Oceanic influence on the sub-seasonal to interannual timing and frequency of extreme dry spells over the West African Sahel

Intra-seasonal drought episodes (extreme dry spells) are strongly linked to crop yield loss in the West African Sahel, especially when they occur at crop critical stages such as juvenile or flowering stage. This paper seeks to expose potentially predictable features in the sub-seasonal to inter-annual occurrence of “extreme dry spells” (extDS) through their links to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). We consider two kinds of extreme dry spells: more than 2 weeks of consecutive dry days following a rain event (often found at the beginning of the rainy season, after the first rain events) and more than a week (observed towards the end of the rainy season, before the last rain events). We extract dry spells from daily rainfall data at 43 stations (31 stations in Senegal over 1950–2010 and 12 stations in Niger over 1960–2000) to identify the intra-seasonal distribution of extDS and their significant correlation with local rainfall deficits. Seasonality of distribution and high spatial coherence are found in the timing and the frequency of occurrence of extDS in different rainfall regions over Niger and Senegal. The correlation between the regional occurrence index (ROI), necessary to capture the spatial extent of extDS, and observed global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) sheds light on the influence of the external factors on the decadal, interannual and sub-seasonal variability of extDS over the West African Sahel. When the global tropics and the Atlantic are warmer than normal, more coherent and delayed June–July extDS are observed after onset of rainy season, as well as early cessation type in August–September. When the Indo-Pacific is cooler and the equatorial south Atlantic is warmer than normal little to no extDS are found in the onset sub-period of the monsoon season. Mostly late types of extDS occur in October as a result of late cessation. These results show potential predictability of extreme dry spells after onset and before cessation of monsoonal rain based on global patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies.     

Bounding the time delay between high-energy neutrinos and gravitational-wave transients from gamma-ray bursts

We derive a conservative coincidence time window for joint searches of gravitational-wave (GW) transients and high-energy neutrinos (HENs, with energies ?100 GeV), emitted by gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). The last are among the most interesting astrophysical sources for coincident detections with current and near-future detectors. We take into account a broad range of emission mechanisms. We take the upper limit of GRB durations as the 95% quantile of the T₉₀’s of GRBs observed by BATSE, obtaining a GRB duration upper limit of ∼150 s. Using published results on high-energy (>100 MeV) photon light curves for 8 GRBs detected by Fermi LAT, we verify that most high-energy photons are expected to be observed within the first ∼150 s of the GRB. Taking into account the breakout-time of the relativistic jet produced by the central engine, we allow GW and HEN emission to begin up to 100 s before the onset of observable gamma photon production. Using published precursor time differences, we calculate a time upper bound for precursor activity, obtaining that 95% of precursors occur within ∼250 s prior to the onset of the GRB. Taking the above different processes into account, we arrive at a time window of t_HEN − t_GW ∈ [−500 s, +500 s]. Considering the above processes, an upper bound can also be determined for the expected time window of GW and/or HEN signals coincident with a detected GRB, t_GW − t_GRB ≈ t_HEN − t_GRB ∈ [−350 s, +150 s]. These upper bounds can be used to limit the coincidence time window in multimessenger searches, as well as aiding the interpretation of the times of arrival of measured signals.     

Topographic and stratification effects on shelf edge flows

Results are presented from two sets of laboratory model experiments on the effects of an isolated seamount upon the flow of an intermediate-water slope current along a continental shelf. The experimental results for initial ambient conditions of respectively two-layer and linearly stratified fluids show that the structure of such a boundary current depends primarily on the values of the appropriate set of dimensionless dynamical parameters (namely the Burger (Bu), Ekman (Ek) and Rossby (Ro) numbers), as well as the dimensionless lateral separation of the seamount and shelf and the proportional height of the seamount relative to the distance from the bottom at which the intermediate-water flows. Comparisons of the present results with those from a previous two-layer fluid study with no obstacle present reveals that the presence of the obstacle does not alter significantly the stability of the current even when situated close to the shelf. However, for such configurations, the density, velocity and vorticity fields in the local zone of interaction between the current and the obstacle are distorted significantly by the presence of the obstacle, provided that the summit of the obstacle penetrates the level of current flow. Measurements of density, velocity and vorticity fields show no significant dependence of the flow interaction upon the detailed bathymetry of the shelf-slope. For stable intermediate-water slope currents, the nature of the interaction with the obstacle is determined primarily by (i) the lateral separation of the obstacle and the shelf edge and (ii) the Ro of the flow. For sufficiently low values of the former and high values of the latter, the interaction results in a splitting of the incident flow around the obstacle, with cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy pairs being generated in the lee. Geostrophic equilibrium is seen to be maintained in the current, even in the near wake of the obstacle. For cases in which the summit of the seamount is below the initially-undisturbed intermediate water level, no Taylor column-like division of the slope current occurs and no significant distortion of the current structure (velocity and density) occurs for the parameter ranges investigated. For linearly stratified cases, measurements show that no significant local elevation or depression of the density interfaces is observed in the interaction zone. The distributions of the local buoyancy frequencies calculated from the density profiles reveal that the minimum value of the frequency upstream of the obstacle is smaller than that downstream, indicating that the flow interactions generate local mixing downstream, with consequent erosion of the density interfaces.     

Mapping and monitoring net primary productivity with AVHRR NDVI time-series: statistical equivalence of cumulative vegetation indices

In the last two decades, numerous investigators have proposed cumulative vegetation indices (i.e., functions which encode the cumulative effect of NDVI maximum value composite time-series into a single variable) for net primary productivity (NPP) mapping and monitoring on a regional to continental basis. In this paper, we investigate the relationships among three of the most commonly used cumulative vegetation indices, expanding on the definition of equivalence of remotely sensed vegetation indices for decision making. We consider two cumulative vegetation indices as equivalent, if the value of one index is statistically predictable from the value of the other index. Using an annual time-series of broad-scale AVHRR NDVI monthly maximum value composites of the island of Corsica (France), we show that the pairwise linear association among the analysed cumulative vegetation indices shows coefficients of determination (R²) higher than 0.99. That is, knowing the value of one index is statistically equivalent to knowing the value of the other indices for application purposes.