Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO₂ concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.     

Highly reproducible quasi-mosaic crystals as optical components for a Laue lens

The realization of a Laue lens for astronomical purposes involves the mass production of a series of crystalline tiles as optical components, allowing high-efficiency diffraction and high-resolution focusing of photons. Crystals with self-standing curved diffraction planes is a valid and promising solution. Exploiting the quasi-mosaic effect, it turns out to be possible to diffract radiation at higher resolution. In this paper we present the realization of 150 quasi-mosaic Ge samples, bent by grooving one of their largest surface. We show that grooving method is a viable technique to manufacture such crystals in a simple and very reproducible way, thus compatible with mass production. Realized samples present very homogenous curvature. Furthermore, with a specific chemical etch, it is possible to fine adjust one by one the radius of curvature of the grooved samples. Realized crystals was selected for the ASI’s Laue project, that involves the implementation of a prototype of a Laue lens for hard X- and soft γ-ray astronomy.     

3. Solar System Formation and Early Evolution: the First 100 Million Years

The solar system, as we know it today, is about 4.5 billion years old. It is widely believed that it was essentially completed 100 million years after the formation of the Sun, which itself took less than 1 million years, although the exact chronology remains highly uncertain. For instance: which, of the giant planets or the terrestrial planets, formed first, and how? How did they acquire their mass? What was the early evolution of the “primitive solar nebula” (solar nebula for short)? What is its relation with the circumstellar disks that are ubiquitous around young low-mass stars today? Is it possible to define a “time zero” (t ₀), the epoch of the formation of the solar system? Is the solar system exceptional or common? This astronomical chapter focuses on the early stages, which determine in large part the subsequent evolution of the proto-solar system. This evolution is logarithmic, being very fast initially, then gradually slowing down. The chapter is thus divided in three parts: (1) The first million years: the stellar era. The dominant phase is the formation of the Sun in a stellar cluster, via accretion of material from a circumstellar disk, itself fed by a progressively vanishing circumstellar envelope. (2) The first 10 million years: the disk era. The dominant phase is the evolution and progressive disappearance of circumstellar disks around evolved young stars; planets will start to form at this stage. Important constraints on the solar nebula and on planet formation are drawn from the most primitive objects in the solar system, i.e., meteorites. (3) The first 100 million years: the “telluric” era. This phase is dominated by terrestrial (rocky) planet formation and differentiation, and the appearance of oceans and atmospheres.     

Extragalactic Astronomy with the VLTI: a new window on the Universe

Interferometry in the optical and near infrared has so far played a marginal role in Extragalactic Astronomy. Active Galactic Nuclei are the brightest and most compact extragalactic sources, nonetheless only a very limited number could be studied with speckle interferometry and none with long baseline interferometry. The VLTI will allow the study of moderately faint extragalactic objects with very high spatial resolution thus opening a new window on the universe. With this paper we focus on three scientific cases to show how AMBER and MIDI can be used to tackle open issues in extragalactic astronomy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The gaseous Halo of the Virgo Cluster Galaxy 45

Observations of the Virgo Cluster galaxy NGC 4569 in soft X-rays and in Hα reveal both an asymmetrically distributed hot gaseous halo and a giant filament of diffuse emission, respectively, extending from the same side of the disk, the latter one to at least 8.8 kpc. A deep longslit spectrum along the filament shows velocities systematically different from the systemic velocity of NGC 4569. With the inclination of the disk one can determine the Hα spur as a giant outflow in NGC 4569. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

About the relations between finite strain in non-cubic crystals and the related phenomenological P-V Equation of State

The notion of scalar strain in minerals is crucial for the formulation of P-V equations of state (EoS). A scalar strain, , holding for any crystal symmetry has been derived by a rigorous and general approach, and then used to develop the related phenomenological P-V EoS. , which depends on V and the trace of the G^* G⁰ matrix, can be split into two components, M and , where the former takes values close to those of the scalar strain according to Birch. M, providing the main contribution (often larger than 80%) to , is appropriate for the formulation of an EoS as M/V behaves regularly in the limit of an unstrained configuration. The phenomenological EoS based on M shows the same dependence on the elastic parameters (bulk modulus and derivatives versus pressure) of the usual Birch-Murnaghan EoS, and yields comparable results. Slight deviations occur for low symmetry minerals. This work is meant to contribute (1) to shed light on the relationships between scalar strain and related P-V EoSs, and (2) to provide a most general EoS which includes, as a particular case, the Birch-Murnaghan model and explains why this latter is reliable for crystal symmetry other than the cubic one, for which it was originally derived.     

Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

We analyze decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region using observational datasets over the period 1850–2009 and a regional climate model simulation for the period 1960–2000, focusing in particular on the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Our results show that decadal variability associated with the winter and summer manifestations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and SNAO respectively) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly contribute to decadal climate anomalies over the Mediterranean region during these seasons. Over 30% of decadal variance in DJF and JJA precipitation in parts of the Mediterranean region can be explained by NAO and SNAO variability respectively. During JJA, the AMO explains over 30% of regional surface air temperature anomalies and Mediterranean Sea surface temperature anomalies, with significant influence also in the transition seasons. In DJF, only Mediterranean SST still significantly correlates with the AMO while regional surface air temperature does not. Also, there is no significant NAO influence on decadal Mediterranean surface air temperature anomalies during this season. A simulation with the PROTHEUS regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model is utilized to investigate processes determining regional decadal changes during the 1960–2000 period, specifically the wetter and cooler 1971–1985 conditions versus the drier and warmer 1986–2000 conditions. The simulation successfully captures the essence of observed decadal changes. Model set-up suggests that AMO variability is transmitted to the Mediterranean/European region and the Mediterranean Sea via atmospheric processes. Regional feedbacks involving cloud cover and soil moisture changes also appear to contribute to observed changes. If confirmed, the linkage between Mediterranean temperatures and the AMO may imply a certain degree of regional decadal climate predictability. The AMO and other decadal influences outlined here should be considered along with those from long-term increases in greenhouse gas forcings when making regional climate out-looks for the Mediterranean 10–20?years out.     

Considerations on the magnitude distributions of the Kuiper belt and of the Jupiter Trojans

By examining the absolute magnitude (H) distributions (hereafter HD) of the cold and hot populations in the Kuiper belt and of the Trojans of Jupiter, we find evidence that the Trojans have been captured from the outer part of the primordial trans-neptunian planetesimal disk. We develop a sketch model of the HDs in the inner and outer parts of the disk that is consistent with the observed distributions and with the dynamical evolution scenario known as the ‘Nice model’. This leads us to predict that the HD of the hot population should have the same slope of the HD of the cold population for 6.5<H<9, both as steep as the slope of the Trojans' HD. Current data partially support this prediction, but future observations are needed to clarify this issue. Because the HD of the Trojans rolls over at H∼9 to a collisional equilibrium slope that should have been acquired when the Trojans were still embedded in the primordial trans-neptunian disk, our model implies that the same roll-over should characterize the HDs of the Kuiper belt populations, in agreement with the results of Bernstein et al. [Bernstein, G.M., and 5 colleagues, 2004. Astron. J. 128, 1364-1390] and Fuentes and Holman [Fuentes, C.I., Holman, M.J., 2008. Astron. J. 136, 83-97]. Finally, we show that the constraint on the total mass of the primordial trans-neptunian disk imposed by the Nice model implies that it is unlikely that the cold population formed beyond 35 AU.     

Asteroidal source of L chondrite meteorites

Establishing connections between meteorites and their parent asteroids is an important goal of planetary science. Several links have been proposed in the past, including a spectroscopic match between basaltic meteorites and (4) Vesta, that are helping scientists understand the formation and evolution of the Solar System bodies. Here we show that the shocked L chondrite meteorites, which represent about two thirds of all L chondrite falls, may be fragments of a disrupted asteroid with orbital semimajor axis a=2.8 AU. This breakup left behind thousands of identified 1–15 km asteroid fragments known as the Gefion family. Fossil L chondrite meteorites and iridium enrichment found in an ≈467 Ma old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, and perhaps also ∼5 large terrestrial craters with corresponding radiometric ages, may be tracing the immediate aftermath of the family-forming collision when numerous Gefion fragments evolved into the Earth-crossing orbits by the 5:2 resonance with Jupiter. This work has major implications for our understanding of the source regions of ordinary chondrite meteorites because it implies that they can sample more distant asteroid material than was previously thought possible.