Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Nullarbor 018: A new L6 chondrite from Australia

Abstract— A new meteorite find from the Nullarbor Plain in Australia was studied using optical, SEM, and electron microprobe techniques. The meteorite, Nullarbor 018, is an orthodox L6 chondrite that experienced minor-to-moderate alteration of metal during terrestrial weathering (grade A–B to B). During weathering, troilite was preferentially altered, and roughly 20% of the original complement of S in the meteorite was removed. Shock metamorphic effects corresponding to shock stage S4 (or shock facies d) are found, including the presence of some diaplectic feldspar (maskelynite). The meteorite is not obviously paired with other finds from the Nullarbor region, but the possibility that it is paired cannot be excluded.     

Saturn's satellites: Nuar-infrared spectrophotometry (0.6–2.5 μm) of the leading and trailing sides and compositional implications

Near-infrared spectra, 0.65–2.5 μm, are presented for Tethys, Dione, Rhea, Iapetus, and Hyperion. Water ice absorptions at 2.0, 1.5, and 1.25 μm are seen in the spectra of all five objects (except the 1.25-μm band was not detected in spectra of Hyperion) and the weak 1.04-μm ice absorption is detected on the leading and trailing sides of Rhea, and the trailing side of Dione. Upper limits to the 1.04-μm ice band depth are <0.3% for the leading side of Dione; <0.7% for the leading side of Iapetus, and the trailing side of Tethys; <1% on the trailing side of Iapetus; and <5% on the leading side of Tethys. The leading-trailing side ice band depth differences on Saturn's satellites are similar to those for the Galilean satellites, indicating possible surface modification by magnetospheric charged particle bombardment. Limits are determined for the amount of particulates, trapped gases, and amonium hydroxide on the surface. The surfaces of Saturn's satellites (except the dark side of Iapetus) are nearly pure water ice, with probably less than about 1 wt% particulate minerals. The ice could be clathrates with as much as a few weight percent trapped gases. The upper limit of amonium hydroxide depends on the spectral data precision and varies from ～ 1 wt% NH₃ for the leading side of Rhea to ～ 10 wt% NH₃ for Dione.     

Lithium isotope fractionation in the southern Cascadia subduction zone

We present lithium (Li) abundances and isotope compositions for a suite of anhydrous olivine tholeiites (HAOTs) and hydrous basalt-andesitic (BA) lavas from the Mt. Shasta and Medicine Lake regions, California. The values of δ⁷Li vary from + 0.9‰ to + 6.4‰ and correlate inversely with distance from the trench. These data are consistent with continuous isotope fractionation of Li during dehydration of the subducted oceanic lithosphere, an interpretation corroborated by uniformly high pre-eruptive H₂O contents in basaltic andesites accompanied by high Li, Rb, Sr, Ba and Pb abundances. The subduction-derived component that was added to these hydrous magmas is shown to be very similar beneath both Mt. Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes despite characteristically distinct Li isotope compositions in the magmas themselves. More evolved andesites and dacites from Mt. Shasta have δ⁷Li from + 2.8 to + 6.9‰ which is identical with the range obtained for HAOTs and BA lavas from Mt. Shasta. Therefore, Li isotopes do not provide evidence for any other crustal component admixed to Mt. Shasta andesites or dacites during magmatic differentiation and magma mixing in the crust.     

Evaluation ofCitrullus colocynthis, a desert plant native in Israel, as a potential source of edible oil

Citrulus colocynthis(wild gourd) is a desert plant of the Cucurbitaceae, naturally adapted to arid environments. It was known in biblical times as a source of seed oil and its fruits were used as an efficient laxative. Accessions were collected in Israel and evaluated as a potential oil seed crop adapted to arid zones. It was found that its oil composition is similar to safflower oil, with a total of 80-85% unsaturated fatty acids. A potential yield of oil of 250-400 l ha⁻¹was calculated. The best yield was obtained during the first 4 weeks of the 10-week maturation period. Yield potential should be estimated under desert conditions in order to evaluate the plant's economic future as a crop suitable for an arid environment.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds

Forest clearing and conversion to cattle pasture in the lowland Amazon region has been linked to soil compaction and increased soil water storage, which combine to diminish soil infiltration, enhance quick lateral flows and increase the stream flow response to precipitation. Quantifying the importance of quick surficial flow in response to this land use change requires identification of water sources within catchments that contribute to stream flow. Using an end member mixing analysis approach, potential contributing sources of stream flow were evaluated during an entire rainy season in a forest and a pasture watershed drained by ephemeral‐to‐intermittent streams in the south‐western Amazon. Water yield was 17% of precipitation in the pasture and 0·8% of precipitation in the forest. During the early rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and soil water contributed 79%, 18%, and 3%, respectively, to total forest stream flow. Over the entire rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and shallow soil water provided 57%, 24%, and 19%, respectively, of stream flow. In the pasture watershed, overland flow dominated stream flow both in the early (67%) and late (57%) rainy season, with a mean contribution of 60% overland flow, 35% groundwater, and 5% soil water. The uncertainty associated with those estimates was studied using a Monte Carlo approach. In addition to large changes in total surface flow, marked differences were found in the proportions of total stream flow in the second half of the rainy season between the forest and pasture watershed. These results suggest that (1) there is great potential for alteration of the hydrological budgets of larger watersheds as the proportion of deforested land in the Amazon increases, and (2) as more rainfall is diverted into fast flowpaths to streams in established pastures, the potential to deliver water with higher solute concentrations generated by erosion or by bypassing sites of solute removal increases. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic structure of the tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis in NW Scottish sea lochs

The tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis has a patchy distribution around the UK, being found in sheltered waters below 20 m depth on the northwest coast of Scotland and Ireland. The limited distribution and sensitivity to bottom fishing activities make F. quadrangularis vulnerable to reduction in population numbers that may lead to genetic isolation and reduced diversity. Because of this vulnerability and low resilience to physical disturbance, the tall sea pen is recognised as a Species of Principle Importance under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act, 2006, UK. ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/16/contents ) and is also on the Biodiversity Action Plan list of Priority Species for the UK. In the Mediterranean it is recognised as a sensitive and essential fish habitat because it forms habitat for several commercially important crustaceans. The aim of this study was to understand the current state of the genetic structure and gene flow of F. quadrangularis in areas of NW Scotland. We developed 10 microsatellite markers and used them to genotype 176 samples from four populations. Overall, our results suggest that there is high genetic diversity and high gene flow between colonies of F. quadrangularis in and among locations in Loch Linnhe and Loch Duich. As a result of the high rates of gene flow, genetic differentiation between sites was low. This may provide resilience to human impacts if distant populations have a high connectivity. However, care must be taken, as small but significant isolation by distance was found between the most geographically distant sites and only a small part of the species range was examined in this study. The genetic tools developed here will provide a foundation for wider studies of this vulnerable species.