Incorporating subjective and stochastic uncertainty in an interactive multi-objective groundwater calibration framework

The interactive multi-objective genetic algorithm (IMOGA) combines traditional optimization with an interactive framework that considers the subjective knowledge of hydro-geological experts in addition to quantitative calibration measures such as calibration errors and regularization to solve the groundwater inverse problem. The IMOGA is inherently a deterministic framework and identifies multiple large-scale parameter fields (typically head and transmissivity data are used to identify transmissivity fields). These large-scale parameter fields represent the optimal trade-offs between the different criteria (quantitative and qualitative) used in the IMOGA. This paper further extends the IMOGA to incorporate uncertainty both in the large-scale trends as well as the small-scale variability (which can not be resolved using the field data) in the parameter fields. The different parameter fields identified by the IMOGA represent the uncertainty in large-scale trends, and this uncertainty is modeled using a Bayesian approach where calibration error, regularization, and the expert’s subjective preference are combined to compute a likelihood metric for each parameter field. Small-scale (stochastic) variability is modeled using a geostatistical approach and added onto the large-scale trends identified by the IMOGA. This approach is applied to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) case-study. Results, with and without expert interaction, are analyzed and the impact that expert judgment has on predictive uncertainty at the WIPP site is discussed. It is shown that for this case, expert interaction leads to more conservative solutions as the expert compensates for some of the lack of data and modeling approximations introduced in the formulation of the problem.     

Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a dimethylsulfide production model in the Arctic ocean

The global climate is intimately connected to changes in the polar oceans. The variability of sea ice coverage affects deep-water formations and large-scale thermohaline circulation patterns. The polar radiative budget is sensitive to sea-ice loss and consequent surface albedo changes. Aerosols and polar cloud microphysics are crucial players in the radiative energy balance of the Arctic Ocean. The main biogenic source of sulfate aerosols to the atmosphere above remote seas is dimethylsulfide (DMS). Recent research suggests the flux of DMS to the Arctic atmosphere may change markedly under global warming. This paper describes climate data and DMS production (based on the five years from 1998 to 2002) in the region of the Barents Sea (30–35°E and 70–80°N). A DMS model is introduced together with an updated calibration method. A genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the chlorophyll-a (CHL) measurements (based on satellite SeaWiFS data) and DMS content (determined from cruise data collected in the Arctic). Significant interannual variation of the CHL amount leads to significant interannual variability in the observed and modeled production of DMS in the study region. Strong DMS production in 1998 could have been caused by a large amount of ice algae being released in the southern region. Forcings from a general circulation model (CSIRO Mk3) were applied to the calibrated DMS model to predict the zonal mean sea-to-air flux of DMS for contemporary and enhanced greenhouse conditions at 70–80°N. It was found that significantly decreasing ice coverage, increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing mixed-layer depth could lead to annual DMS flux increases of more than 100% by the time of equivalent CO₂ tripling (the year 2080). This significant perturbation in the aerosol climate could have a large impact on the regional Arctic heat budget and consequences for global warming.     

The distribution of trace metals in Florida Bay sediments

The distribution of trace metals based on surface sediments collected at 40 stations across Florida Bay was done in June, November and February 2000-2001. Concentrations of Sc, V, Ba, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Zn, Al and Mg were determined by ICP-MS, and the total Fe was determined by spectrophotometry. Organic carbon (OC), nitrogen (N), and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) were also measured. Eleven of 13 metals showed a similar distribution pattern for the various months studied. Maximum concentrations of metals were lower than those found in most estuarine systems and were concentrated in the north-central and western zones of the Bay. The Mn and Fe concentrations, unlike the other metals, gradually decreased from north (Everglades) to south (Florida Keys). Some metals (Ni, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb and Ba) associated with petroleum use showed high concentrations at stations near the Tavernier marina. Florida Bay sediments are predominately CaCO3 (65.9-92.5%). The greatest value for OC (5.5%) and the lowest value of CaCO3 (65.9%) were found in the western zone. Trace metal distribution patterns are similar to the OC and N in the sediments. There was a strong correlation between most metals (V>Cu>Ni>Cr>Al>Co>Ba>Zn>Pb>Mg) and the percentage of OC. The maximum C/N values (9-12) were observed at the stations with the highest OC, where dense colonies of seagrass are found and most of the metals are concentrated. All metals except Mg, Mn and Co showed a strong correlation with Al and the fine fraction of the sediments (aluminosilicates) associated with continental input and river runoff.     

Modelling of hydrodynamics and cohesive sediment transport in Tanshui River estuarine system,Taiwan

A laterally averaged two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate hydrodynamics and cohesive sediment transport in the Tanshui River estuarine system. The model handles tributaries as well as the main stem of the estuarine system. Observed time series of salinity data and tidally averaged salinity distributions have been compared with model results to calibrate the turbulent diffusion coefficients. The overall model verification is achieved with comparisons of residual currents and salinity distribution. The model reproduces the prototype water surface elevation, currents and salinity distributions. Comparisons of the suspended cohesive sediment concentrations calculated by the numerical model and the field data at various stations show good agreement. The validated model is applied to investigate the tidally averaged salinity distributions, residual circulation and suspended sediment concentration under low flow conditions in the Tanshui River estuarine system. The model results show that the limit of salt intrusion in the mainstem estuary is located at Hsin-Hai bridge in Tahan Stream, 26 km from the River mouth under Q75 flow. The null point is located at the head of salt intrusion, using 1 ppt isohaline as an indicator. The tidally averaged sediment concentration distribution exhibits a local maximum around the null point.     

Genesis of amethyst geodes in basaltic rocks of the Serra Geral Formation (Ametista do Sul,Rio Grande do Sul,Brazil): a fluid inclusion,REE, oxygen,carbon, and Sr isotope study on basalt,quartz, and calcite

In the Ametista do Sul area, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, amethyst-bearing geodes are hosted by a ~40- to 50-m-thick subhorizontal high-Ti basaltic lava flow of the Lower Cretaceous Paraná Continental Flood Basalt Province. The typically spherical cap-shaped, sometimes vertically elongated geodes display an outer rim of celadonite followed inwards by agate and colorless and finally amethystine quartz. Calcite formed throughout the whole crystallization sequence, but most commonly as very late euhedral crystals, sometimes with gypsum, in the central cavity. Fluid inclusions in colorless quartz and amethyst are predominantly monophase and contain an aqueous liquid. Two-phase liquid–vapor inclusions are rare. Some with a consistent degree of fill homogenize into the liquid between 95 and 98 °C. Ice-melting temperatures in the absence of a vapor phase between –4 and +4 °C indicate low salinities. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of calcites are highly variable and show generally no systematic correlation with the paragenetic sequence. The oxygen isotope composition of calcites is very homogeneous (δ¹⁸O_VSMOW=24.9±1.1‰, n=34) indicating crystallization temperatures of less than 100 °C. Carbon isotope values of calcites show a considerable variation ranging from –18.7 to –2.9‰ (VPDB). The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of calcites varies between 0.706 and 0.708 and is more radiogenic than that of the host basalt (~0.705). The most likely source of silica, calcium, carbon, and minor elements in the infill of the geodes is the highly reactive interstitial glass of the host basalts leached by gas-poor aqueous solutions of meteoric origin ascending from the locally artesian Botucatú aquifer system in the footwall of the volcanic sequence. The genesis of amethyst geodes in basalts at Ametista do Sul, Brazil, is thus considered as a two-stage process with an early magmatic protogeode formation and a late, low temperature infill of the cavity. Editorial handling: A. Cheilletz     

A Multiscale Vision Model to Analyse Field Astronomical Images

We have implemented a multiscale vision model based on the wavelet transform to analyse field astronomical images. The discrete transform is performed by the à trous algorithm. The vision model is based on the notion of significant structures. We identify the pixels of the associated wavelet transform space (WTS) with the objects. For each scale a region labelling is carried out. An interscale connectivity graph is then established. In accordance with some rules that permit false detections to be removed, the objects and their sub-objects are identified. They define respectively trees and sub-trees in the graph. In this way, the identification of the WTS pixels of the tree related to a given object leads to the reconstruction of its image by the conjugate gradient method. The model has been tested successfully on simulated images of stars and galaxies which allow us to show the capabilities of the detection and restoration procedures of the model. Finally, tests on real images show that one can analyse complex structures better than with classical astronomical vision models.     

Stochastic continuum modeling of flow and transport in a crystalline rock mass: Fanay-Augères,France, revisited

A stochastic discrete-fracture model was used by Cacas et al.^a,b to interpret flow measurements and transport experiments in a fractured crystalline rock mass at Fanay-Augères. They considered continuum models to be incapable of properly interpreting small-scale measurements or tracer tests in fractured systems, which, in their view, require three-dimensional modeling of numerous discrete channels; in their opinion, continuum modeling applies only to average flow on a relatively large scale. Cacas et al. considered their discrete fracture model to have been validated by its demonstrated ability to reproduce selected experimental results. In this paper, flow and transport at Fanay-Augères are modeled by viewing the fractured rock as a stochastic continuum in a manner originally proposed by Neuman^c,d. The stochastic continuum approach obviates the need for detailed information about fracture geometry or assumptions about how individual fractures control flow and transport. All it requires is the delineation of a few dominant features, which can be embedded into the stochastic continuum model as heterogeneous porous slabs. Though a fault zone has been identified at the Fanay-Augères experimental site, it has been modeled neither by Cacas et al. nor in this paper. In fact, in this paper, a larger selection of experimental results than those considered by Cacas et al. are reproduced merely by modeling the rock as a statistically homogeneous continuum in two dimensions. These results demonstrate that a continuum approach may be well suited for the analysis of flow and transport in fractured rock. This does not constitute a validation of the continuum approach, just as the results of Cacas et al. fall short of validating the discrete fracture approach. Instead, the two sets of results illustrate jointly the well-established principle that an open system, especially one as complex as fractured hydrogeologic environments tend to be, cannot be described uniquely on the basis of sparse data and need not be described in great detail to capture its salient behavior by a model.^a Cacas MC, Ledoux E, de Marsily G, Barbreau A, Calmels P, Gaillard B, Margritta R (1990a) Modelling fracture flow with a stochastic discrete fracture network: calibration and validation. 1. The flow model. Water Resour Res 26(3):479–489^b Cacas MC, Ledoux E, de Marsily G, Barbreau A, Calmels P, Gaillard B, Margritta R (1990b) Modelling fracture flow with a stochastic discrete fracture network: calibration and validation. 2. The transport model. Water Resour Res 26(3):491–500^c Neuman SP (1987) Stochastic continuum representation of fractured rock permeability as an alternative to the REV and fracture network concepts, in Rock Mechanics. In: Farmer IW, Daemen JJK, Desai CS, Glass CE, Neuman SP (eds) Proceedings of the 28th U.S. Symposium, Tucson, Arizona. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 533–561^d Neuman SP (1988) A proposed conceptual framework and methodology for investigating flow and transport in Swedish crystalline rocks. SKB Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm, September, Arbetsrapport 88–37, 39 pp     

BIOGEOGRAPHY: RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES FOR GEOGRAPHERS

The authors of this paper suggest several themes in biogeography worthy of increased research attention by geographers: human impacts on biota, disturbance ecology, and certain aspects of biota-environment interactions. Researchers must gain a firmer command of biological as well as geographical concepts and approaches if biogeography is to join geomorphology and climatology in developing a true geography of environments.