Confidence and Trust in Public Institution Natural Hazards Management: Case Studies in Urban and Rural China

This research aims to investigate the extent to which urban and rural residents trust grassroots-level institutions and how this might affect community resilience to environmental change in China. It focuses on the commitments of institutional actors and their capacities to manage natural hazards and coordinate the community's response. Semistructured interviews were conducted with megacity (Tianjin) and remote village (Wolong) residents in China. We found that public confidence in grassroots-level institutions is limited due to inherent constraints on resources and power. Residents of Wolong tend to recognize the commitment and role of those institutions in connecting individuals with one another, whereas their urban counterparts in Tianjin remain skeptical. Issues of solidarity might account for this difference. These findings will have implications for state–society cooperation and disaster risk comanagement in both urban and rural China.     

Sediment Denitrification in Two Contrasting Tropical Shallow Lagoons

Sediment denitrification was monthly evaluated in two tropical coastal lagoons with different trophic states using the ¹⁵N isotope pairing technique. Denitrification rates were very low in both environments, always <5.0 μmol N₂ m^?2 h^?1 and were not significantly different between them. Oxygen consumption varied from 426 to 4248 μmol O₂ m^?2 h^?1 and was generally three times higher in the meso-eutrophic than the oligotrophic lagoon. The low denitrification activity was ascribed to both low water NO₃ ^? concentrations (<2.0 μM) and little nitrate supply from nitrification. There was no correlation of denitrification with nitrate or ammonium fluxes. Sediments in temperate environments with similar oxygen consumption rates usually presented a higher proportion of nitrification–denitrification rates. Sediment oxygen consumption was a good predictor of sediment denitrification in both studied lagoons.     

Challenges to the development of carbon markets in China

China has introduced several pilot emission trading schemes to build the basis for a national scheme. The potential scale of this initiative raises prospects for a regional carbon trading network as a way to further engage other major Asian economies. However, the Chinese carbon markets rest upon a unique political-economic context and institutional environment that are likely to limit their development and viability. This article offers an overview of such structural economic and political constraints. Four main challenges are identified, namely, inadequate domestic demand, limited financial involvement, incomplete regulatory infrastructure, and excessive government intervention. The first two challenges concern economic dimensions and may be partially addressed by the incentives created by the newly introduced emission trading schemes. The other two are more deeply entrenched in the dominant political system and governing practice. They require fundamental changes to the ways in which the state and the market interact. The success of China's carbon market reform depends crucially on the ability of the ongoing efforts to transform the distorted state–market relationship.

Policy relevance

The burgeoning carbon markets offer opportunities for emissions mitigation at lower costs and enable circulation of a new form of capital, i.e. carbon credits, across borders. China accounts for a gigantic share of global GHG emissions and has the potential to significantly scale up these opportunities. There are clear implications for market developers and participants worldwide, including climate policy makers who attempt to link their emission trading schemes to other schemes, firms who seek to take advantage of the inexpensive carbon offsets generated in developing countries, international financial institutions who endeavour to establish their business in an emerging major carbon market, etc. This article can inform their decisions by identifying key issues that may undermine their ability to achieve these goals. Policy makers and stakeholders will benefit from this analysis, which shows how the Chinese carbon markets operate in ways that may be different from their experience elsewhere.     

A model for assessing iceberg hazard

Natural Hazards - With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to...     

Integrated cave drip monitoring for epikarst recharge estimation in a dry Mediterranean area,Sif Cave,Israel

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. The objective of this study was to evaluate water percolation through epikarst by monitoring water flow into a cave and conducting artificial irrigation and tracer experiments, at Sif Cave in Wadi Sussi, Israel from 2005 through 2007. The research is based on continuous high‐resolution direct measurements of both rainfall and water percolation in the cave chamber collected by three large PVC sheets which integrate drips from three different areas (17, 46, and 52 m²). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas. The combined measured rainfall and cave data enables estimation of recharge into the epikarst and to better understand the relationship of rainfall‐recharge. Three distinct types of flow regimes were identified: (1) ‘Quick flow’ through preferential flow paths (large fractures and conduits); (2) ‘Intermediate flow’ through a secondary crack system; and (3) ‘Slow flow’ through the matrix. A threshold of ～100 mm of rain at the beginning of the rainy season is required to increase soil water content allowing later rainfall events to percolate deeper through the soil and to initiate dripping in the cave. During winter, as the soil water content rises, the lag time between a rain event and cave drip response decreases. Annual recharge (140–160 mm in different areas in the cave) measured represents 30–35% of annual rainfall (460 mm). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A flexible nonlinear modelling framework for nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis in hydroclimatology

Parameters in a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time or is dependent on time, then the GEV‐CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Owing to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV‐CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. Copyright © 2009 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative petrology of silicates in the Udei Station (IAB) and Miles (IIE) iron meteorites: Implications for the origin of silicate-bearing irons

The textures and mineral chemistries of silicate inclusions in the Udei Station (IAB) and Miles (fractionated IIE) iron meteorites were studied using optical and electron microscopy, SEM, EMPA, and LA-ICP-MS techniques to better understand the origin of silicate-bearing irons. Inclusions in Udei Station include near-chondritic, basaltic/gabbroic, feldspathic orthopyroxenitic, and harzburgitic lithologies. In Miles, most inclusions can be described as feldspathic pyroxenite or pyroxene-enriched basalt/gabbro. The trace-element compositions of both orthopyroxene and plagioclase grains are similar in different lithologies from Udei Station; whereas in different inclusions from Miles, the compositions of orthopyroxene grains are similar, while those of clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and especially Cl-apatite are variable. Orthopyroxene in Miles tends to be enriched in REE compared to that in Udei Station, but the reverse is true for plagioclase and clinopyroxene.The data can be explained by models involving partial melting of chondritic protoliths, silicate melt migration, and redox reactions between silicate and metal components to form phosphate. The extent of heating, melt migration, and phosphate formation were all greater in Miles. Silicates in Miles were formed from liquids produced by ∼30% partial melting of a chondritic precursor brought to a peak temperature of ∼1250 °C. This silicate melt crystallized in two stages. During Stage 1, crystallizing minerals (orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, chromite, and olivine) were largely in equilibrium with an intercumulus melt that was evolving by igneous fractionation during slow cooling, with a residence time of ∼20 ka at ∼1150 °C. During Stage 2, following probable re-melting of feldspathic materials, and after the silicate “mush” was mixed with molten metal, plagioclase and phosphate fractionally crystallized together during more rapid cooling down to the solidus. In Udei Station, despite a lower peak temperature (<1180 °C) and degree of silicate partial melting (∼3-10%), silicate melt was able to efficiently separate from silicate solid to produce melt residues (harzburgite) and liquids or cumulates (basalt/gabbro, feldspathic orthopyroxenite) prior to final metal emplacement. Olivine was generally out of equilibrium with other minerals, but orthopyroxene and plagioclase largely equilibrated under magmatic conditions, and clinopyroxene in basalt/gabbro crystallized from a more evolved silicate melt.We suggest that a model involving major collisional disruption and mixing of partly molten, endogenically heated planetesimals can best explain the data for IAB and fractionated IIE silicate-bearing irons. The extent of endogenic heating was different (less for the IABs), and the amount of parent body disruption was different (scrambling with collisional unroofing for the IAB/IIICD/winonaite body, more complete destruction for the fractionated IIE body), but both bodies were partly molten and incompletely differentiated at the time of impact. We suggest that the post-impact secondary body for IAB/IIICD/winonaite meteorites was mineralogically zoned with Ni-poor metal in the center, and that the secondary body for fractionated IIE meteorites was a relatively small melt-rich body that had separated from olivine during collisional break-up.