Testing and calibrating parametric wave transformation models on natural beaches

To provide coastal engineers and scientists with a detailed inter-comparison of widely used parametric wave transformation models, several models are tested and calibrated with extensive observations from six field experiments on barred and unbarred beaches. Using previously calibrated (“default”) values of a free parameter γ, all models predict the observations reasonably well (median root-mean-square wave height errors are between 10% and 20%) at all field sites. Model errors can be reduced by roughly 50% by tuning γ for each data record. No tuned or default model provides the best predictions for all data records or at all experiments. Tuned γ differ for the different models and experiments, but in all cases γ increases as the hyperbolic tangent of the deep-water wave height, H_o. Data from two experiments are used to estimate empirical, universal curves for γ based on H_o. Using the new parameterization, all models have similar accuracy, and usually show increased skill relative to using default γ.     

Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)

Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations.The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.     

Understanding different perspectives on the preservation of community and heritage buildings in the Wellington Region,New Zealand

The Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquake sequence of 2010–2012 caused unexpectedly extreme levels of damage and disruption, being an unparalleled event in New Zealand in terms of the damage extent. Christchurch’s heritage buildings were seriously damaged during these events, with churches especially affected in 22 February 2011 M _w 6.2 earthquake. During this earthquake, a total of 84% of the heritage unreinforced stone and 81% of the clay brick masonry churches in the Canterbury region were either considered unsafe (receiving red placards) or with restricted access (yellow placards). Following the earthquakes, authorities across New Zealand are reassessing the capacity of older buildings to resist earthquakes. Current legislation requires that a building judged as earthquake prone either be strengthened by retrofitting or be demolished within a legislated number of years. Many building owners are facing the problems of owning earthquake-prone buildings and lacking the funding to upgrade. This affects both community and heritage buildings, resulting in the likely abandonment or demolition of some buildings. To address the problem of the balance between life safety and preservation in the Wellington Region, this project gathered and compared the perspectives of the general public, church communities, heritage specialists, professional engineers, and local authorities to assist in balancing the interests of these stakeholders. As a result of the findings, several recommendations have been provided that include standardizing structural assessment processes and training, feasibility of additional public funding to upgrade buildings, new signage to increase public awareness of earthquake-prone buildings, and regular communication among stakeholders to understand and resolve differences.     

Radionuclides transport at the site of a low- and intermediate-level waste repository,Saligny, Romania

The site of the future Saligny low- and intermediate-level waste repository presents a rather deep unsaturated zone consisting of a pile of loess and clay, underlain by a calcareous aquifer. Van Genuchten parameters were first estimated in laboratory on samples collected from all the horizons, at different depths. In a second kind of test, moisture parameters were estimated from the natural water content profiles, observed in some wells, by inversion of the unsaturated flow equation. Based on the solution of the inverse problem as well as of the sensitivity analyses a simple physical model of the vadose zone was determined, consisting of a layered sequence that was subjected to a constant infiltration flux. Radionuclide migration was simulated in a vertical cross section made along the most probable path from the repository towards the surface water discharge zone. For radionuclide release, a source term was evaluated by ensuring a conservative estimate of cell inventory during the cell-filling operation. According to the simulation results, for the medium half-life nuclides, the unsaturated zone is a perfect barrier, whereas the long half-life isotopes break through in the aquifer at significant concentrations.

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Resumen El sitio del futuro repositorio para desechos de nivel bajo e intermedio, denominado Saligny, presenta una zona no saturada bastante profunda, consistente en un depósito de loess y arcilla, subyacido por un acuífero calcáreo. Los parámetros de Van Genuchten se estimaron por primera vez en laboratorio, a partir de muestras recolectadas de todos los horizontes, a diferentes profundidades. En un segundo tipo de prueba se estimaron los parámetros de humedad a través de la inversión de la ecuación de flujo no saturado, a partir de los perfiles naturales que contienen agua, observados en algunos pozos. Con base en la solución del problema inverso, así como también en análisis de sensibilidad, se determinó un modelo físico simple de la zona vadosa, el cual consiste de una secuencia estratificada sometida a un flujo de infiltración constante. La migración del radioisótopo fue simulada en una sección vertical, hecha a lo largo del camino más probable entre el repositorio y la zona de descarga en el agua superficial. Para la liberación del radioisótopo se evaluó la fuente, asegurando un estimativo conservador del inventario de celdas durante la operación de llenado de celdas. De acuerdo con los resultados de la simulación, para los isótopos con vida media intermedia, la zona no saturada es una barrera perfecta; mientras que los isótopos con vida media larga irrumpen en el acuífero con concentraciones importantes.

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Résumé Le futur stockage de déchets radioactifs de faible et moyenne activité de Saligny est caractérisé par une zone non-saturée assez profonde qui consiste dans des dépôts de loess et dargile qui couvrent un aquifère calcaire. Dans une première étape, les paramètres de van Genuchten ont été déterminés en laboratoires sur des échantillons prélevés de toutes les couches, à des profondeurs différentes. Dans une seconde étape les mêmes paramètres ont été estimés, comme un solution du problème inverse à partir de profils de la saturation en eau, mesurés dans des forages. Les résultats du problème inverse, ainsi que l› analyse de sensibilité ont mené à un modèle multi- couches de la zone non-saturé, rechargé par un flux constant. On a simulé le transport des radionucléides dans une coupe verticale, construite au long du trajet le plus probable entre le stockage et les eaux de surface. Le flux de radionucléides relâchés a été estimé en considérant une valeur consevative pour la masse totale stocké. D› après les résultats de la simulation la zone non saturée forme une barrière presque parfaite pour les radionucléides de période moyenne, denvirons de 30 ans, tendis quelle est traversée avec des concentrations assez importantes par des isotopes à grande période.

     

Non-crossing nonlinear regression quantiles by monotone composite quantile regression neural network,with application to rainfall extremes

The goal of quantile regression is to estimate conditional quantiles for specified values of quantile probability using linear or nonlinear regression equations. These estimates are prone to “quantile crossing”, where regression predictions for different quantile probabilities do not increase as probability increases. In the context of the environmental sciences, this could, for example, lead to estimates of the magnitude of a 10-year return period rainstorm that exceed the 20-year storm, or similar nonphysical results. This problem, as well as the potential for overfitting, is exacerbated for small to moderate sample sizes and for nonlinear quantile regression models. As a remedy, this study introduces a novel nonlinear quantile regression model, the monotone composite quantile regression neural network (MCQRNN), that (1) simultaneously estimates multiple non-crossing, nonlinear conditional quantile functions; (2) allows for optional monotonicity, positivity/non-negativity, and generalized additive model constraints; and (3) can be adapted to estimate standard least-squares regression and non-crossing expectile regression functions. First, the MCQRNN model is evaluated on synthetic data from multiple functions and error distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. MCQRNN outperforms the benchmark models, especially for non-normal error distributions. Next, the MCQRNN model is applied to real-world climate data by estimating rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves at locations in Canada. IDF curves summarize the relationship between the intensity and occurrence frequency of extreme rainfall over storm durations ranging from minutes to a day. Because annual maximum rainfall intensity is a non-negative quantity that should increase monotonically as the occurrence frequency and storm duration decrease, monotonicity and non-negativity constraints are key constraints in IDF curve estimation. In comparison to standard QRNN models, the ability of the MCQRNN model to incorporate these constraints, in addition to non-crossing, leads to more robust and realistic estimates of extreme rainfall.