Response spectra for the deep sediment-filled Rhône Valley in the Swiss Alps

We present numerical modeling of earthquake ground motion for various profiles across the Swiss Rhône Valley and characterize the seismic response in terms of spectral acceleration. First, we evaluate the relative amplification of 2D with respect to 1D response. Then, we show how the selected bedrock spectrum influences the response spectra of the valley sites. Particular attention is paid to how the internal sediment structure and the often weakly constrained Q-factor shape the seismic response. Results obtained for the different profiles are compared with reference spectra (Swiss building code and Eurocode 8) and for one profile with recorded data as well. From this comparison, we infer that the surficial layer strongly influences spectral acceleration values between 0.1 and 1 s. The total thickness of sediments significantly affects the seismic response at longer periods around the fundamental period of the studied valley sections between 1.8 and 3.6 s.     

Seismic response and energy dissipation of 3D complex steel buildings considering the influence of interior semi-rigid connections: low- medium- and high-rise

A numerical investigation regarding the seismic behavior of complex-3D steel buildings with perimeter moment resisting frames (PMRF) and interior gravity frames (GF) is conducted. The interior connections are assumed to be first perfectly pinned (PP) and then semi-rigid (SR); the two model responses are compared. Three steel building models representing low-, medium- and high-rise buildings, and several strong motions are used. The relative stiffness of SR connections is calculated according to the Richard Model and the Beam Line Theory. The Ruaumoko Computer Program is used to perform the required step-by-step nonlinear seismic analysis. Results indicate that interstory shears and interstory displacements at PMRF may be significantly reduced when interior connections are modeled as SR. Average reductions of up to 20, 46 and 11% are observed for interstory shears, for low-, medium-, and high-rise buildings, respectively. The corresponding reductions for interstory displacements are about 14, 44 and 15%. The contribution of GF to the lateral resistance is considerable, which significantly increases when the connections are modeled as SR; relative contributions larger than 80% are observed. The dissipated energy (DE) at PMRF is larger for the buildings with PP than for the buildings with SR connections indicating that damage at PMRF is reduced. Thus, the effect of the stiffness and the DE at interior connections should not be ignored. However, the design of some elements, particularly columns of the GF, has to be revised; these members may not be able to support the loads produced by the neglected lateral contribution if they are not properly designed.     

Transformation of social capital during and after a disaster event: the cases Chañaral and Diego de Almagro,Atacama Region,Chile

Natural Hazards - This article analyzes the impact of socio-natural disasters on social capital at a local level, studying the cases of the communities of Chañaral and Diego de Almagro after...     

Vulnerability and adaptation in a dryland community of the Elqui Valley, Chile

Livelihoods in drylands are already challenged by the demands of climate variability, and climate change is expected to have further implications for water resource availability in these regions. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of an irrigation-dependent agricultural community located in the Elqui River Basin of Northern Chile to water and climate-related conditions in light of climate change. The paper documents the exposures and sensitivities faced by the community in light of current water shortages, and identifies their ability to manage these exposures under a changing climate. The IPCC identifies potentially increased aridity in this region with climate change; furthermore, the Elqui River is fed by snowmelt and glaciers, and its flows will be affected by a warming climate. Community vulnerability occurs within a broader physical, economic, political and social context, and vulnerability in the community varies amongst occupations, resource uses and accessibility to water resources, making some more susceptible to changing conditions in the future. This case study highlights the need for adaptation to current land and water management practices to maintain livelihoods in the face of changes many people are not expecting.     

The effect of climate change on the mobility and stability of coastal sand dunes in Ceará State (NE Brazil)

The coast of Ceará State in NE Brazil is covered by vast fields of active and stabilized coastal sand dunes. Its tropical climate is characterized by two seasons, wet and dry, with wind intensity determined by the meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The wind power is negatively correlated with precipitation, and precipitation is negatively correlated with the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic north and south of the equator. We present a model suggesting that during the Late Pleistocene wind power determined the mobility and stability of the dunes. Sand dunes accumulated during periods of high wind power (as it is today) and stabilized when wind power was low. Once the dunes were stabilized by vegetation they could not be activated even by increased wind power. Samples that were taken for luminescence dating from 25 stabilized dunes along the coasts of Ceará gave ages ranging from135 ka to < 100 yr. We postulate that these luminescence ages fall at the beginning of wet periods in NE Brazil characterized by low wind power. These paleoclimatic wet periods correlate well with the cold periods of stades in Greenland ice-core records.     

Observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 around the Deep Impact event by the OSIRIS cameras onboard Rosetta

The OSIRIS cameras on the Rosetta spacecraft observed Comet 9P/Tempel 1 from 5 days before to 10 days after it was hit by the Deep Impact projectile. The Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) monitored the cometary dust in 5 different filters. The Wide Angle Camera (WAC) observed through filters sensitive to emissions from OH, CN, Na, and OI together with the associated continuum. Before and after the impact the comet showed regular variations in intensity. The period of the brightness changes is consistent with the rotation period of Tempel 1. The overall brightness of Tempel 1 decreased by about 10% during the OSIRIS observations. The analysis of the impact ejecta shows that no new permanent coma structures were created by the impact. Most of the material moved with . Much of it left the comet in the form of icy grains which sublimated and fragmented within the first hour after the impact. The light curve of the comet after the impact and the amount of material leaving the comet ( of water ice and a presumably larger amount of dust) suggest that the impact ejecta were quickly accelerated by collisions with gas molecules. Therefore, the motion of the bulk of the ejecta cannot be described by ballistic trajectories, and the validity of determinations of the density and tensile strength of the nucleus of Tempel 1 with models using ballistic ejection of particles is uncertain.     

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.     

Influence of intensity of motion on the seismic response of structures with asymmetric force-deformation curves

Asymmetrically yielding single-degree-of-freedom elastoplastic systems are subjected to simulated accelerograms based on El Centro-NS, 1940 ground motion (wide frequency band) to calculate the corresponding ductility demands. Results are compared with those corresponding to simulated accelerograms of the SCT-EW, 1985 Mexico earthquake (narrow frequency band) obtained in a previous work. Results obtained reveal that the characteristics of the excitation influence the response of asymmetrically yielding structures and that the differences found on responses corresponding to both earthquakes are due to frequency content, duration and/or intensity of motion. The effect of the latter concepts is studied using modulating sinusoidal excitations as well as accelerograms recorded on soft and hard soils of Mexico City. Two alternate expressions are proposed to evaluate the increase in ductility demands of structures with asymmetric force-displacement curves with respect to symmetric ones. Those expressions take into account motion intensity and duration, as well as seismic design coefficient.     

Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador

Abstract

Water discharge and suspended and dissolved sediment data from three rivers (Napo, Pastaza and Santiago) in the Ecuadorian Amazon basin and a river in the Pacific basin (Esmeraldas) over a 9-year period, are presented. This data set allows us to present: (a) the chemical weathering rates; (b) the erosion rates, calculated from the suspended sediment from the Andean basin; (c) the spatio-temporal variability of the two regions; and (d) the relationship between this variability and the precipitation, topography, lithology and seismic activity of the area. The dissolved solids load from the Esmeraldas basin was 2 × 10⁶ t year^-1, whereas for the Napo, Pastaza and Santiago basins, it was 4, 2 and 3 × 10⁶ t year^-1, respectively. For stations in the Andean piedmont of Ecuador, the relationship between surface sediment and the total sediment concentration was found to be close to one. This is due to minimal stratification of the suspended sediment in the vertical profile, which is attributed to turbulence and high vertical water speeds. However, during the dry season, when the water speed decreases, sediment stratification appears, but this effect can be neglected in the sediment flux calculations due to low concentration rates. The suspended sediment load in the Pacific basin was 6 × 10⁶ t year^-1, and the total for the three Amazon basins was 47 × 10⁶ t year^-1. The difference between these contributions of the suspended sediment load is likely due to the tectonic uplift and the seismic and volcanic dynamics that occur on the Amazon side.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Armijos, E., Laraque, A., Barba, S., Bourrel, L., Ceron, C., Lagane, C., Magat, P., Moquet, J.-S., Pombosa, R., Sondag, F., Vauchel, P., Vera, A., and Guyot, J.L., 2013. Yields of suspended sediment and dissolved solids from the Andean basins of Ecuador. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1478–1494.     

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.