Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.     

The future of informal settlements: lessons in the legalization of disputed urban land in Recife, Brazil

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between legalization of land tenure and people's capacity to compete for and sustain their stake in the urban land market. Two aspects of land regularization are taken into account: the benefits of land regularization (as collateral for investments); and the perverse aspects of disputes over improved land (due to increased scarcity of illegal, but affordable housing land). Most research on illegal urban land has systematically investigated how to legalize illegal settlements to improve the effectiveness of service provision, whilst attracting public investments. But, few understand the underlying factors motivating people to improve and consolidate their houses where no legal tenure exists. The absence of substantial understanding about people's perceptions of their tenure security has encouraged most research to conclude that improving tenure security leads to higher levels of housing consolidation. What this paper shows is that the relationship between people's perceptions of land tenure security and housing consolidation is much more malleable and complex than conventionally assumed. The subtle difference between tenure of the land and tenure of the house indicates that people are willing to invest in their housing conditions almost irrespectively of their land tenure situation. This finding challenges the orthodox views of the property rights school of thought. In addition, this paper contends that what legalization is really doing is to reduce the available land stock for the poorest families, because legalization decreases the amount of illegal land (illegal land is undesirable, but affordable for the poor). The orthodox legal system needs to be revised to include the poorest families in the urban society of the new millennium.     

Using historical source data to understand urban flood risk: a socio-hydrological modelling application at Gregório Creek,Brazil

ABSTRACT

The city of São Carlos, state of São Paulo, Brazil, has a historical coexistence between society and floods. Unplanned urbanization in this area is a representative feature of how Brazilian cities have developed, undermining the impact of natural hazards. The Gregório Creek catchment is an enigma of complex dynamics concerning the relationship between humans and water in Brazilian cities. Our hypothesis is that social memory of floods can improve future resilience. In this paper we analyse flood risk dynamics in a small urban catchment, identify the impacts of social memory on building resilience and propose measures to reduce the risk of floods. We applied a socio-hydrological model using data collected from newspapers from 1940 to 2018. The model was able to elucidate human–water processes in the catchment and the historical source data proved to be a useful tool to fill gaps in the data in small urban basins.     

Magnetotelluric measurements at Eusebio,an equatorial station

Magnetotelluric measurements in the period range 100–86400 s were conducted at a coastal station under the equatorial electrojet (Eusebio, 3.87°S, 321.58°E). The magnetotelluric data were hand-scaled and analysed to obtain a scalar apparent resistivity profile at Eusebio. The depth of the intermediate conducting layer was found to be in the range 45–75 km and the final conducting layer seems to begin at a depth of about 350 km. Possible effects of the source field equatorial electrojet are discussed and our results are compared with those of an African station under the equatorial electrojet.     

Numerical self correction of non-homogeneous behaviour of data in linear wave propagation

Summary An attempt is made to construct a scheme of numerical integration for the wave operator that can detect which kind of non-homogeneous term has acted over the data and later use this knowledge to integrate the operator in time. Data is generated with a wave initially at rest, and a scheme is presented to detect these functions and study how these values can be extrapolated in time to be used. The use of known functions to generate data is required only to check the effectiveness of the numerical device.     

Wavelet Shrinkage: High frequency multipath reduction from GPS relative positioning

The wavelet transform is used to reduce the high frequency multipath of pseudorange and carrier phase GPS double differences (DDs). This transform decomposes the DD signal, thus separating the high frequencies due to multipath effects. After the decomposition, the wavelet shrinkage is performed by thresholding to eliminate the high frequency component. Then the signal can be reconstructed without the high frequency component. We show how to choose the best threshold. Although the high frequency multipath is not the main multipath error component, its correction provides improvements of about 30% in pseudorange average residuals and 24% in carrier phases. The results also show that the ambiguity solutions become more reliable after correcting the high frequency multipath.     

Estimates of coda Q attenuation in the João Câmara area (Northeastern Brazil)

S coda wave of seventy-four local earthquakes recorded in a network of ten seismic stations were used to calculate coda Q attenuation (Q_c) in the João Câmara area (northeastern Brazil). The estimates show Q_c as a strong function of frequency in the range from 6.0 to 20.0 Hz. We found out that Q_c in João Câmara has a functional form given by Q_c= Q₀ f, where Q₀= 151 ± 99 and = 0.98 ± 0.05. If the standard deviations are taken into account,we conclude that there are no relevant changes in both Q₀ and values from one station to another. The estimated Q₀ values at the different stations suggest that the Samambaia fault is a boundary between two different seismic attenuation zones. In one side of the fault (left), where stations were installed in Pre-Cambrian terrain and thick sedimentary layer, the seismic attenuation is stronger than in the other side (stations installed in thin sedimentary layer and limestone outcrop).The anomalous Q₀ values in the left side of the Samambaia fault can be explained due to the presence of a shallow conductive layer in the upper crust( 10 km), such as proposed by Padilha et al. (1992). According to our results, if there is a conductive layer in the area, it probably spreads over João Câmara city and surrounding regions.However, more detailed investigation either with seismic methods (seismic attenuation,3D tomography with P and/or S wave velocities) or with other geophysical methods is needed to interpret the observed differences in Q₀ values between the two sides of the Samambaia fault.     

Author Index Volume 60

Authors Index

Author Index Volume 60     

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Altenatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit.     

Estimates of Reynolds stress in a highly energetic shelf sea

In recent years the use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) to estimate Reynolds stresses, using the so-called variance method, has become popular; and although there was great effort in studying the uncertainties on this technique, there were no reports in the main literature of its validity using independent measurements. This work reports on the comparison of ADCP and Acoustic Current Velocimeter (ADV) estimates of Reynolds stresses. The comparison of the ADCP and ADV is encouraging during periods when no strong waves were present with both the explained variance of 0.8 and the slope of the regression being 0.97. Nevertheless, when strong waves are present the method breaks down and the comparison between ADCP and ADV is very poor with R² =0.04.