Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences

ABSTRACT

We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Brightness of Saturn's rings with decreasing solar elevation

Early ground-based and spacecraft observations suggested that the temperature of Saturn's main rings (A, B and C) varied with the solar elevation angle, B^′. Data from the composite infrared spectrometer (CIRS) on board Cassini, which has been in orbit around Saturn for more than five years, confirm this variation and have been used to derive the temperature of the main rings from a wide variety of geometries while B^′ varied from near −24^° to 0^° (Saturn's equinox).Still, an unresolved issue in fully explaining this variation relates to how the ring particles are organized and whether even a simple mono-layer or multi-layer approximation describes this best. We present a set of temperature data of the main rings of Saturn that cover the ∼23^°—range of B^′ angles obtained with CIRS at low (α∼30^°) and high (α≥120^°) phase angles. We focus on particular regions of each ring with a radial extent on their lit and unlit sides. In this broad range of B^′, the data show that the A, B and C rings’ temperatures vary as much as 29-38, 22-34 and 18-23 K, respectively. Interestingly the unlit sides of the rings show important temperature variations with the decrease of B^′ as well. We introduce a simple analytical model based on the well known Froidevaux monolayer approximation and use the ring particles’ albedo as the only free parameter in order to fit and analyze this data and estimate the ring particle's albedo. The model considers that every particle of the ring behaves as a black body and warms up due to the direct energy coming from the Sun as well as the solar energy reflected from the atmosphere of Saturn and on its neighboring particles. Two types of shadowing functions are used. One analytical that is used in the latter model in the case of the three rings and another, numerical, that is applied in the case of the C ring alone. The model lit side albedo values at low phase are 0.59, 0.50 and 0.35-0.38 for the A, B and C rings, respectively.     

The influence of halokinesis on prograding clinoforms: Insights from the Tiddlybanken Basin,Norwegian Barents Sea

Although the trajectory and geometry of clinoforms in different types of basins have been described in many studies, few studies discuss the influence of halokinesis on clinoforms in salt-related basins. In this study, we analyse the Lower Cretaceous clinoforms in the Tiddlybanken Basin, Norwegian Barents Sea to evaluate the impact of salt mobilization on the geometry and trajectory of clinoforms as well as its implications on sediment partitioning. To accomplish this objective, we use a multidisciplinary approach consisting of seismic and well-interpretation, 3D structural restoration, and forward stratigraphic modelling. The results show that salt mobilization affects prograding clinoforms by: (a) causing lateral variations in progradation rates, resulting in complex palaeogeography, (b) increasing slope angles, which affect the equilibrium of the clinoform profile and can trigger slope-readjustment processes and (c) producing lateral and temporal variations in accommodation space, leading to different clinoform trajectories, stacking patterns and reservoir distribution along the basin. Forward stratigraphic modelling shows that in salt-related basins and other tectonically active basins, the isolated use of conventional methods for clinoform analysis might lead to potential interpretation pitfalls such as misinterpretation of trajectories and overestimation of foreset angles, which can have negative consequences for exploration models.     

Geographic Information Technologies and the History of a Shoreline: The Case of Chapter 91 in New Bedford,Massachusetts*

This article discusses the use of geographic information technologies to assist researchers in the exploration of historical databases. The case study is a pilot project in which we used geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) to study the history of the Public Waterfront Act (the “Chapter 91” program), a policy designed to balance private property rights, public interest, and environmental protection in the Massachusetts tidelands. The issues discussed range from the role of GIS in society and its limitations as a representational tool to the ability of current GIS to deal with historical data and to manage temporal attributes.     

Dynamics of the Hungaria asteroids

To try to understand the dynamical and collisional evolution of the Hungaria asteroids we have built a large catalog of accurate synthetic proper elements. Using the distribution of the Hungaria, in the spaces of proper elements and of proper frequencies, we can study the dynamical boundaries and the internal structure of the Hungaria region, both within a purely gravitational model and also showing the signature of the non-gravitational effects. We find a complex interaction between secular resonances, mean motion resonances, chaotic behavior and Yarkovsky-driven drift in semimajor axis. We also find a rare occurrence of large scale instabilities, leading to escape from the region. This allows to explain the complex shape of a grouping which we suggest is a collisional family, including most Hungaria but by no means all; we provide an explicit list of non-members of the family. There are finer structures, of which the most significant is a set of very close asteroid couples, with extremely similar proper elements. Some of these could have had, in a comparatively recent past, very close approaches with low relative velocity. We argue that the Hungaria, because of the favorable observing conditions, may soon become the best known sub-group of the asteroid population.     

Record of recent river channel instability, Cheakamus Valley, British Columbia

Rivers flowing from glacier-clad Quaternary volcanoes in southwestern British Columbia have high sediment loads and anabranching and braided planforms. Their floodplains aggrade in response to recurrent large landslides on the volcanoes and to advance of glaciers during periods of climate cooling. In this paper, we document channel instability and aggradation during the last 200 years in lower Cheakamus River valley. Cheakamus River derives much of its flow and nearly all of its sediment from the Mount Garibaldi massif, which includes a number of volcanic centres dominated by Mount Garibaldi volcano. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon and dendrochronological dating of recent floodplain sediments at North Vancouver Outdoor School in Cheakamus Valley show that Cheakamus River aggraded its floodplain about 1–2 m and buried a valley-floor forest in the early or mid 1800s. The aggradation was probably caused by a large (ca. 15–25×10⁶ m³) landslide from the flank of Mount Garibaldi, 15 km north of our study site, in 1855 or 1856. Examination of historical aerial photographs dating back to 1947 indicates that channel instability triggered by this event persisted until the river was dyked in the late 1950s. Our observations are consistent with data from many other mountain areas that suggest rivers with large, but highly variable sediment loads may rapidly aggrade their floodplains following a large spike in sediment supply. Channel instability may persist for decades to centuries after the triggering event.     

Sub-volcanic crystallization at Stromboli (Aeolian Islands, southern Italy) preceding the Sciara del Fuoco sector collapse: evidence from monzonite lithic suite

 We describe texture, mineralogy and whole-rock composition of cognate monzonite sub-volcanic clasts within debris flow deposits related to the 5000 years catastrophic phreatomagmatic eruption probably linked to the Sciara del Fuoco sector collapse. The debris flows are at the top of accretionary lapilli-rich ash deposits overlying potassic (KS, shoshonites) lavas of the Neostromboli period. The monzonites are inferred to be crystallized in situ, at low P, at the side walls and/or roof margins of a shallow magma chamber and to be cogenetic with the KS Neostromboli extrusives. They can be considered "ideal orthocumulates" since they approximately retain a bulk liquid composition and possibly represent "slowly cooled equivalents" of their KS shoshonite host rock. The "closure temperature" of final solidification of the monzonite lithic suite was estimated through ternary-feldspar geothermobarometry, plagioclase–K-feldspar and K-feldspar–biotite equilibria and is in the range of 750–790  °C with a maximum –logfO₂ around 15.1–15.3. The estimated pressure of crystallization is <0.5 kbar. Potassic lavas and dikes, previously emplaced during the Neostromboli period, also resemble the monzonites in both major trace elements and mineral chemistry. The cogenetic relationship between KS Neostromboli extrusives and the monzonite host-rock magma from which the sub-volcanic clasts were derived is clear evidence that a shallow magma chamber existed between the caldera collapse of the Vancori period and the Sciara del Fuoco sector collapse (i.e. between 13 000 and 5000 years). The monzonite clasts were derived from crystallization at very shallow depth (ca. 1 km) and strongly support the hypothesis of violent decompression of the shallow magmatic plumbing system during the Sciara del Fuoco sector collapse. Climax of the regressive landslide event, with maximum disruption of the chamber walls, took place during emplacement of the debris flows, i.e. during the late stage of the Neostromboli phreatomagmatic eruption. Received: 15 September 1996 / Accepted: 5 May 1997     

Linking large-parallax Spitzer–CFHT–VLT astrometry of asteroids

We show that the new ephemeris-space multiple-address-comparison (eMAC) method solves asteroid linking problems despite large parallaxes by applying the method to astrometric asteroid observation sets obtained nearly simultaneously with the Spitzer space telescope, the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT). For main-belt asteroids, the parallax between Spitzer and the Earth-based telescopes is approximately one degree which is large as compared to a typical parallax for solely Earth-based telescopes in the arcseconds regime. In the eMAC method, we reduce the initially huge amount of possible linkages between observation sets by comparing samples of ephemerides that have been computed separately for all sets at, say, three common dates. If the non-zero ephemeris probability densities overlap at all common dates, we try to find an orbit solution for these so-called trial linkages. If there exists an orbit which reproduces all the astrometric observations assuming predefined observational errors, we call it a linkage. Known asteroids are independently identified among Spitzer, CFHT, and VLT astrometry, and comparing the identified observations to the linkages found shows that the method found all known correct linkages present in the data. In addition, we also found five previously unpublished linkages between Spitzer astrometry and Earth-based astrometry. Based on our simulations, we found virtually all Spitzer-related linkages between two single-night observation sets, and more than 99.4% of linkages between two single-night observation sets obtained by Earth-based observatories. Virtually all correct linkages consisting of at least three single-night sets were also detected. The results show that large-parallax discovery observations made from a spacecraft can be linked to Earth-based follow-up observations to ensure that the objects are not lost. Furthermore, we compute the heliocentric and Spitzer-centric distances as well as the corresponding solar phase angles at the dates of Spitzer observations. Based on comparisons to simulated geocentric observations, we also show that, for typical nearly-simultaneous observations, the parallax reduces the distance uncertainties by several orders of magnitude.     

Latent Exurban Development: City Expansion Along the Rural-To-Urban Gradient in Growing and Declining Regions of Southern Europe

This paper quantifies the extent of exurban development in Mediterranean Europe. The assessment was carried out by studying changes in the urban-to-rural population density gradient between the years 1950 and 2010. Three of the six urban regions in this study have experienced population growth and moderate urban concentration, while two regions appear to be shifting toward population decline and urban de-concentration after having experienced compact expansion. A phase of recent re-urbanization has been observed in one region. Altogether, these findings indicate a common path of urban expansion among representative Mediterranean regions between 1950 and 1980 while, in the following period, the cities experienced distinct development phases. From this study, we conclude that exurban development is mainly the product of a shift from compact and dense to semi-compact and intermediate-density settlements. [Key words: semi-dense urban growth, density-distance curve, Mediterranean Europe].