Contamination source detection in water distribution networks using belief propagation

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - We present a Bayesian approach for the Contamination Source Detection problem in water distribution networks. Assuming that contamination is...     

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Effect of spatial resolution of satellite images on estimating the greenness and evapotranspiration of urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGS), like most managed land covers, are getting progressively affected by water scarcity and drought. Preserving, restoring and expanding UGS require sustainable management of green and blue water resources to fulfil evapotranspiration (ET) demand for green plant cover. The heterogeneity of UGS with high variation in their microclimates and irrigation practices builds up the complexity of ET estimation. In oversized UGS, areas too large to be measured with in situ ET methods, remote sensing (RS) approaches of ET measurement have the potential to estimate the actual ET. Often in situ approaches are not feasible or too expensive. We studied the effects of spatial resolution using different satellite images, with high-, medium- and coarse-spatial resolutions, on the greenness and ET of UGS using Vegetation Indices (VIs) and VI-based ET, over a 780-ha urban park in Adelaide, Australia. We validated ET with the ground-based ET method of Soil Water Balance. Three sets of imagery from WorldView2, Landsat and MODIS, and three VIs including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2), were used to assess long-term changes of VIs and ET calculated from the different imagery acquired for this study (2011–2018). We found high correspondence between ET-MODIS and ET-Landsat (R² > 0.99 for all VIs). Landsat-VIs captured the seasonal changes of greenness better than MODIS-VIs. We used artificial neural network (ANN) to relate the RS-ET and ground data, and ET-MODIS (EVI2) showed the highest correlation (R² = 0.95 and MSE =0.01 for validation). We found a strong relationship between RS-ET and in situ measurements, even though it was not explicable by simple regressions; black box models helped us to explore their correlation. The methodology used in this research makes a strong case for the value of remote sensing in estimating and managing ET of green spaces in water-limited cities.     

Dilaton stabilization by massive fermion matter

The study started by Cabo and Brandenberger (J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. 2:15, 2009) about the Dilaton mean field stabilization thanks to the effective potential generated by the existence of massive fermions, is here extended. Three loop corrections are evaluated in addition to the previously calculated two loop terms. The results indicate that the Dilaton vacuum field tends to be fixed at a high value close to the Planck scale, in accordance with the need for predicting Einstein gravity from string theory. The mass of the Dilaton is evaluated to be also a high value close to the Planck mass, which implies the absence of Dilaton scalar signals in modern cosmological observations. These properties arise when the fermion mass is chosen to be either at a lower bound corresponding to the top quark mass, or alternatively, at a very much higher value assumed to be in the grand unification energy range. One of the three 3-loop terms is exactly evaluated in terms of Master integrals. The other two graphs are however evaluated in their leading logarithm correction in the perturbative expansion. The calculation of the non leading logarithmic contribution and the inclusion of higher loops terms could made more precise the numerical estimates of the vacuum field value and masses, but seemingly are expected not to change the qualitative behavior obtained. The validity of the here employed Yukawa model approximation is argued for small value of the fermion masses with respect to the Planck one. A correction to the two loop calculation done in the previous work is here underlined.     

Effects of sugar cane monocultures on origin and characteristics of dissolved organic matter in the Manguaba lagoon in northeast Brazil

Brazil has extensive sugar cane monocultures, which significantly alter hydrogeochemical material fluxes. We studied dissolved organic matter (OM) fluxes in the Manguaba lagoon-estuary system, which drains a sugar cane monoculture-dominated hinterland and discharges into the Atlantic coastal ocean. The OM fluxes into the lagoon originate from baseflow, field runoff and sugar cane factory effluents. In the study, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, δ¹³C DOC and UV absorbance were analysed along a freshwater-seawater salinity gradient that encompasses river (DOC 9-11 mg l⁻¹, δ¹³C −22.2‰ to −25.5‰); lagoon (4-11 mg l⁻¹, −20.5‰ to −24.8‰); estuary (3-9 mg l⁻¹, −22.6‰ to −25.3‰) and coastal waters (1.64 mg l⁻¹, −21‰) with different intra-seasonal runoff conditions. We used the carbon isotope data to quantify the sugar cane derived DOC. Where river water meets brackish lagoon water, substantial loss of DOC occurs during rainy conditions, when suspended sediment from eroded fields in the river is very high. During dry weather, at much lower suspension levels, DOC increases, however, presumably from addition of photolysed resuspended sedimentary OM. In the estuary, mixing of DOC is strictly conservative. Ca. 1/3 of riverine DOM discharged into the lagoon has a sugar cane source. Within the lagoon on avg. 20% of the bulk DOM is comprised of sugar cane DOM, whereas during heavy rainfall the amount increases to 31%, due to intensified drainage flow and soil erosion. In the estuary, 14-26% is of sugar cane origin. The sugar cane-derived component follows the mixing patterns of bulk DOM.     

Tsunamis recorded in tide gauges at Costa Rica Pacific coast and their numerical modeling

Here we perform an inventory of tsunamis recorded by tide gauges in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. This paper also reveals nine tsunami records that had not been published before, at Puntarenas tide gauge corresponding to the 1979 Colombia tsunami and at Quepos tide gauge corresponding to the 1985 Mexico twin tsunamis, the 2010, 2014 and 2015 Chile tsunamis, the 2006 Tonga tsunami, the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami. The original record of 1990 Cóbano tsunami at Quepos was digitized again at a higher resolution and re-processed. The arrival of 1979, 1985, 2006 and 2014 tsunamis to Costa Rica is not listed on tsunami catalogs. The maximum tsunami height obtained here after processing 1990, 2011 and 2013 records was higher than reported on catalogs. The opposite happened for the 2010 tsunami. Quepos gauge record for January 2007 was analyzed as it seemed to have registered the Kuril Islands tsunami, but the results were not conclusive due to the low sample rate and the small tsunami amplitude if any. All those eleven tsunamis were modeled and the results compared with the records. A good agreement was obtained for the Quepos gauge, although the modeled 2011 and 2013 tsunamis had a difference of 8 min on the arrival time. An acceptable agreement was obtained for the Puntarenas gauge for 1979 tsunami, considering at least the first 4 h of the marigram is lost.     

Rock magnetic and geochemical proxies for iron mineral diagenesis in a tropical lake: Lago Verde, Los Tuxtlas, East–Central Mexico

Magnetic and non-magnetic mineral analyses were conducted on a lacustrine sequence from Lago Verde in the tropical coast along the Gulf of Mexico that covers the last 2000 years. The site witnessed the transformation of the environment since the early Olmec societies until forest clearance in the last century. Through these analyses we investigated the processes that affected the magnetic mineralogy in order to construct a model of past environmental changes, and compare this model with the archeological record and inferred climatic changes in the northern hemisphere of tropical America. Volcanic activity has played a major influence on sediment magnetic properties, as a purveyor of Ti-magnetites/Ti-maghemites, and as a factor of instability in the environment. Anoxic reductive conditions are evident in most of Lago Verde's sedimentary record.

Direct observations of magnetic minerals and ratios of geochemical (Fe, Ti), and ferrimagnetic (χf) and paramagnetic (χp) susceptibility (χ) data, are used as parameters for magnetite dissolution (χp/χ, Fe/χf), and precipitation (χf/Ti) of magnetic minerals. Intense volcanic activity and anoxia are recorded before A.D. 20, leading to the formation of framboidal pyrite. Increased erosion, higher evaporation rates, lower lake levels, anoxia and reductive diagenesis in non-sulphidic conditions are inferred for laminated sediments between A.D. 20–850. This deposit matches the period of historical crisis and multiyear droughts that contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization. Dissolution of magnetite, a high organic content and framboidal pyrite point to anoxic, sulphidic conditions and higher lake levels after A.D. 850. Higher lake levels in Lago Verde broadly coincide with the increased precipitation documented during the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 950–1350) in the northern tropical and subtropical regions of the American continent. For the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400–1800), the relatively moist conditions inferred are in concordance with the glacial advances recorded in central Mexico. Higher erosion rates reflect destruction of the rainforest over the last 40 years.