments joined by a discordant dyke-like segment. During emplacement of the main intrusion,multiple generations of mafic dykes invaded carbonate wall rocks,producing a large contact aureole.In the central segment,magmatic layering is oriented oblique to the walls of the intrusion.This layering cannot have formed by crystal settling or in-situ growth on the floor of the intrusion;instead we propose that it resulted from inward solidification of multiple,individually operating,convection cells.Ore formation was triggered by interaction of magma with carbonate wall rocks.     

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961–2000) and future (2046–2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961–2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21^st century.     

Khatyrka,a new CV3 find from the Koryak Mountains,Eastern Russia

A new meteorite find, named Khatyrka, was recovered from eastern Siberia as a result of a search for naturally occurring quasicrystals. The meteorite occurs as clastic grains within postglacial clay‐rich layers along the banks of a small stream in the Koryak Mountains, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of far eastern Russia. Some of the grains are clearly chondritic and contain Type IA porphyritic olivine chondrules enclosed in matrices that have the characteristic platy olivine texture, matrix olivine composition, and mineralogy (olivine, pentlandite, nickel‐rich iron‐nickel metal, nepheline, and calcic pyroxene [diopside‐hedenbergite solid solution]) of oxidized‐subgroup CV3 chondrites. A few grains are fine‐grained spinel‐rich calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions with mineral oxygen isotopic compositions again typical of such objects in CV3 chondrites. The chondritic and CAI grains contain small fragments of metallic copper‐aluminum‐iron alloys that include the quasicrystalline phase icosahedrite. One grain is an achondritic intergrowth of Cu‐Al metal alloys and forsteritic olivine ± diopsidic pyroxene, both of which have meteoritic (CV3‐like) oxygen isotopic compositions. Finally, some grains consist almost entirely of metallic alloys of aluminum + copper ± iron. The Cu‐Al‐Fe metal alloys and the alloy‐bearing achondrite clast are interpreted to be an accretionary component of what otherwise is a fairly normal CV3 (oxidized) chondrite. This association of CV3 chondritic grains with metallic copper‐aluminum alloys makes Khatyrka a unique meteorite, perhaps best described as a complex CV3 (ox) breccia.     

A petrogenetic model for the comagmatic origin of chassignites and nakhlites: Inferences from chlorine‐rich minerals,petrology, and geochemistry

Twelve samples belonging to the chassignite and nakhlite subgroups of Martian meteorites were investigated using a variety of micro‐beam analytical techniques to gain insight into the petrogenesis of these two meteorite classes. There are a striking number of geochemical similarities between the chassignites and nakhlites, including mineralogy and petrology, crystallization age, cosmic‐ray exposure age, and radiogenic isotopic compositions. However, there are also geochemical differences, namely in trace element systematics of pyroxenes, that have led some authors to conclude that the nakhlites are comagmatic with each other, but not comagmatic with the chassignites. On the basis of data presented here, we propose a model in which these differences can be reconciled by the addition of an exogenous Cl‐rich fluid to the chassignite‐nakhlite magma body shortly after the formation of the cumulate horizon that was sampled by the Chassigny meteorite. This model is supported by the textural and chemical associations of the volatile‐bearing minerals apatite, amphibole, and biotite, which record a history starting with the addition of a Cl‐ and LREE‐enriched fluid to the magma body. As the magma continued to crystallize, it eventually reached chloride saturation and degassed a Cl‐rich fluid phase. Depending on the provenance of the Cl‐rich fluid, this model could explain how the chassignites and nakhlites originated from an LREE‐depleted source, yet all exhibit LREE‐enriched bulk‐rock patterns. Additionally, the model explains the range in oxygen fugacity that is recorded by the chassignites and nakhlites because eventual exsolution and loss of Cl‐rich fluid phases near the end of crystallization of the nakhlite sequence leads to auto‐oxidation of the magma body due to the preferential partitioning of Fe²⁺ into the fluid phase.