Tsunamis recorded in tide gauges at Costa Rica Pacific coast and their numerical modeling

Here we perform an inventory of tsunamis recorded by tide gauges in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. This paper also reveals nine tsunami records that had not been published before, at Puntarenas tide gauge corresponding to the 1979 Colombia tsunami and at Quepos tide gauge corresponding to the 1985 Mexico twin tsunamis, the 2010, 2014 and 2015 Chile tsunamis, the 2006 Tonga tsunami, the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami. The original record of 1990 Cóbano tsunami at Quepos was digitized again at a higher resolution and re-processed. The arrival of 1979, 1985, 2006 and 2014 tsunamis to Costa Rica is not listed on tsunami catalogs. The maximum tsunami height obtained here after processing 1990, 2011 and 2013 records was higher than reported on catalogs. The opposite happened for the 2010 tsunami. Quepos gauge record for January 2007 was analyzed as it seemed to have registered the Kuril Islands tsunami, but the results were not conclusive due to the low sample rate and the small tsunami amplitude if any. All those eleven tsunamis were modeled and the results compared with the records. A good agreement was obtained for the Quepos gauge, although the modeled 2011 and 2013 tsunamis had a difference of 8 min on the arrival time. An acceptable agreement was obtained for the Puntarenas gauge for 1979 tsunami, considering at least the first 4 h of the marigram is lost.     

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.     

Estimates of effective permeability for non-Newtonian fluid flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media

An understanding of the interplay between non-Newtonian effects in porous media flow and field-scale domain heterogeneity is of great importance in several engineering and geological applications. Here we present a simplified approach to the derivation of an effective permeability for flow of a purely viscous power–law fluid with flow behavior index n in a randomly heterogeneous porous domain subject to a uniform pressure gradient. A standard form of the flow law generalizing the Darcy’s law to non-Newtonian fluids is adopted, with the permeability coefficient being the only source of randomness. The natural logarithm of the permeability is considered a spatially homogeneous and correlated Gaussian random field. Under the ergodic hypothesis, an effective permeability is first derived for two limit 1-D flow geometries: flow parallel to permeability variation (serial-type layers), and flow transverse to permeability variation (parallel-type layers). The effective permeability of a 2-D or 3-D isotropic domain is conjectured to be a power average of 1-D results, generalizing results valid for Newtonian fluids under the validity of Darcy’s law; the conjecture is validated comparing our results with previous literature findings. The conjecture is then extended, allowing the exponents of the power averaging to be functions of the flow behavior index. For Newtonian flow, novel expressions for the effective permeability reduce to those derived in the past. The effective permeability is shown to be a function of flow dimensionality, domain heterogeneity, and flow behavior index. The impact of heterogeneity is significant, especially for shear-thinning fluids with a low flow behavior index, which tend to exhibit channeling behavior.     

Retrogressive fabric development during exhumation of the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): arguments for an extensional origin and implications for the Alps–Apennines linkage

Geological mapping coupled with structural investigations carried out in the Voltri Massif (eastern Ligurian Alps, Italy) provide new data for the interpretation of the tectonic context controlling main fabric development during exhumation of its high-pressure core. The Voltri Massif is here interpreted as a c. 30 km-long eclogite-bearing, asymmetric dome formed by the progressive verticalisation of the regional, second-phase mylonitic foliation developed during retrogressive greenschist metamorphic conditions. In this light, the exhumation history is driven by a ductile-to-brittle extensional process, operating through low-angle, top-to-the-W multiple detachment systems. A Late Eocene–Early Oligocene age for this extensional episode is proposed on the basis of structural correlations, stratigraphic and radiometric constraints. In this scenario, the Voltri Massif is interpreted as an extensional domain developed to accommodate the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene arching of the Western Alps–Northern Apennines orogenic system.     

Determination of heterogeneities in the hydraulic properties of a phreatic aquifer from tidal level fluctuations: a case in Argentina

A well-known analytical solution of Jacob (1950) for groundwater flow due to tidal-wave propagation, together with field measurements along a complete tidal cycle and geological data, were used to evaluate the heterogeneities in the hydraulic properties of a phreatic aquifer located next to the River Ajo in the coastal plain environment of the southern sector of the Samborombon Bay wetland, Argentina. From the analysis of water-table fluctuations in a set of monitoring wells located along a riverbank-normal transect, it was possible to quantify the piecewise spatial variations of the hydraulic diffusivity of the phreatic aquifer. The results show the strong lateral variations of the sedimentary environment due to the influence of the different transport and deposition agents that characterize the coastal plain. The known thickness of the phreatic aquifer and the estimated range of the specific yield allowed the hydraulic conductivity to be identified as the most influential factor. [Jacob CE (1950) Flow of ground water. In: Rouse H (ed) Engineering Hydraulics. Wiley, New York]     

A rootless suture and the loss of the roots of a mountain chain: The Variscan belt of NW Iberia

Ophiolites of different Paleozoic ages occur in North-West (NW) Iberia in a rootless suture representing the remnants of the Rheic Ocean. Associated allochthonous terranes in the hanging- and foot-walls of the suture derive from the former margins, whereas the relative autochthon corresponds to the Paleozoic passive margin of northern Gondwana. The Paleozoic tectonic evolution of this part of the circum-Atlantic region is deduced from the stratigraphical, petrological, structural and metamorphic evolution of the different units and their ages. The tectonic reconstruction covers from Cambro-Ordovician continental rifting and the opening of the Rheic Ocean to its Middle to Upper Devonian closure. Then, the Variscan Laurussia–Gondwana convergence and collision is briefly described, from its onset to the late stages of collapse associated with the demise of the orogenic roots.     

Subantarctic macrotidal flats, cheniers and beaches in San Sebastian Bay, Tierra Del Fuego, Argentina

San Sebastian Bay is a large, semicircular coastal embayment situated on the Atlantic coast of Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. It is a high-energy, subantarctic environment with a tidal range of 10.4 m, influenced by large waves of Atlantic and local origin and swept by constant, strong westerly winds. A 17 km long gravel spit protects the Northern part of the Bay giving rise to a gradient in sedimentary processes. From south to north, are seven distinct sedimentary environments. Coastal sedimentation started at least 5200 years before present (BP) and a rapid progradation related to a relative sea-level drop has infilled about 6 kilometres of the Bay with a sedimentary sequence 10–11 m thick. 14-C dating of unabraded shells in the Chenier ridges of the relict part of the complex allows for a precise reconstruction of the stages of the progradation, that has slowed from 2.35 m/year at 5000 years BP to 0.6 m/year at present. The possible causes of the sea-level drop are discussed.     

Application of conditional geostatistical simulation to calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes belonging to a seismic series

Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.     

Simulating a seismic series using geostatistical and stochastic methods: application to the seismic series in the Alborán Sea (1997 June 24–?)

Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.