A reduced-order model for Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic groundwater flow

We explore the ability of the greedy algorithm to serve as an effective tool for the construction of reduced-order models for the solution of fully saturated groundwater flow in the presence of randomly distributed transmissivities. The use of a reduced model is particularly appealing in the context of numerical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations that are typically performed, e.g., within environmental risk assessment protocols. In this context, model order reduction techniques enable one to construct a surrogate model to reduce the computational burden associated with the solution of the partial differential equation governing the evolution of the system. These techniques approximate the model solution with a linear combination of spatially distributed basis functions calculated from a small set of full model simulations. The number and the spatial behavior of these basis functions determine the computational efficiency of the reduced model and the accuracy of the approximated solution. The greedy algorithm provides a deterministic procedure to select the basis functions and build the reduced-order model. Starting from a single basis function, the algorithm enriches the set of basis functions until the largest error between the full and the reduced model solutions is lower than a predefined tolerance. The comparison between the standard MC and the reduced-order approach is performed through a two-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow scenario in the presence of a uniform (in the mean) hydraulic head gradient. The natural logarithm of the aquifer transmissivity is modeled as a second-order stationary Gaussian random field. The accuracy of the reduced basis model is assessed as a function of the correlation scale and variance of the log-transmissivity. We explore the performance of the reduced model in terms of the number of iterations of the greedy algorithm and selected metrics quantifying the discrepancy between the sample distributions of hydraulic heads computed with the full and the reduced model. Our results show that the reduced model is accurate and is highly efficient in the presence of a small variance and/or a large correlation length of the log-transmissivity field. The flow scenarios associated with large variances and small correlation lengths require an increased number of basis functions to accurately describe the collection of the MC solutions, thus reducing significantly the computational advantages associated with the reduced model.     

The caranto paleosol and its role in the early urbanization of Venice

As rising sea level threatens Venice, there is a need to construct a historical framework for interpreting modern environmental changes. Environmental conditions that would later help support Venice's urbanization were established during the Late Glacial period when calcic soils began to develop in the Venetian alluvial paleoplain. A calcic paleosol, buried by Middle to Late Holocene marine transgressive deposits, represents a subsurface layer long known in the Venice area as “caranto.” Referenced in the ancient chronicles of architects and builders, the caranto exhibits relatively high compressive and shear strength, making it an important substrate for supporting building foundations, some dating back to the Gothic era (12th–15th centuries A.D.). Hence, the caranto paleosol documents local post‐glacial environmental changes while playing an important role in Venetian building construction and human settlement. Here we provide geochemical, sedimentological, paleoecological, and chronological analyses of the caranto paleosol and related deposits based on recent coring of the Venetian Lagoon. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Magnetic field modulated dust streams from Jupiter in interplanetary space

High speed dust streams emanating from near Jupiter were first discovered by the Ulysses spacecraft in 1992. Since then the phenomenon has been re-observed by Galileo in 1995, Cassini in 2000, and Ulysses in 2004. The dust grains are expected to be charged to a potential of , which is sufficient to allow the planet's magnetic field to accelerate them away from the planet, where they are subsequently influenced by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A similar phenomenon was observed near Saturn by Cassini. Here, we report and analyze simultaneous dust, IMF and solar wind data for all dust streams from the two Ulysses Jupiter flybys. We find that compression regions (CRs) in the IMF – regions of enhanced magnetic field – precede most dust streams. Furthermore, the duration of a dust stream is roughly comparable with that of the precedent CR, and the occurrence of a dust stream and the occurrence of the previous CR are separated by a time interval that depends on the distance to Jupiter. The intensity of the dust streams and their precedent CRs are also correlated, but this correlation is only evident at distances from the planet no greater than 2 AU. Combining these observations, we argue that CRs strongly affect dust streams, probably by deflecting dust grain trajectories, so that they can reach the spacecraft and be detected by its dust sensor.     

Analysis of Titan CH4 3.3 μm upper atmospheric emission as measured by Cassini/VIMS

After molecular nitrogen, methane is the most abundant species in Titan’s atmosphere and plays a major role in its energy budget and its chemistry. Methane has strong bands at 3.3 μm emitting mainly at daytime after absorption of solar radiation. This emission is strongly affected by non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) in Titan’s upper atmosphere and, hence, an accurate modeling of the non-LTE populations of the emitting vibrational levels is necessary for its analysis. We present a sophisticated and extensive non-LTE model which considers 22 CH₄ levels and takes into account all known excitation mechanisms in which they take part. Solar absorption is the major excitation process controlling the population of the v₃-quanta levels above 1000 km whereas the distribution of the vibrational energy within levels of similar energy through collisions with N₂ is also of importance below that altitude. CH₄-CH₄ vibrational exchange of v₄-quanta affects their population below 500 km. We found that the ν₃ → ground band dominates Titan’s 3.3 μm daytime limb radiance above 750 km whereas the ν₃ + ν₄ → ν₄ band does below that altitude and down to 300 km. The ν₃ + ν₂ → ν₂, the 2ν₃ → ν₃, and the ¹³CH₄ν₃ → ground bands each contribute from 5% to 8% at regions below 800 km. The ν₃ + 2ν₄ → 2ν₄and ν₂ + ν₃ + ν₄ → ν₂ + ν₄ bands each contribute from 2% to 5% below 650 km. Contributions from other CH₄ bands are negligible. We have used the non-LTE model to retrieve the CH₄ abundance from 500 to 1100 km in the southern hemisphere from Cassini-VIMS daytime measurements near 3.3 μm. Our retrievals show good agreement with previous measurements and model results, supporting a weak deviation from well mixed values from the lower atmosphere up to 1000 km.     

The lunar gravity mission MAGIA: preliminary design and performances

The importance of an accurate model of the Moon gravity field has been assessed for future navigation missions orbiting and/or landing on the Moon, in order to use our natural satellite as an intermediate base for next solar system observations and exploration as well as for lunar resources mapping and exploitation. One of the main scientific goals of MAGIA mission, whose Phase A study has been recently funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), is the mapping of lunar gravitational anomalies, and in particular those on the hidden side of the Moon, with an accuracy of 1 mGal RMS at lunar surface in the global solution of the gravitational field up to degree and order 80. MAGIA gravimetric experiment is performed into two phases: the first one, along which the main satellite shall perform remote sensing of the Moon surface, foresees the use of Precise Orbit Determination (POD) data available from ground tracking of the main satellite for the determination of the long wavelength components of gravitational field. Improvement in the accuracy of POD results are expected by the use of ISA, the Italian accelerometer on board the main satellite. Additional gravitational data from recent missions, like Kaguya/Selene, could be used in order to enhance the accuracy of such results. In the second phase the medium/short wavelength components of gravitational field shall be obtained through a low-to-low (GRACE-like) Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) experiment. POD data shall be acquired during the whole mission duration, while the SST data shall be available after the remote sensing phase, when the sub-satellite shall be released from the main one and both satellites shall be left in a free-fall dynamics in the gravity field of the Moon. SST range-rate data between the two satellites shall be measured through an inter-satellite link with accuracy compliant with current state of art space qualified technology. SST processing and gravitational anomalies retrieval shall benefit from a second ISA accelerometer on the sub-satellite in order to decouple lunar gravitational signal from other accelerations. Experiment performance analysis shows that the stated scientific requirements can be achieved with a low mass and low cost sub-satellite, with a SST gravimetric mission of just few months.     

Trends in warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula: relationships to large-scale variables

The aims of this study are to identify the trend of warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula and to connect the variations with large-scale variables. The reasons for performing this analysis are the effects that extremes events have on different ecosystems. Here, we present the results on spatial and temporal variability of warm days (TX90), or those exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, and cold nights (TN10), or those falling below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature. The extreme indices were derived from daily observations at stations and gridded data over land area for the period 1950 to 2006. Significant trends of more warm days and fewer cold nights were found. The trend to fewer cold nights is within the interval of global results given by the IPCC AR4 report; however, the trend to warm days is greater than the corresponding global trend. The influence of large-scale variables on these extreme indices was examined by means of the Empirical Orthogonal Function, correlation, composite maps and multiple regression analyses. Changes in TX90 are connected with the Scandinavian teleconnection index and a preferred mode of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the North Atlantic. Changes in TN10 are connected with the East Atlantic teleconnection index and the leading mode of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic area. Based on the links between the extreme indices and the large-scale variables we derived statistical models to describe the response of TX90 and TN10 to atmospheric circulation and SST variations. The models characterized the observed variations of TX90 and TN10 reasonably well. The results of this study encourage us to analyze, in further work, how temperature extremes might change over the Iberian Peninsula under warmer climate conditions.     

Establishing robustness of a spatial dataset in a tolerance‐based vector model

Spatial data are usually described through a vector model in which geometries are represented by a set of coordinates embedded into an Euclidean space. The use of a finite representation, instead of the real numbers theoretically required, causes many robustness problems which are well known in the literature. Such problems are made even worse in a distributed context, where data is exchanged between different systems and several perturbations can be introduced in the data representation. In order to discuss the robustness of a spatial dataset, two implementation models have to be distinguished: the identity and the tolerance model. The robustness of a dataset in the identity model has been widely discussed in the literature and some algorithms of the Snap Rounding (SR) family can be successfully applied in such contexts. Conversely, this problem has been less explored in the tolerance model. The aim of this article is to propose an algorithm inspired by those of the SR family for establishing or restoring the robustness of a vector dataset in the tolerance model. The main ideas are to introduce an additional operation which spreads instead of snapping geometries, in order to preserve the original relation between them, and to use a tolerance region for such an operation instead of a single snapping location. Finally, some experiments on real‐world datasets are presented, confirming how the proposed algorithm can establish the robustness of a dataset.     

The effect of the Fernando de Noronha plume on the mantle lithosphere in north-eastern Brazil

New xenolith occurrences in the Cenozoic alkali basalts of north-eastern Brazil have been studied in order to constrain the possible imprint on the continental mantle lithosphere of its passage over the Fernando de Noronha plume and the regional mantle processes. Texturally, the lherzolite and harzburgite xenoliths define three groups: group 1, porphyroclastic; group 2, protogranular; group 3, transitional between groups 1 and 2. Equilibrium temperatures are highest for group 1 and lowest for group 2. Clinopyroxenes from group 1 peridotites have Primitive Mantle (PM)-normalised REE patterns varying from L-MREE-enriched convex-upward, typical of phases in equilibrium with alkaline melts, to LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped, to LREE-enriched, steadily fractionated in a wehrlite. Group 2 clinopyroxenes show patterns slightly depleted in LREE to nearly flat. The M-HREE are at 3–5 ×PM concentration level, as typical in fertile lithospheric lherzolites. Most of group 3 clinopyroxenes show LREE-depleted patterns similar to the group 2 ones, but in two samples the clinopyroxenes are characterised by LREE-enriched, spoon-shaped profiles. Sr and Nd isotopes of the group 1 clinopyroxenes form an array between DM and EMI-like components, both of them are also present in the host basalts. Melts estimated to be in equilibrium with the group 1 clinopyroxenes having L-MREE-enriched, convex-upward patterns are similar to the Cenozoic alkaline magmas. The groups 2 and 3 clinopyroxenes define two distinct compositional fields at higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values, correlated with their LREE composition. The isotopes of the groups 2 and 3 LREE-depleted clinopyroxenes form an array from DM towards the isotopic composition of Mesozoic tholeiitic basalts from north-eastern Brazil. Melts in equilibrium with these clinopyroxenes are similar to these basalts, thus suggesting that such xenoliths record geochemical imprint from older melt-related processes.

The LREE-enriched spoon-shaped group 3 clinopyroxenes are characterised by the highest ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values at any given ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr composition. These results are interpreted in terms of a lithospheric mantle section which underwent thermo-chemical and mechanical erosion by infiltration of asthenospheric alkali basalts having EMI-like isotope characteristics during Cenozoic time. At that time, the lithospheric mantle consisted of fertile lherzolites and harzburgites recording the geochemical imprint of Mesozoic mantle processes. The onset of the interaction between lithospheric peridotites and alkaline melts was characterised by the porous flow percolation of small melt volumes that induced chromatographic enrichments in highly incompatible elements and the isotope signature of the spoon-shaped, group 3 clinopyroxenes. Group 1 peridotites represent the base of the lithospheric column eroded by the ascending alkaline melts, whereas the group 2 documents the shallower lithospheric section, with group 3 being the transition. The similarity of processes and isotope components in the protogranular xenoliths from Fernando de Noronha area and north-eastern Brazil supports the hypothesis that the lithosphere beneath Fernando de Noronha is a detached portion of the continental one. Furthermore, the similarity in terms of textural and geochemical features documented by the mantle samples coming from the two different regions seems to confirm the interference of the two regions with the same plume.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments at Sierra La Madera,northwestern Mexico: Sharp signals of Younger Dryas and North American monsoon

During the last glacial termination, the climate system experienced intense global variations whose causes and impacts are not fully defined, particularly for low latitudes. The northwestern Mexico Sky Islands present a climate-sensitive ideal setting to record palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic changes due to their physiographic complexity and location in the ecotone between temperate and tropical ecosystems. High-resolution pollen analysis and a detailed sedimentological study were conducted at the Ciénega Tonibabi tropical thorn scrub site. The 15 540–0 cal a bp nearly continuous record shows that the North Atlantic Ocean did have a cold and humid climatic influence during the glacial stages of the end of the Pleistocene, including a sharp pulse during the Younger Dryas. However, a shift to the Pacific Ocean influence occurred during the Holocene, which led to the development of the El Niño conditions prevailing today. Colder and warmer phases follow one another with higher or lower winter precipitation, including a sharp Bølling–Allerød and development and intensification of the North American monsoon. They are reflected in hydrological changes as well as in the advances, retreats and intermingling of coniferous forests and tropical thorn scrub.